RADIO
The NBA spoils us as this is the second consecutive Saturday where we've been treated to a full slate of NBA games. We'll take what we can get. However, Saturdays can be tricky with coaches deciding to rest key players, so keep your eyes peeled on the news and injury updates. We have a handful of appealing matchups to target tonight, led by the Hawks-Nuggets affair in Denver and the Blazers-Bulls showdown in Portland. We also get to consider a Mavericks team without its superstar in Luka Doncic, though their matchup against the Warriors is less than ideal. Let's get to it.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 2/4/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Spencer Dinwiddie, vs. GSW (FD: $8,000, DK: $7,100) DraftKings preferred
Dinwiddie is nearly unplayable at his salary on FanDuel, but his DraftKings price is more than palatable, with Doncic set to miss time. Dinwiddie has demolished his salary-based expectations recently, exploding for 59, 57.5, and 36.25 DK points in three of his last four games. Those games were with production and usage-hog Doncic in the lineup, so now we get to see what he can do without one of the top players in the league in addition to big man Christian Wood. Dinwiddie holds a monstrous 35.5% usage rate and scores 1.27 FPTS/min with those two off the floor, so it will be a significant letdown if he can't exceed value at his tag tonight. The Warriors rank poorly against point guards as they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams this season.
Gabe Vincent, vs. MIL (FD: $3,900, DK: $3,500) If rostership isn't out of control
My K-Grade model hates the Heat and this matchup tonight as it's projected to be a slow, low-scoring game featuring two of the better defenses in the league. This isn't usually a spot to target in DFS contests. However, we need to take the value that the slate is handing us, and we should get a ton of minutes out of Gabe Vincent tonight with veteran Kyle Lowry already ruled out and Victor Oladipo listed as doubtful. Vincent's rates significantly increase with both guards off the floor (20% usage, 0.78 FPTS/min), and Vincent showed what he could do when given big minutes as recently as the middle of January when he went for 46.75 and 45.25 DK points in consecutive games. It's tough to find flaws in the Bucks' defense, but they're vulnerable against opposing guards as they've allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last 15 games.
Also consider: Tyler Herro, Anfernee Simons, Alec Burks, Isaiah Joe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Daishen Nix, Josh Christopher
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Hardaway Jr., vs. GSW (FD: $5,300, DK: $5,400)
One of the unsexiest mid-range options on the board, THJ is set to crush his salary on both sites tonight. His usage rate (24.4%) and FPTS/min rate (0.87) see massive spikes with Doncic and Wood off the floor this season, and he'll receive all the minutes he can handle in a marquee matchup against the Warriors tonight. His recent game logs don't inspire a ton of confidence, but there's very little chance for the rotational players to may any hay when Doncic is in the lineup, as he ranks among the NBA leaders in usage rate. Now that he's out, players like THJ will have to fill the void.
Jimmy Butler, vs. MIL (DK: $7,400) DraftKings only
As stated in the Vincent blurb, I don't enjoy targeting this matchup. We can always make exceptions, though. Butler holds a so-so 23.5% usage rate with both Lowry and Oladipo off the floor this year, but his production skyrockets as he averages 1.41 FPTS/min in the same split. Using that rate and multiplying by the 33 minutes he projects to see gives us a 46.5 DK point projection, which is around 6x value at his currently way-too-low salary on DraftKings. Don't think too hard about this one - he's a star player priced like Bojan Bogdanovic (No offense to Bojan, but you get my point here).
Also consider: Josh Green, Trendon Watford, Max Strus, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Hart, Caleb Martin, Isaiah Stewart
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, vs. ATL (FD: $11,700, DK: $11,400)
Jokic is averaging 25/11/10 this season - a triple-double - and it feels like that's not getting talked about enough. I understand "MVP voter fatigue," but come on, people. The two-time reigning MVP has put up back-to-back 70+ DK point games, going for 77.5 and 70.5 DK points against the Pelicans and Warriors, respectively. Yet his salary has somehow remained close to his season-low, so we should continue to get to the dynamic big man in our DFS lineups tonight. He's questionable to play with a lingering hamstring issue, but the Nuggets are playing the front half of a back-to-back set, and it's likely that if he's going to sit one of these games, it will be on Sunday against the Timberwolves. The Hawks allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to centers this season and the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing teams over their last 30 games.
Nikola Vucevic, vs. POR (FD: $8,200, DK: $9,000)
Also consider: Bam Adebayo, Deandre Ayton, Jalen Duren. Dwight Powell, Drew Eubanks, Isaiah Hartenstein
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