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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales on 05/17/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
This weekend returns to the familiar UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. I'm going to be honest, there is only one fight that has some star power in it, and that is the five-round main event between former title challenger Gilbert Burns and surging, undefeated Michael Morales. Outside of the main event, UFC Vegas 106 has good potential for violence, and there's no doubt in my mind that there will be some exciting fights this Saturday. The co-main event features a middleweight bout between veteran Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato.
Featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa are set to open up the UFC Vegas 106 main card before middleweights Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev clash on the main card. Also on the main card, we have a lightweight showdown between UFC prospect Mairon Santos and explosive Sodiq Yusuff. The “Prelims” undercard is headlined by Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales on 5/17/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gilbert Burns, $6.5K - vs. Michael Morales
Former welterweight title challenger Burns is scheduled to face off against undefeated Michael Morales in the main event of UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday. Originally scheduled for UFC 315, Burns and Morales' fight was moved to become the main event at the UFC Vegas 106 card. Morales will look to remain undefeated, and Burns looks to get back in the win column after losing three in a row.
The Octagon is BACK in Vegas 🔥#UFCVegas106 fight week is in full swing! pic.twitter.com/EI9BaXISfh
— UFC (@ufc) May 15, 2025
Burns has struggled lately with three straight losses, although those three losses came against the best welterweights in the world. In those fights, he dropped decisions to Sean Brady and former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad and was finished by new champion Jack Della Maddalena. Prior to those three losses, Burns won back-to-back fights by finishing Neil Magny via arm triangle choke and by beating Jorge Masvidal via unanimous decision. With a 22-8 record, Burns has defeated some of the greatest welterweights and boasts one of the division’s most formidable grappling resumes.
Morales faces the biggest test of his career this weekend against Burns in the headline bout of UFC Vegas 106. Most recently, at UFC Vegas 96, Morales finished veteran welterweight Magny with a first-round knockout that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Before that, he defeated Jake Matthews via unanimous decision. Known as a striker with devastating knockout power, Morales has 12 knockouts/TKO wins on his record. Morales will have a massive eight-inch reach advantage in this fight.
Burns comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-8 and 15-8 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Burns absorbs 3.57 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Burns is averaging 2.10 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown defense of 53%.
Morales comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-0 and 5-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Morales is absorbing 3.42 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. Regarding his grappling, Morales is averaging 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes. Morales has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 92%.
Burns is the biggest underdog on this card, most likely because he looked really off against Brady. The 26-year-old Morales has youth, knockout power, and a massive eight-inch reach advantage in this fight. That being said, Burns is a massive step up in competition. Burns is known for his grappling, but over the years, he has developed some solid standup skills. He's in dire need of victory, and I think his experience will be a bit too much for Morales. My prediction is that Burns will win by a unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rodolfo Bellato, $9.4K - vs. Paul Craig
On Saturday, veteran Craig is scheduled to take on Bellato in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 106. Craig is in dire need of a victory, and he's likely fighting for his job while Bellato looks for his second UFC win.
Bellato is a promising light heavyweight prospect with a strong finishing record. Out of his 12 wins, 11 were finishes, seven wins via TKO/knockout, and four by submission. Bellato was last seen in action in February at UFC 312, where he fought Jimmy Crute to a majority draw. Prior to that, he secured a first-round TKO victory over Ihor Potieria in December 2023 and earned his UFC contract with a first-round TKO win against Murtaza Talha on Dana White's Contender Series in October 2023.
Craig heads into Saturday's UFC Vegas 106 co-main event with a UFC record of 9-9-1. He was last seen in action back in November at UFC 309, where he lost to Bo Nickal via unanimous decision. That was his third consecutive win. Since dropping down to middleweight, Craig has gone 1-4. Prior to his bout with Nickal, Craig was knocked out by Caio Borralho in May 2024 at UFC 301 and suffered a first-round submission loss to Brendan Allen in November 2023 at UFC Vegas 82. This is his first fight at light heavyweight since his bout with Johnny Walker.
Bellato enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-2-1 and 1-0-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.28 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Bellato absorbs 6.31 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.06 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 30% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Craig enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-9-1 and he is 9-9-1 in the UFC. He averages 2.52 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Craig absorbs 3.03 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 43%. In regards to his grappling, Craig is averaging 1.52 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 20%, and his takedown defense is 37%.
Craig has always been known as a fighter who can pull out a submission win after taking a beating on the feet, but I don't see him doing it this time. He's been struggling recently, and he hasn't done it in quite some time. Last time he won was against Andre Muniz, but that was two years ago. Craig's only path to victory is if he gets this fight to the ground and finishes Bellato via submission, and I don't think he'll be able to do that to Bellato. Bellato is known as a finisher, and I think he will finish Craig via a first-round or second-round knockout.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nursulton Ruziboev, $9.0K - vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Ruziboev and Stoltzfus are scheduled for a middleweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday. Both Ruziboev and Stoltzfus look to win back-to-back fights.
After suffering his first UFC loss a year ago to Joaquin Buckley, Ruziboev started this year strong. In his last bout back in February at UFC Seattle, Ruziboev got back in the win column by finishing Eric McConico via second-round TKO. Since signing with the promotion back in 2023, Ruziboev has gone 3-1, with three TKO/knockout victories. Ruziboev is one of the most experienced fighters on the card with 35 career wins. He's a powerful striker who tends to start fast, although when extended later into fights, he tends to struggle.
Since joining the promotion, Stoltzfus has had mixed results. Stoltzfus was last seen in action in November at UFC Edmonton, where he got back in the win column by knocking out Marc-Andre Barriault in the first round to earn a Performance of the Night bonus. He also earned a Performance of the Night bonus back in December 2023 when he submitted Punahele Soriano. Prior to his fight with Barriault, Stoltzfus suffered a knockout loss to Brunno Ferreira. He has three wins and five losses in his UFC career thus far.
Ruziboev enters this fight with an MMA record of 35-9-2. He is averaging 2.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Ruziboev absorbs 3.78 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling has been decent at best, averaging 0.60 takedowns every 15 minutes. Ruziboev has a takedown accuracy of 100% but has a takedown defense of 0%.
Stoltzfus enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-6 and 3-5 in the UFC. He averages 3.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Stoltzfus absorbs 3.29 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.31 takedowns every 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 46%.
Ruziboev is a huge favorite in this fight and rightfully so. He starts aggressively and usually finishes his opponents inside the first or second round. Although Ruziboev does get tired in the later rounds, I don't think Stoltzfus will be able to withstand the onslaught Ruziboev is going to bring early on, and I don't think Stoltzfus will be able to outwrestle him. I'm going with the favorite on this one. My prediction is that Ruziboev will knock Stoltzfus out in the second round.
