X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The RBC Canadian Open Golf Advice (2023)

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The RBC Canadian Open

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

  • A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
  • The RBC Canadian Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

  • Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
  • All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
  • Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
  • Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
  • Units: +311.229 Units
  • All Totals Are Entering 2023
  • Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

  • Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

First-Round Leader Article

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

  • 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
  • Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

  • We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

  • Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

 

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 5

 

Last Five Winners Of The RBC Canadian Open

2022 Rory McIlroy -19
2021
2020
2019 Rory McIlroy -22
2018 Dustin Johnson -23

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018

 

Oakdale Golf & Country Club

7,264 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass/Poa

Inconsistent yardage expectations are pronounced for a venue that measures 7,264 yards but can play between varying ranges, including up to 200 yards more than this total on any given day. Those unknown commodities are troubling from a betting perspective since they can vastly alter price points and create a substandard output. However, it is worth mentioning that these are the weeks where you can take advantage of some of that "groupthink" mentality in DFS contests since the ability to formulate projections and compare them to how other users think will start generating a game theory optimal route that you can consider.

Unfortunately, I do believe most gamers are correct that the track will play marginally similar to how it looks on paper. Eight par-four holes between 354 to 432 yards begin to tell this picture of short iron play and the need to make putts. Still, I think the one difference I took inside my model over what I have seen from others was the recalculations I ran to mimic a property with some strong corollaries to specific game types.

The forecasts for thick rough might be a little too overbearing for some in their models since I do not believe that accuracy golfers see a substantial boost over those with distance. When getting technical, I ran a 60/40 split in favor of accuracy over length. Still, this is all about creating opportunities and realizing those chances when combining weighted proximity and projected make percentages between 5-15 feet.

Essentially, find me the golfer that best creates opportunities to make birdie and then add the likelihood that they make that putt from the critical distances. For me, that will be the player that walks out of the week victorious.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Oakdale PGA Average
Driving Distance 283
Driving Accuracy 61%
GIR Percentage 65%
Scrambling Percentage 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Long Rough (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Birdie or Better (10%)

 

Expected Realization Of Opportunities (10%)

 

OTT + Approach (10%)

 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Top 50 In All Six Categories:

Last week was the first time I included this answer. All 13 qualifying names made the cut. 

*** Collin Morikawa withdrew Sunday

This Week:

Tyrrell Hatton 1
Rory McIlroy 2
Justin Rose 3
Sam Burns 4
Tommy Fleetwood 5
Corey Conners 6
Matthew Fitzpatrick 7
Cameron Young 8
Keith Mitchell 9
Ludvig Aberg 10
Adam Svensson 14
Brendon Todd 16
Adam Hadwin 19

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

I am going to change the article this week and highlight one player in each section. You can dive deeper into the field inside of my 'Final DraftKings' article here at RotoBaller.

All three of Rory McIlroy/Sam Burns/Tyrrell Hatton are under consideration and should be viewed as incredibly playable for all the obvious reasons. Each graded inside the top 10 of at least five categories out of the six I ran and also featured as this week's 13 names to rank in the top 50 for all sections. That is a firm answer that keeps everyone under consideration, but let's highlight Sam Burns because of his early under-the-radar ownership.

Burns has been trending with back-to-back top-16 finishes over the previous two weeks and was one of two golfers (Cameron Young) to rank inside the top 10 of all metrics I ran this week. That consistency is getting overlooked by gamers clicking more frequently on other options, making Burns one of the savvier plays to consider near the top of the board. 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I already alluded to my intrigue for Cameron Young in the section above, but things have gotten carried away when looking at his weekly performances.

The ball striking has remained intact throughout the recent poor stretch, and I believe that Oakdale might be the ideal venue that accentuates his strengths and diminishes his inferior qualities.

Young ranks an impressive first for weighted proximity at this week's anticipated venue, and the key to the puzzle might be his 23rd-place rank for putting between 5-15 feet. That was the same answer that made him nearly crash my model at the 'Match Play,' creating a seventh-place grade for expected realization from opportunities created.

Add that to a first-place rank for birdie or better percentage, and I legitimately think Young incorrectly goes massively under-owned at a course that plays into his strengths. I would not be surprised if he finds his first victory at this track.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

It looks like a strong $8,000 group. Four of these names cracked the top 50 in all six categories. We had a handful more on top of that list who should be considered in various builds, but my early favorite is Keith Mitchell.

