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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo on 10/15/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, NV this Saturday to complete a three-event run before moving places--for good this time. With the next numbered event (UFC 280) taking place on Oct. 22 next week in Abu Dhabi, UAE, Dana decided to give one last use to the complex before flying abroad.
This event was originally (announced in August) as going to pit Jared Cannonier and Sean Strickland but that fight ultimately was scratched because of an injury giving way to the actual Araujo vs. Grasso we have coming. These two are also part of a re-scheduled and postponed fight from August, but alas. Enjoy this one at its usual time before you gotta set an early alarm next weekend as part of the Arab Emirates festivities!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo on 10/15/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Viviane Araujo, $7200 - vs. Alexa Grasso
This might not be the first fight you think of when you think about the main event of the evening, but it's still an interesting one featuring two title challengers that have yet to fight for the gold once in their careers. Grasso is still young and coming off three victories, while Araujo is squeezing the last drops of fighting inside of her now on the wrong side of 35 but has a 3-1 record since the start of 2020.
Grasso has defeated the three strongest opponents she's ever faced (outside of Tatiana Suarez, though that happened in 2018) in a row spanning from Aug. 2020 to last March. She even submitted her most recent foe Joanne Wood inside the first round of their bout a little over six months ago. Grasso's volume-striking is nothing to like as he's only landed more than 88 SS once in her career. Same for the takedowns, never topping two attempted nor landed.
Araujo brings a higher floor and a similar ceiling to the table. She's got a much higher volume of strikes on a per-minute basis nearly doubling Grasso's rate and landing the same (if not more) on a percentage basis than the younger of the two. That's not to mention the marvelous grappling and takedown numbers of Araujo, who has gone 8-of-13 in TD over her last four fights.
Grasso has a couple of 100+ DKFP victories in the past three years while Araujo has topped at 93 and has spent more than three years without finishing an opponent early. That said, and assuming this goes the distance, Araujo should be the better fantasy play here.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jonathan Martinez, $8800 - vs. Cub Swanson
Looks like Dana was very interested in scheduling an event packed full of young-vs-old fights, doesn't it? Swanson is about to turn 40 years old while Martinez is still a few months away from even reaching his thirtieth birthday. That said, both men have already fought double-digit fights in their UFC careers although, obviously, Swanson comes with double the experience inside an Octagon compared to Martinez.
Swanson decided at the end of 2020 that enough was enough and that it was time to come to his early career days--those of knocking out foes on a per-fight basis. So he's won two fights via KO while losing another in that span. The problem: one of those victories came against 52th-percentile-in-DKFP Daniel Pineda, which is definitely something not to call home proud about.
Martinez, while much more tamed than Swanson recently, has gone 1-1 in terms of fights ending with a KO but otherwise has a very positive 5-2 record in favor since the start of 2020. He'll enter the Octagon next Saturday boasting a three-fight winning streak in which he's attempted at least 144 SSA every fight while landing 49%, 51%, and 57% of his attempts in those three.
None of these two has much (if any at all) grappling/takedown upside, so it will be all about finishing the fight with a KO or racking up points over a full 15-minute bout. I'm betting on either the latter or a KO in favor of Martinez happening here. Swanson is the clear boom/bust play with Martinez perhaps having a slightly lower ceiling but a much safer floor at around 70 DKFP if this goes the full three rounds.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Royval, $7000 - vs. Askar Askarov
While these two are relatively new to the UFC promo, both of them are also quite successful. Royval has had it rougher than his opponent this weekend sporting a 4-2 record since debuting a little over two years ago, but the truth is that those two losses came against two fighters ranked inside the 88th and 92th percentile in DKFP.
Askarov started drawing his debut against Brandon Moreno (88th) and then proceeded to win thre straight bouts before dropping his last (and lone) one against Kai Kara-France last March. That was a hard matchup, of course, but that was also a rather disappointing outcome for Askarov as he could only land 27-of-60 SSA while finishing with an active-but-paltry 2-of-14 takedowns.
Other than that, the difference in fighting styles between these two men is rather clear. Royval is going to give you wild striking without landing many of those blows while Askarov is the one to roster if you love grappling and takedown numbers.
Even though Askarov went for a putrid 2-of-14 takedowns landed in his last fight and he is usually not a perfect TD-lander his volume on that front easily makes up for the low rates. So much so that he's gone for 11, 7, 15, 6, and lastly 14 TDs in his five UFC fights landing 13 of those.
The key here, though, is the fact that Royval, while attempting just two takedowns over six total fights, has already defeated three foes via submission. Royval is a boom/bust play compared to Askarov, but at the end of the day the latter's upside and floor are ground-level low and Royval is a better option even with his limited fight-finishing prowess.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dusko Todorovic, $8700 - vs. Jordan Wright
Not the flashiest of fights, this one. At least on paper, of course. Todorovic and Wright are a combined 4-6 in the UFC with only two wins each in five fights to reach their respective 40% win rates so far in the promo. Both men will also enter Saturday's fight having lost (at least one of) their last fights.
Now, before digging deeper, you have to know something: this is definitely not going the distance. Wright and Todorovic, in 10 combined fights to date, have fought for a total of 2,962 seconds or, easier to digest, 49 minutes. That is, in UFC terms, fewer than 10 full rounds over 10 fights. Yes, you are right: one round per fight, which means early finishes in bunches.
Wright has KO'd two foes, eaten two KOs himself, and lastly lost via submission last April. Todorovic has done the same, only losing one via decision instead of submission. There is no real analysis to make here because this is a flier going against a flier. As simple as that, as stupidly simplistic as it sounds.
Todorovic has at least chased some takedowns over his UFC career, and Wright has a loss via submission, so that might be the only (little) edge to get here. So give me Todorovic if I was forced to pick and put one of these two in my lineup.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alonzo Menifield, $8900 - vs. Misha Cirkunov
If you read the breakdown above this one (Todorovic vs. Wright), then explaining this fight shouldn't take a lot of explaining from my side nor understanding from yours. Here we have, again, another couple of finish-or-get-finished guys going against each other this weekend.
Cirkunov: 12 fights, one decision (loss). Menifield: eight fights, three decisions (1-2). Even on a per-minute basis, none of these two attempts even 10 SSA per 60 seconds on average since the start of 2021. That's also a red flag, but it also showcases how the two put it all on raw power more than anything else.
This might come down to Menifield being the more active and younger fighter, and also the one going the distance more often, more recently. The 5-of-17 in takedowns from Cirkunov in Oct. 2021 was a true outlier in his whole career, as he's only gone for more than four takedowns once before, in 2016!
Menifield has won via decision, submission, and knockout one each in his past four fights only losing one decision. That loss stunk a bit (27 DKFP) but the other three saw him reach 81.5, 96.5, and 109.5 FP. Give me Menifield.
