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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC Vegas 99: Hernandez vs. Pereira on 10/19/24. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Another weekend, another UFC Vegas event as the UFC returns to the Apex for another fight night, this time headlined by top-15 middleweight contenders Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez. The pairing was expected to take place at UFC 306 before being moved to the UFC Vegas 99 event.
In the co-main event, we have Kyler Phillips taking on UFC veteran Rob Font. Also on the card, Sumudaerji of China takes on American Charles Johnson at bantamweight. Jake Hadley faces Cameron Smotherman in another bantamweight bout. Plus, Darren Elkins squares off against Daniel Pineda in an all-American contest at featherweight. "The Ultimate Fighter" veterans Brad Katona and Jessica Penne are also on the card, locking horns with Jean Matsumoto and Elise Reed, respectively.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 99: Hernandez vs. Pereira on 10/19/24. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Hernandez, $8,300 - vs. Michel Pereira
In the main event of UFC Vegas 99, Anthony Hernandez is scheduled to take on always dangerous Michel Pereira, with hopes of jumping in the rankings and cracking into the top 10 with a win. Hernandez is coming off a submission victory over Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 and Pereira was last seen in action on the main card of UFC 301 where he defeated Ihor Potieria via submission.
Don't mess with Fluffy on the ground 👀 @ILoveBamf seeks his sixth straight victory at #UFCVegas99!
[ Watch On @ESPNPlus SAT at 7pmET/4pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/zDPpYfQDf9
— UFC (@ufc) October 17, 2024
Hernandez enters this match with a career record of 12 wins and two losses. Since joining the UFC in 2019, Hernandez has gone an impressive 6-2. He hasn’t lost a fight since Kevin Holland knocked him out at UFC on ESPN 8 back in 2020. "Fluffy" arrives with the momentum of winning his last five fights.
Pereira, on the other hand, is on an eight-fight winning streak. He enters this bout with an MMA record of 31 wins and 11 losses, along with two bouts being declared NC. Since returning to the middleweight division, Pereira has run through all three of his opponents in 66 seconds or less, with two of those three bouts ending via submission and one via TKO.
"Fluffy" is averaging 4.30 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He absorbs 3.46 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 45%. Known as a grappler, Hernandez averages 6.62 takedowns every 15 minutes and 3.0 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown defense of 63% and his takedown accuracy is 49%.
Pereira averages 5.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 3.70 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.53 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and his takedown defense is 94%.
There is no doubt in my mind that Hernandez is going to absorb some damage early on. Pereira, who is known for his explosiveness, athleticism, and unorthodox striking, is likely going to charge right at Hernandez from the opening bell.
Hernandez is relentless with his pressure as well but I think Pereira is going to be better than Hernandez in the first round. After that, I expect Pereira to gas out and Hernandez to take him down. Once he gets his opponent down, he’ll either maul them or do enough damage to set up a submission. My prediction is that Hernandez will submit Pereira in the later rounds.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kyler Phillips, $9,300 - vs. Rob Font
This weekend, bantamweights Kyler Phillips and Rob Font are scheduled for a three-round bout in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 99. Font enters Saturday's card on a two-fight losing skid while Phillips enters this bout riding a three-fight winning streak.
Phillips was last seen in action back in March at UFC 299 where he defeated Pedro Munhoz via unanimous decision. Since signing with the UFC back in 2020, Phillips has gone an impressive 6-1, losing only to Raulian Paiva. Phillips is now on a three-fight winning streak, having defeated Munhoz, Raoni Barcelos, and Marcelo Rojo. A win over Font would put Phillips in the top 10 in the bantamweight division.
Font is in dire need of victory this Saturday as he is on a two-fight losing streak. Not only that, but Font has gone 1-4 in his last five bouts. It should be noted that those four losses were delivered by elite competition like former featherweight champion Jose Aldo, former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, and former title challengers Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera.
Phillips averages 5.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 3.38 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61%. When it comes to his wrestling, Phillips averages 2.41 takedowns every 15 minutes, with his takedown accuracy being 46% and a takedown defense of 75%.
Font enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-8 and he is 10-7 in the UFC. He averages 5.53 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Font absorbs 3.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is decent as best, averaging 0.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. Font has a takedown accuracy of 35% and his takedown defense is 46%.
Font is known for having some of the best boxing hands and he’ll be more than willing to stand and trade with Phillips as he puts the pressure, but his recent losses make you question if his best days are behind him.
Losing four out of his last five, having a suspect chin, and being 37 years old, I don't see Font winning this fight. Phillips' unorthodox striking, movement, and athleticism will be too much for Font. I'll be picking the favorite, Phillips, despite his suspect gas tank.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Johnson, $8,800 - vs. Sumudaerji
Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji are scheduled to face off in a flyweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 99 on Saturday. Johnson is coming off the biggest win of his career where he earned a spectacular third-round knockout over Joshua Van, while Sumudaerji is looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses.
Johnson’s knockout win over Van marked his third straight triumph within six months, which saw him rebound from a three-fight slump. His incredible knockout win over Van in his last outing showed that Johnson carries knockout power on the feet, but since joining the UFC in 2022, the majority of his fights have gone the distance. Johnson enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-6 and he is 5-4 in the UFC.
Since entering the UFC in 2018, Sumudaerji has gone 3-3 with all three losses coming via submission. He is on a two-fight losing streak, and this will be his first fight in 10 months. The best chance that Sumudaerji has is to keep this fight standing up, as it's evident that his weakness is his ground game.
Johnson averages 4.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.45 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 58%. When it comes to his wrestling, Johnson has a takedown accuracy of 20% and a takedown defense of 66%. He is averaging 0.38 takedowns every 15 minutes.
Sumudaerji averages 4.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. His striking defense is 61% and he's absorbing 2.73 strikes per minute. Sumudaerji is averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 66%.
While he hasn't made much use of his wrestling in the past, Johnson will likely try to ground Sumudaerji, as it seems that Sumudaerji can't get back up once he gets taken down. Sumudaerji hasn’t seen a win in almost four years, while Johnson has improved immensely in his last three outings, earning him three straight victories. My prediction is that Johnson will submit Sumudaerji in the third round.