Mitchell continues not to produce when looking at only his results, but many of these finishes have been stunted by a poor round that has seen him free-fall down the leaderboard.

The American was amongst the nine players this week to rank in the top 10 for both weighted scoring and weighted strokes gained total. In fairness, that is an output expectation that mainly featured the same weights, but he joined a list of McIlroy, Young, Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood, Rose, Burns, Conners and Hatton as the only players to land under that answer.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

I always seem to be the one that jumps back in on "injuries," but I am not convinced Brendon Todd removing himself from the event is the same as when Collin Morikawa did it last week. 

Todd had shot a Thursday 79 and was already doing the same on Friday before removing himself from the field. If that causes a decrease in ownership from the only player inside my model to crack the top 50 of all six categories in the $7,000s, I am fine taking a shot on that sub-10 percent going rate. 

We will dive into these other names more as the week goes on for those wondering where I stand in different spots. Names like Ben Griffn are strongly leaning toward being in the player pool. 

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

I'll condense this list down more when we get better ownership. Overall, I am not in love with the $6,000s.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alex Newhook50 mins ago

Expected To Be In Canadiens Lineup To Start Regular Season
Joel Armia1 hour ago

Expected To Be Available For Start Of Season
Rhys Hoskins2 hours ago

To Stay Ready In Florida
Luis Arraez2 hours ago

Returns For Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Jameson Williams2 hours ago

Says He's "Ready To Go"
Ja Morant4 hours ago

Permitted To Travel, Practice During Suspension
Kristaps Porzingis4 hours ago

"Ready To Go" For Training Camp
James Harden5 hours ago

Expected To Join 76ers In Colorado
Pat Freiermuth6 hours ago

"Doubtful" To Play In Week 5
Kenny Pickett6 hours ago

Scheduled To Practice Wednesday
Royce Lewis7 hours ago

Hitting Third In Return To Twins Lineup
Michael Lorenzen7 hours ago

Left Off Roster, Orion Kerkering Included
Cole Perfetti7 hours ago

Returns To Action With An Assist
Byron Buxton7 hours ago

Left Off Roster For Wild-Card Series
Jakub Vrana7 hours ago

Enjoying Good Preseason With Blues
Tampa Bay Rays7 hours ago

Jose Siri Makes Playoff Roster, Luke Raley Left Off
Torey Krug8 hours ago

Logs Over 24 Minutes In Preseason Debut
Jesper Bratt8 hours ago

Totals Four Points Versus Islanders
Joonas Korpisalo8 hours ago

Shuts Out Penguins With 40 Saves
New England Patriots8 hours ago

Matthew Judon To Have Surgery, Expected To Miss At Least Two Months
Pavel Francouz8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Start Of Season
Jameson Williams8 hours ago

To Debut In Supporting Role
Mike Evans8 hours ago

Undergoing MRI Exam
Anthony Davis10 hours ago

Aims To Play In All 82 Regular-Season Games
Larry Nance11 hours ago

Pelicans Hope To Have Larry Nance Jr. Ready For Season Opener
Zion Williamson11 hours ago

Worked On Being "Unguardable" In Offseason
Kenrich Williams11 hours ago

Fully Healthy Ahead Of New Season
Cameron Johnson11 hours ago

Misses Start Of Training Camp
Christian Koloko11 hours ago

Ruled Out Indefinitely
Geno Smith18 hours ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Pat Freiermuth19 hours ago

Likely Out 2-3 Weeks
Joe Ryan19 hours ago

To Start Game 3 If Needed
Philadelphia Phillies19 hours ago

Trea Turner Healthy For Wild-Card Series
Darren Waller19 hours ago

Has Another Dreadful Performance In Week 4
Javonte Williams19 hours ago

Shouldn't Miss Much Time
Daniel Jones19 hours ago

Sacked 11 Times In Blowout Loss
Corbin Burnes21 hours ago

To Start Game 1 Against Diamondbacks
Byron Buxton21 hours ago

Unlikely To Be On Roster For Wild-Card Series
Carlos Correa21 hours ago

Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa Expected To Be Ready For Wild-Card Series
Jordan Montgomery21 hours ago

To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Geno Smith21 hours ago

Returns In The Second Half
Geno Smith22 hours ago

Questionable To Return With Knee Injury
Bones Hyland22 hours ago

Likely To Be Backup Point Guard
Seattle Seahawks22 hours ago

Jamal Adams Will Not Return On Monday Night
Trey Murphy22 hours ago

III Could Be Back In November
Domantas Sabonis22 hours ago

Is Fully Healthy
Kevin Gausman23 hours ago

To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Bryce McGowens23 hours ago

Dealing With Minor Injury
Gordon Hayward23 hours ago

Healthy Entering Camp
Matthew Stafford23 hours ago

"Should Be Good" For Week 5
Kyren Williams23 hours ago

Dealing With Hip Contusion
Saquon Barkley1 day ago

Officially Inactive On Monday Night
Radim Simek1 day ago

Opening Night Availability In Doubt
Ivan Miroshnichenko1 day ago

Getting Strong Opportunity With Capitals
Jansen Harkins1 day ago

Claimed Off Waivers By Penguins
Trevor Zegras1 day ago

Ducks Agree To Three-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Cowboys Not Concerned With Micah Parsons' Injury
Josh Manson1 day ago

Expected To Be Ready For Opening Night
New England Patriots1 day ago

Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez Out Indefinitely
Buffalo Bills1 day ago

Tre'Davious White Done For The Year
Kenny Pickett1 day ago

Dealing With Bone Bruise
Evan Mobley1 day ago

Adds Seven Pounds Of Muscle
Max Strus1 day ago

Expects To Start This Season
Devin Vassell1 day ago

Spurs Agree To Extension
Minnesota Twins1 day ago

Royce Lewis Unsure If He'll Be Ready For Wild-Card Series
Brandon Woodruff1 day ago

To Miss Wild-Card Series With Shoulder Injury
Devin Vassell1 day ago

Wants To Remain With The Spurs
Keldon Johnson1 day ago

Ready To Show He's A Good Defender
Isaiah Livers1 day ago

Out 6-8 Weeks With Ankle Sprain
Jonathan Isaac1 day ago

Expected To Fully Participate In Training Camp
Luis Arraez1 day ago

Expected To Return In Game 1?
Max Scherzer1 day ago

Limited To Flat-Ground Work
Brandon Pfaadt1 day ago

To Start Game 1 For D-Backs
Martin Truex Jr1 day ago

. Finishes 19th At Talladega
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Starts Strong But Finishes Poorly At Talladega
Drake Batherson1 day ago

Racks Up Four Points In Preseason Win
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Underwhelms At Talladega
Matthew Knies1 day ago

Shining In Preseason
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Progressing From Upper-Body Injury
Brad Keselowski1 day ago

Earns Crucial Stage Win At Talladega
Daniil Tarasov1 day ago

Doubtful For Start Of Season
Kyle Palmieri1 day ago

Has Started Skating But Remains Absent For Islanders
Samuel Savoie1 day ago

Undergoes Successful Surgery
Kevin Harvick1 day ago

Has Runner-Up Finish Stripped Due To DQ
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Championship Hopes In Great Shape After Talladega
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Wins Talladega, Advances To Round Of Eight
JesĂşs Luzardo2 days ago

Jesus Luzardo Set To Start Game 1
Tampa Bay Rays2 days ago

Tyler Glasnow Expected To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Zack Wheeler2 days ago

To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Cole Sillinger2 days ago

Might Start Campaign In AHL
2 days ago

Brandon Sutter Announces Retirement
NASCAR3 days ago

J.J Yeley Tries To Duplicate Spring Talladega Magic
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Begins Fourth At Talladega On Sunday
Erik Jones3 days ago

Contends Well At Talladega And It Shows
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Use A Little Luck At Talladega
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Starts 14th At Talladega On Sunday
Brennan Poole3 days ago

Could Move Up On Sunday
Daniel Suarez3 days ago

Keeps Improving At Talladega
Harrison Burton3 days ago

Has Some Good News Sunday
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Cracks Top Ten In Qualifying
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Likes To Lead Laps At Talladega
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace Runs Well At Talladega
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Starts 13th At Talladega On Sunday Again
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Worth A Shot At Talladega
Alex Bowman3 days ago

Will Start 20th At Talladega

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP