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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal on 03/03/22. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
The third numbered event of the year is already here, and it's going to be quite a special one. That's because the last time Dana scheduled a fireworks event without a title fight baked into it happened more than eight months ago (UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3), and prior to that, it had happened just on one other occasion since Jan. 2020. So yeah, here's hoping this is just a sucky event sandwiched between at least seven (before it) and seven (after it) events with titles on the line.
That said, the truth is that this even was expected to host Featherweight champ Alex Volkanovski facing Max Holloway, only for the fight to get canned in January with Holloway injured. A second title fight could have also happened (Bantamweight) but that one is now scheduled for UFC 273 also, so yeah, at least that night will be memorable, I guess. We'll have to make do with a Cobly vs. Masvidal this Saturday, which is far from horrid but definitely not at the top of your must-watch stuff. So just enjoy the show, and wait for the main dish come UFC 273.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal on 03/03/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Colby Covington, $9400 - vs. Jorge Masvidal
Let's address the elephant in the room first. Masvidal is good, not great. Covington is a chocker. Alright, we can start now. Colby and Masvidal have fought for titles four times in the past two years and change starting in Dec. 2019. If you go back to Jun. 2018, it'd be five title fights including the one in which Colby got the belt beating Rafael dos Anjos. Sadly, we don't care about that anymore because Kamaru Usman arrived on the scene, destroyed both Masvidal and Covington twice each, and settled the debate about who's at the top of the division and who's cooked.
Covington has dropped two of his past three bouts, though obviously two of those were against Usman. The other one ended in a fifth-round KO victory facing Tyron Woodley. Masvidal, on the other hand, had that super-run in 2019 in which he demolished Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz in the span of eight months... only to drop two in a row to Usman in pretty much the same time. Masvidal was a fruit of a monster rash of hype, but not much more. Covington is the better fighter overall, throws massive amounts of strikes, and chases takedowns like a madman too while pulling them off easily (not against Usman, of course). It's Covington by a mile here... yet this smells like your classic Masvidal coming out of nowhere with a one-minute KO to screw us all.
DraftKings MMA Catchweight (160 lb) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Renato Moicano vs. Rafael dos Anjos
See, Rafa fought three times before the turning of the decade. The 2000s decade, I mean. He's a bona fide walking UFC legend, full stop. He's also entering his age-37 year and has dropped three of his past five, not precisely against the top of the order with the exception of Colby Covington back in 2018. Dos Anjos is coming off a victory, though, after dropping Paul Felder on a full five-round decision in which Rafael looked actually damn nice with 92-of-162 SSL and a career-high 22 TDA landing six of them (his most since 2015).
Fiziev was expected to be on the other corner, only for him to drop out of the card after testing positive for COVID, getting replaced by Renato Moicano on a freaking five-day notice. Even with 12 fights already under his belt, Moicano feels like a rookie compared to Dos Anjos, just imagine! Moicano has won two in a row, and his last four victories came via submission. The problem: he's been dropped by three consecutive KOs in his last three defeats too, none of them taking his opponents more than 5:44 minutes to inflict that damage. Moicano fought for the last time less than a month ago and hasn't lost since Dec. 2020 (against Rafael Fiziev, by the way). The striking volume is putrid but the takedowns are sky-high with a phenomenal submission prowess. I have to side with Renato because of the high takedown-boosted floor and the very real chances of an early Sub victory while not facing an opponent in Dos Anjos that projects as a threat to KO Moicano.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bryce Mitchell, $8300 - vs. Edson Barboza
Another young vs veteran bout in the middle of the card, and I'd say an even more unbalanced one by the looks of recent developments. Barboza, as good as his first seven years in the UFC were, never got a chance at fighting for the gold and his chances went all the way down to the ground at the end of 2017 when he entered his current 3-6 stint. That's been fixed a bit of late with a 2-2 even record since the start of 2020, but Barboza is coming off a legit rocking by Giga Chikadze as the Brazilian got KO'd in 11:16 last August not even landing 35 SS of the 95 he attempted. Ugh.
Mitchell, on the other hand, has yet to fight at 27 years of age while he has not met defeat in the UFC. Mitchell is 4-0 since debuting in March 2019, though it is also true that he's been out of the Octagon for the past 17 months. Rust, anyone? Could be the case, but I'd say the decline of Barboza's game during the past few years will weigh heavier than any sort of hiatus in the career of an under-30 fighter any day. The only thing giving me pause when it comes to Mitchell is his ridiculously bad/low-volume striking numbers. He's topped at 69 SSA landing 46 of those and although he lands square on his foes at a 73% rate, the volume just renders that accuracy useless. That said, the takedowns are sublime (11-of-20 career-wise, 7-of-13 his last time out) so that's enough for me to go with Mitch.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $9100 - vs. Alex Oliveira
It's actually unbelievable that Holland has been part of eight UFC events in the past two years, and that he's fought a total of 13 times in the UFC since debuting in August of 2018. Not a lot of fighters can bear that massive amount of fights in such a short span, but it's not that Holland's been at the top of the world perennially, either. In fact, he's had it rough of late with a 0-2-1 record in his past three fights, all taking place in 2021. The problem for Holland is that while he was a super-finisher in his "early" days (five wins via either KO or Sub before the end of 2020) he's just not that fighter any more getting to two straight decisions and the No Contest result his last time out.
Oliveira, who also had a phenomenal run from 2015 to the end of 2018, is now a 2-5 fighter in the past three calendar years. Even focusing on fights starting in 2020, he'd be on a negative 2-3 record having dropped all last three bouts including two via first-round submission. Good for Oliveira, Holland doesn't project to be chasing takedowns like a madman, rather relying on his high-accuracy/low-volume striking more often than not. Oliveira got some submission victories early in his career, yes, but he's not actively chasing the mat these days while his striking volume is also putrid at best. I hate this fight because there is just no value nor potential upside to be found in these two. Fade them if you can, bank on the better-of-the-worst Holland otherwise.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sergey Spivak, $8700 - vs. Greg Hardy
Rough fight for an event-opening one. Can't sugarcoat that fact. Both Spivak and Hardy have had their moments here and there, but for the most part of their respective UFC tenures, they have been a little bit more bad than good if you ask me. That's why they are 4-3 Spivak, and 4-4-1 Hardy so far as pros doing it for Dana. Pretty mediocre records, those are. Hardy has an even 2-2 in the past couple of calendar years, yes, but he's been rocked two times in a row in his past two fights, including a first-round KO-against inflicted by Tai Tuivasa last July. Spivak is also coming off a 2:30-minute KO against Tom Aspinall last September, when he finished his fight without a single SS landed (he attempted 11...). Spivak is 3-1 in his past four though, and that loss stopped a nice three-win run.
The only positive on these two, seriously, is the fact that this fight surely looks like an all-or-nothing affair of sorts to get people pumped up before the good bouts arrive later in the event. In other words, expect a KO from one of the two sides. But for fantasy purposes, this fight is scary as hell and 100% a true boom/bust type of thing. I guess I'd side with Spivak basically because he's gone for a little big higher volume than Hardy and most of all because of his takedown prowess (he even won one fight in 2019 via submission). At the end of the day, Spivak is 12-of-21 in takedowns career-wise, so you gotta bet on a re-do on that front and run with it.
