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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! This is John Brubaker dropping some of my favorite plays for today's slate. Thursdays are typically weird slates, and we have a weird lock today with a five-game slate on FanDuel, but a seven-game slate on DraftKings. After reviewing the slate, we're super short on pitching, with just a few studs taking the balls for their respective clubs.
FanDuel and DraftKings are giving us a between a five and seven-game slate this evening. DraftKings has added the 6:05 and 6:10 pm (EST) games, while FanDuel has opted not to put those on the slate. I'll be keen on certain players from those two early games, so I won't hesitate to put them in this article. Nevertheless, it will be imperative to keep an eye on lineups throughout the day to make sure your favorite bats are in the lineup.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings at 6:05 pm and FanDuel at 7:05 pm on 6/30/2022. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options, and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all of that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Nola, PHI vs ATL ($10,000 DK)
I'll start tonight's slate off with Aaron Nola. We're pretty limited on pitching tonight, with only two real "studs" at the top. Obviously, I would opt for Joe Musgrove on FanDuel, considering Nola isn't on the FanDuel slate. With that said though, Aaron Nola has the highest rating on the slate, at 45.26. I project Nola for a 2.82 xFIP, 29.17% strikeout rate, and just a 2.91% walk rate. While the cause for concern is the potential for hard contact, I'll hope Nola is able to repeat his May 26 performance, where he tossed 8.1 innings of one-run ball against the Braves, just before they went on their hot streak.
Graham Ashcraft, CIN at CHC ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD)
Graham Ashcraft, while not a "value" pitcher necessarily, is the pitcher I'll be looking at in the mid-tier price range on DraftKings today. After two rough starts against the Cardinals and Brewers, Ashcraft tossed himself a gem against the Giants on Sunday, tossing eight innings while allowing two runs and striking out eight. I project Ashcraft to a 3.69 xFIP today. While I project him just a 16.5% strikeout rate and a 31.08% hard contact rate, Ashcraft should keep the ball on the ground as I project him a 54.91% ground ball rate. I'm not asking for much from him, but I'll be willing to take the chance on him in a solid matchup against the Cubs.
Also consider: Joe Musgrove, Adrian Martinez
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Willy Adames - SS, MIL vs. JT Brubaker ($5,000 DK, $3,500 FD)
As far as hitters go, I'll start the slate off with Willy Adames against my namesake, Jonathan (JT) Brubaker. Adames has had a shaky start of the year, hitting just .212, albeit with 15 home runs. He matches up well with Brubaker, though, projecting a 31.93% hard contact rate as well as a projected .834 wOBA + ISO against Brubaker's pitch types. He's had six plate appearances against Brubaker, going 2-5 with a home run and a walk. We're thin at shortstop tonight, and Adames is my top pick with a rating of 43.31.
Yandy Diaz - 3B, TB vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($3,400 DK, $2,700 FD)
I'll be looking at Yandy Diaz as a member of a Rays stack, who should be leading off for Tampa Bay this evening against Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. While Yandy hasn't had much success against the lefty, going 0-6 with three strikeouts against him, I project him well tonight. I project him to have just a 9.54% strikeout rate tonight, with a 52.42% hard contact rate and a .775 projected wOBA + ISO against Kikuchi's pitch types. Diaz has knocked five hits in his last three games, so I'll back him to keep the hot streak going against a struggling Kikuchi today.
J.J. Matijevic - 1B, HOU vs. Luis Severino ($2,000 DK)
Of course, this will depend on whether Matijevic can crack the starting nine tonight for the Astros, but if he does, he's my favorite value play on the slate. While it's a bit difficult to project Matijevic due to the small sample size, it's safe to say given the data he projects extremely well tonight. His projected 39.93% strikeout rate is hard to look past, he projects a 58.26% hard contact rate and a .833 projected wOBA + ISO against Severino's pitch types. He'll be used as a one-off for me, but a good one at that should he be in the lineup tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Judge - OF, NYY vs. Luis Garcia ($6,000 DK)
Taking the field on the other side for the Yankees is MVP-favorite Aaron Judge. I don't have to be the one to tell you that Judge is tearing it up this season, currently hitting .290 after hitting his 29th home run of the campaign yesterday. While Judge projects well against just about anyone, he does see Luis Garcia's pitch types well, with a projected .799 wOBA + ISO as well as a 49.66% projected hard contact rate. Garcia has gotten the better of him in their only two matchups, with Judge striking out in each of the two at-bats. Nevertheless, it's hard to fade Judge, especially on a smaller slate.
George Springer - OF, TOR vs. Drew Rasmussen ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD)
We're getting somewhat of a discount on Springer, who comes into this one hitting .258 with 15 homers and a .831 OPS on the season. He projects well against Rays' starter Drew Rasmussen, with a projected 31.27% hard contact rate and a .765 projected wOBA + ISO against his pitch types. While Springer is just 1-7 with a walk against Rasmussen, I can see him bouncing back today and continuing his hot streak.
Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($4,500 DK, $2,900 FD)
Back to the Rays against Kikuchi, with outfielder Randy Arozarena. Arozarena is hitting just .256 with seven home runs on the season. However, he projects well against the lefty Kikuchi tonight. He grades out to a 43.66 rating on tonight's slate, ranking fifth among outfielders. He also projects a 41.05% hard contact rate and a projected .811 wOBA + ISO against Kikuchi's pitch types. Arozarena is 2-6 with a solo home run against the lefty, so let's hope he continues the trend tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Yusei Kikuchi
While the Rays have been struggling offensively this season, they project as the best stack on the slate with a 58.09 rating. They struggle more against righties than lefties, as they have a respectable .711 OPS and 109 wRC+ against southpaws. Kikuchi has been brutal all season, particularly of late, so it should be no surprise that the Rays are my top offense on the board tonight, and likely the top offense for most of the field as well.
Favorite Plays: Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez
Milwaukee Brewers vs. JT Brubaker
The Brewers follow closely behind Tampa Bay, with a stack rating of 54.25. The Brewers have hit right-handed pitching well this season, with a .733 OPS and 104 wRC+. While Brubaker has pitched well of late, he did allow four runs (two earned) against the Brewers back on April 19. Should the Brewers get to Brubaker early, they should continue to hit through the game against a Pirates bullpen that may be spent after a long series with the Nationals which concluded yesterday.
Favorite Plays: Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Tyrone Taylor, Christian Yelich
Also Consider: New York Yankees (DK), Toronto Blue Jays
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