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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on May 12th, 2019. Austyn Varney's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Welcome to Sunday baseball! The MLB has given us a full 15-game slate that will be broken down into two DFS slates. The story of the day is of course the two NBA game 7's, but there's nothing better than filling those four or five dead hours throughout the day with some baseball.
The main slate brings us two stud arms, and a whole lot else. There are definitely some options, but it's going to take some digging around. The bats are interesting and we have a game in Coors Field later in the day. We also have two starting pitchers making their debut. Let's dive right into this Sunday slate full of intrigue.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 5/12/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard, NYM (vs. MIA) - $10,400
Starting pitcher is an interesting spot on this slate. We have a few talented arms to pay up for, but neither have been consistent this year and there isn’t a clear mid-range step down option. With that said, the difference in talent from the rest of the field sets these two pitchers apart. We’ll start with Noah Syndergaard, who’s taking the mound against the measly Marlins. They rank dead last against right-handers with a .264 wOBA and woeful 27% strikeout rate. Syndergaard has been rocky to say the least, but he’s clearly been unlucky. His .350 BABIP will lower and the 15% HR/FB rate is up from 8% last season. Syndergaard is going to settle down and this makes for a great game to start. With a total of just 6.5 runs and the Mets being -170 favorites, Syndergaard is the top option in all formats.
Blake Snell, TB (vs. NYY) - $10,700
You can’t deny the upside Blake Snell has every time he takes the mound. If you make me choose a pitcher for the future, I’ll take Snell over Thor every day. He just has a bit of a tougher matchup and put up a historic 88% LOB rate last year that is impossible to maintain. It has already lowered to where it should be and it’s part of the reason he’s struggled in some games. He still has some of the best “stuff” from the left side in baseball and can throw a CGSO against anyone. The Yankees are a middle of the road team against lefties (20th in wOBA) and are missing all of their big bats. Snell isn’t as safe as Syndergaard with the matchup vs the Marlins, but he has as much upside and won’t be as highly owned.
Dakota Hudson, STL (vs. PIT) - $6,400
If you want to get crazy, there are a couple names down here to watch. We’re going to look at Dakota Hudson against the Pirates, but Cole Irwin facing the Royals in Kauffman Stadium could get away with a quality start at a similar price. As for Hudson, he’s one of the Cardinals top prospects and has drawn huge praise from Wainwright. On the season, he’s been mashed by righties to the tune of a .531 wOBA. If we dig in, however, a .438 BABIP and 8.8 BB/9 suggests a bit of bad luck. He faces a Pirates team that ranks 20th in the league against righties and doesn’t offer much punch past the cleanup spot. Hudson should be able to control the damage and get the win along with a quality start. All for way too cheap.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Yadier Molina, STL (vs. PIT) - $4,200
Catcher isn’t all that pretty on this slate. We have a few options in strong spots, but they’re way more expensive than you’d like to pay for an average hitter in a good spot. Yadier Molina is fairly priced and the right-handed heavy Cardinals should do damage to Steven Brault. The southpaw allowed a .347 wOBA to righties in ‘18 and a pitiful 5.6 BB/9. Assuming Molina is in the lineup, he’ll be following Dejong, Ozuna, and Goldy, so the RBI opportunities should be there. He’s the best cash game catcher, but there are plenty of ways to go. Remember that it is Sunday and a lot of catchers take the day off, so there’s always the option of waiting until lineups come out and grabbing one of the cheap options that finds his way into a promising lineup. If you want to pay up, Molina and Garver are your top two bets.
1B - C.J. Cron, MIN (vs. DET) - $3,900
I know we like to think of C.J. Cron as a backup still, but he’s not. He hit 30 home runs in 2018 and is on track to get close to that same number this season. He’s holding a .402 wOBA against left-handers and is hitting the ball hard over 38% of the time. He’s hit 2nd and 6th over the last few days, and either is fine. One puts him in the heart of the order and one lets him drive them all in. Daniel Norris has maxed out at 5.0 innings this season and has been giving up three or four runs almost every start. The Twins are going to be one of the top offenses on the slate and Cron is way too cheap for his production. If you want to pay up at first, Goldschmidt is my favorite.
2B - Jonathan Villar, BAL (vs. LAA) - $4,100
With Altuve missing in what would be a great matchup, second base is a bit all over the place. If you’re looking for your best cash game option, Jonathan Villar is batting leadoff against Griffin Canning. Canning is a solid MLB prospect, but he may not be ready for the majors just yet. His peripherals showed a steep decline in AAA with a 5+ xFIP last season and we don’t know much about how he will handle the show. So far in 2019, Jonathan Villar has crushed righties with a .355 wOBA and 3 homers. Vegas thinks the Orioles score some runs, as the game is just about even opening up with a 9 total. Villar has stolen base upside and power, so there’s plenty of ways to get to the number you need. If the Orioles put up some runs, he will get 5 at-bats and has huge upside.
SS - Carlos Correa, HOU (vs. TEX) - $4,900
Adrian Sampson isn’t a pitcher that necessarily belongs in the majors. Over the course of the last three seasons, Sampson has managed to pitch 60 innings. In those innings, he’s allowed a .416 wOBA and 5.66 xFIP to right-handed hitters. All the while striking out 5-6 batters per nine innings. Carlos Correa may slightly prefer lefties, but a .351 wOBA over the last two years says enough. He’s in the heart of the order and relied upon even more with Altuve missing. The ‘Stros are implied to score over 5 runs and Correa should play his part in the mayhem.
3B - Marwin Gonzalez, MIN (vs. DET) - $3,100
Marwin Gonzalez fell straight out of the sky in 2018, going from one of the better switch-hitters in baseball to a .300 wOBA bat. It looks like he may have been a bit unlucky, as he’s now hitting the ball well against after being protected by this Twins lineup. It’s almost like the Astros lineup he used to hit second for. He fits in so well because of the low strikeout rate and high LD%. We’ve already touched on Daniel Norris, who’s weak against righties with power. Gonzalez is affordable and should be in any Twins stack of yours.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
George Springer, HOU (vs. TEX) - $5,700
Trout and Springer are essentially the same price today, which should drive the ownership down a ton on Springer. Especially with Mike Trout facing a lefty in Camden Yards. With that being said, George Springer is in a phenomenal matchup and has just as high of a floor and ceiling as Trout. I like Springer more as I think the team around him will put up a ton more runs and is a lot easier to stack. Josh Redick and Michael Brantley are two left-handed outfielders that mash righties and aren't nearly as expensive as Springer. This entire outfield is in play against a pitcher in Sampson who will have trouble getting to the fifth inning.
Bryce Harper, PHI (@KC) - $4,700
Harper has been priced way down from his usual tag and is now sitting next to guys like Brian Goodwin and Jay Bruce. Not terrible, but not at all where we're used to see Bryce Harper. His peripherals suggest he's the same hitter. He's hitting the ball hard and has still maintained a .375 combined wOBA. He's been swinging the bat better as of late and it seems like that grand slam a few games ago woke him up. We haven't touched on the Phillies yet, but they're even money with a 9.5 total facing Jake Junis. Junis has allowed a .350 wOBA to lefties over the past couple seasons and has an issue with the long ball (1.5 HR/9). The ballpark won't help any matters, but Harper can hit it out anywhere and I don't think he's very highly owned on this slate.
Steve Wilkerson, BAL (vs. LAA) - $3,200
I could suggest a much more appealing name here, but I'm trying to find at least one solid value play in the outfield. If you're going to play both of those elite pitchers, you're going to need to save salary somewhere. If you agree with Vegas and think Canning does struggle, you can get some more cheap exposure to this Orioles lineup. Wilkerson has taken the job away from Joey Rickard and is now the O's every day centerfielder. He's expected to hit 5th, so he should have ducks on the pond a few times throughout. He's already shown the power and has the speed to steal 20 bases.
