RADIO
We have another big eleven-game slate on this Wednesday night, which gives us a ton of spots to take advantage of. We have some massive injury news in Luka Doncic being out, which is sure to concentrate some ownership to Dallas. This will result in some #BadChalk, which we will do our best to avoid here when we talk about that spot a little bit later.
We also have a few teams getting healthy and returning some studs that have missed time (Khris Middleton, Bradley Beal), that gives us some easy teams to scratch off the list as well to narrow our pool. Let's get into this.
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NBA DFS: Best Team Matchups
Thunder vs. Rockets
Houston is not a good basketball team. They recently took over the top spot in DraftKings points allowed per game at 244. They allow 91 shot attempts per game, 39.6 three-point attempts, and 21.7 free throws attempts. All of those figures are fourth worst in the league. The Thunder currently don't have any players benefiting from other players being listed out, which makes these plays a little bit thin on such a big slate, but I can absolutely get behind the high-usage Thunder players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (18.2 FGA/36) and Lu Dort (14.1 FGA/36).
Rockets vs. Thunder
On the other side of that, the Rockets are in a pretty good spot as well. The Thunder allow the fifth-most DraftKings points per game at 237 while being in the bottom five in field goals and three-point attempts allowed as well. They've also been brutalized on the boards, allowing 48.5 rebounds per game. The problem is that the Rockets don't score many fantasy points, and they distribute those points pretty evenly. Since November 6th, five different players have a 10% or greater share of the team's fantasy points. Christian Wood leads them with a 13.8% share of DraftKings points over that time and a 17.4% share for the year. He would be the only guy I'd feel very confident in here, but I probably won't end up on him given all the other more attractive options we have.
Wizards vs. Hornets
The Hornets have given up the second-most fantasy points per game at 241.4, and are second in the league in rebounds allowed at 48.6. Since November 1st, they've given up 247.2 fantasy points per game to lead the league. The issue here is that Bradley Beal is back after missing several games, which means the team is wildly overpriced. You can make the case to play Beal, but everybody else has their salaries priced as if Beal wasn't playing, which just isn't going to work for us tonight.
NBA DFS: Significant Missing Players
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks: This is by far the biggest news on the slate, as Doncic left the Mavericks' last game late and was quickly ruled out for tonight as well. The salaries have not adjusted for this, meaning we are sure to see some Mavericks really smash their price tags. Doncic was playing 35 minutes a game while scoring 1.48 DraftKings points per minute, taking 22 shots (eight three-pointers), grabbing eight rebounds, and adding eight assists. His absence is likely to reduce the Mavs' overall fantasy point production, but most of those points will be absorbed by teammates.
The sharp move here is to just go guessing on the cheap guys, but to play the Mavericks players that have already shown their willingness to shoot the ball. The Mavericks usage leaders behind Doncic are Kristaps Porzingis (39%), Jalen Brunson (21%), and Tim Hardaway (19%). Those three are the best plays in my book, as they have the most lock-in minutes projections while also consistently being the ones to shoot the ball when Doncic isn't. You can also make the case here for Frank Ntilikina (he's scored a recptable .77 DraftKings points per minute while averaging 14 minutes per game), but we can't be as confident that he will see a huge minutes boost in this spot. For cash, I'm all over Porzingis and Brunson tonight.
Jarrett Allen, Collin Sexton, Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs are worn down to the bone right now as their three leading fantasy scorers will not play tonight. That gives us huge opportunities from this lineup. Kevin Love will return tonight, which makes him pretty interesting for a cheap price tag, but you really have to be concerned that they will seriously limit his minutes tonight. The three players popping off most in the data models are Cedi Osman, Dean Wade, and Isaac Okoro. All three are projected for 32 minutes, and it is hard to see them not reaching at least that many given how few bodies the Cavaliers have. None of them have been high-usage players this year, but again - somebody has to shoot and pass the ball tonight for the Cavaliers.
You could go ahead and play Ricky Rubio as well, but his price is up to the point where there isn't a ton of upside to it - although he's a good bet for 20+ shot attempts in this spot.
We saw the Cavaliers play without both Sexton and Allen on Monday night, and that resulted in huge fantasy games from Osman (played 31 minutes and shot the ball 17 times) and Rubio (20 shots), with Okoro more than meeting price-considered value (he took eight shots in 31.5 minutes). Mobley played most of that game and took 11 shots of his own, so there are just so many opportunities to go around tonight - you will want to put a couple of Cavs into your lineup tonight.
Nikola Vucevic (Chicago Bulls): It's been the DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine show since Vucevic hit the shelf. Those two have combined for 30, 49, and 45 shot attempts in those three games. They have seen their prices go up, which cuts off a lot of the upside, and there's also the issue of Coby White returning (albeit slowly) from injury. He played just 11 minutes on Monday and took two shots, but as his minutes ramp up he will slightly chip into what DeRozan, LaVine, and Lonzo Ball are doing for the Bulls. I don't think the Bulls big two players here are priority plays, but they certainly have very usable floors and enough ceiling to matter if the shots are falling tonight.
NBA DFS: Minutes Gainers
Minutes equal money in the game of NBA DFS. Here's a look at today's biggest minutes gainers based on projections.
We've already talked about the situation with Cleveland, but another team that stands out in terms of adding on some minutes could be the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They are going to be again without De'Andre Hunter, and we also are seeing Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter being questionable. Those are three wing players that are firmly in the Hawks' rotation, so if they're all out it would open up tons of minutes and shot shot attempts for guys like Cam Reddish and Danilo Gallinary, both of those names would make for nice plays (albeit lower ceiling with Trae Young and John Collins ready to go tonight).
NBA DFS: Salary Drops
Domantas Sabonis has seen a price decline, reaching $8,800 tonight. There's no real reason to get excited about that play when we have all these other great spots, but Sabonis does remain with a 60 point ceiling which would be a smash at his newfound price tag. Tim Hardaway has also seen his price come down despite him finding himself in the best spot of the year tonight, and you can check out some of the other names above there and give these guys a further look if you feel like it.
Here are the top value projections for tonight. This table will be updated throughout the day.
The top players have really seen their prices get way up there, especially on the bigger slates. I really don't see Giannis Antetokounmpo being a great idea in cash games tonight at that exorbitant price tag, and we see both of the Nets big fantasy scorers clearing $11,000 for the first time year as well. The studs I'm most interested in at this point are Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Top Plays
I tend to take a more high-level, data-oriented approach to this article. And I understand some people like that, but more likely you're just here looking for the top plays. I'll try to summarize that here, but these are likely to change throughout the day - so please follow me on Twitter and I'll send out those updates. For right now, here are the data model's favorite plays (I do some editing myself here to get rid of guys with floors and/or ceilings that are just too low):
Cheap ($4,500 and below): Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, Chimezie Metu
Mid-Range ($4,600 - $7,000): Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Ricky Rubio, Deandre Ayton
Expensive ($7,000+): Kristaps Porzingis, Anthony Davis, Zach LaVine
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