X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Corbin Burnes 2021 Year-in-Review

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Corbin Burnes had a Cy Young worthy season in 2021, delivering mightily for the fantasy baseball managers who drafted him. Jon Anderson breaks down his performance in-depth and looks forward to 2022.

One of the toughest decisions to make in 2021 drafts was what exactly to do with Corbin Burnes. We hadn't seen much of him at all in the Major Leagues before the 2020 season, and then we had less than 60 innings to go off of for Burnes from that 2020 season. While his performance in 2020 was nothing short of dominant, it was still very tough to take those numbers very seriously since they came from such a small sample of data.

The field, for the most, believed in Burnes' ability and his ADP finished right around the #50 mark, making him an SP1 or SP2 in most fantasy situations. That put a lot of pressure on Burnes from the fantasy landscape, but boy oh boy did he deliver.

In 2021, Burnes threw 167 innings. He struck out 234 batters (35.6%), walked 34 (5.2%), and finished the year with a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. At this time of this writing, the National League Cy Young Award winner has not been announced, but Burnes seems to be a lock for a top-two finish. Burnes was nothing short of completely dominant in 2021, so let's go ahead and take a deeper look at it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Three Indicators

I will always lead off my pitcher analysis posts by looking at my three favorite categories. Those are strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate. Let's first visualize K-BB% for all MLB pitchers that eclipsed 100 innings in 2021:

The best pitchers will be at the top-right of the plot, which would mean they had high strikeout rates along with low walk rates. You can see that only a couple of dots even compare with Burnes up there. Only ten pitchers here (again, 100 innings minimum) had strikeout rates above 30%, and only five of those pitchers came in with below-average walk rates. You can hover over each dot to see which pitcher it represents.

Add on to that Burnes' 49% ground-ball rate and you have a trio of numbers that we have rarely seen.

I looked back to 2015, searching for pitchers that met the following criteria

  • 100+ IP
  • 25% or greater K%
  • 7% or less BB%
  • 45% or greater GB%

I found just 50 pitchers (out of 824 pitchers that got to 100 IP) that met that criteria and Burnes led that group in strikeout rate, here's the full list:

I raised the stakes a bit here and checked this criterion

  • 100+ IP
  • 27% or greater K%
  • 6% or less BB%
  • 47% or greater GB%

This gave us just ten pitchers, and only seven unique pitchers (Clayton Kershaw has done it four times).

So yeah, it was a pretty good season for Burnes.

 

Home Run Performance

The best part about a 35% strikeout rate is that 65% of the time the hitter doesn't even have a chance to get on base. And the great thing about a 49% ground-ball rate is that the hitters that do manage to put a ball in play only have a chance to get one over the fence half the time.

Burnes took home run prevention to a ridiculous level as well, giving up seven homers to his 657 batters faced, which calculates out to one homer allowed every 94 batters faced. That is the fifth-best home run rate for pitchers throwing at least 100 innings since 2015 (Rich Hill 2016, Ranger Suarez 2021, Carlos Martinez 2018, and Chris Devenski 2016 were the only better rates - and none of them even reached 120 innings).

I'm not even really sure what to say next here, because there is simply no negative angle to even try on Burnes. He emphatically checks every single box you want to be checked in a starting pitcher. But let's forge onwards and check out his pitch arsenal anyways.

 

Pitch Arsenal

One thing we talked a lot about last offseason was the change Burnes made to his arsenal after the 2019 season. He stopped using his four-seam fastball, which had been crushed in 2019 and was the main culprit of his crazy high home run rate that season (in that season he gave up a homer on average every 13.8 batters faced, so compare that to what we just talked about and you see an almost unbelievable improvement). These changes stuck around in 2021 as he used the four-seamer just 1.5% of the time.

Here's the full breakdown from the last three seasons:

You can see there that he cut down on the sinker usage in 2021 in favor of the cutter (+21%) and curveball (+9%). Knowing what we know about the average results certain pitch types see, we would have expected the sinker to cutter transition to result in more whiffs, but fewer ground-balls. This wasn't the case with Burnes, however, as he maintained an elite ground-ball rate even with the lower sinker usage.

In this next plot I compare the ground-ball rates Burnes posted with each pitch type to the league average:

You see here that Burnes drastically outpaced the league average ground-ball rate with his slider, and significantly beat it with his cutter as well. Those two pitches plus the sinker made up 70% of his pitch arsenal, so that's how he generated the highest ground-ball rate. I'm a little bit skeptical that Burnes could do another season with those ground-ball rate son his slider and cutter, but I'm not saying it's impossible either. The guy's stuff is so unique it's hard to really expect regression to league averages.

Now let's look at the same thing with swinging-strike rates instead of ground-balls.

You can see that Burnes beat the league average in swinging-strike with all five of his pitches. He posted a 26.5% SwStr% with the slider, an absurd number, and had four pitches above 15%. He was the only pitcher in the league with at least 1,000 pitches thrown to post a 15% or better SwStr% on four different offerings. Only eight pitchers with significant pitch counts in 2021 even got to three (those names are Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Stroman, Luis Garcia, Triston McKenzie, Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, and Tanner Houck if you're curious).

Burnes truly stands all by himself in terms of depth and dominance of pitch arsenal. This gives him a lot to fall back on in any given outing where he doesn't have one of his pitches working well.

 

Durability

The only question I can even think of that might almost sort of kind of maybe be a reason to keep Burnes out of the top 10 picks next year would be the question of durability. Prior to 2021, Burnes' max innings pitched in a single season was 145, and that was way back in 2017. He threw just 116.2 innings in 2018, 71 in 2019, and then the 59 in 2020 before going for 173 in 2021 (postseason included).

If Burnes showed signs of breaking down at the end of the year, that could be a bad indicator for his ability to log a season of 180+ innings in the future. This doesn't seem to be the case, however. Here is his max velocity per start in 2021:

You can see he did finish the year with one start where he didn't have much velocity, but prior to that October 3rd start his velocity was right in line with what he had been doing all year, and he actually threw hardest in early September.

Here are the swinging-strike rates by start just for good measure:

Again, a bad start to finish his season, but perfectly awesome numbers in the few starts priors. Burnes was just as dominant in September as he was earlier in the year, which is a good sign here even though we're already being overly nitpicky.

 

Conclusion

Burnes posted a historically good season in 2021, and every single data point under the hood confirms it. He checks all of the boxes:

  1. High strikeout rate
  2. Low walk rate
  3. High ground-ball rate
  4. Nasty stuff
  5. Deep arsenal to fall back on

To me, the only pitcher that is logical to consider ahead of Burnes would be Jacob deGrom, but I don't think that's going to happen next year given deGrom's major health question marks. Burnes seems primed to be the first pitcher off the board next season, and I see no reason why that would be the wrong thing to do.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF