College Football Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 5) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick 'Em Contests

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick Em for Week 5 of the 2023 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

It was a strong week overall for the RotoBaller reader's group. A dozen entries had 50 points or more. Madcity Guru and MG Blaze both had a perfect week with 55 points. Kettyhawk23, HoneyBadgers, and kingrah23 all missed their one-point pick. Kahn and Brian681757 both missed their two-point pick.

50Centi is still leading the way with 189 points by just two points over kingrah23. Madcity Guru's perfect week moved him up to third place with 181 points. There is a little bit of separation at the top, but not in the rest of the top 10. Just eight points separate fourth from 14th place.

Conference play is almost universal now, which usually makes Pick Em a lot more interesting. We have eight conference games involved in Pick Em this week along with two matchups between ranked teams.

College Football Pick Em Overview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. There are less gimmes in conference season.

(1) Notre Dame over Duke

Sam Hartman lost to Duke in the regular season finale last year with Wake, but his career numbers against them are strong. Hartman has six touchdowns to just one interception and 748 passing yards in two games against the Blue Devils. Put this Notre Dame team around him instead of Wake, and magic could happen.

(2) Boise State over Memphis

Memphis has allowed 500 rushing yards over the last two games. Missouri isn't even that much of a running team! Ashton Jeanty should have a field day here and Taylen Green is more runner than passer. This is a problem for the Tigers.

(3) Syracuse over Clemson

People are still heavy on Clemson, and I do understand why. I just don't agree with them. Give me Garrett Shrader, especially in this offense, over Cade Klubnik right now. There is still time for Klubnik to change that, but this game in played in a couple of days. My mind won't be changed by then. Quarterbacks who can run often take some of the heat off of the run game and could soften up Clemson's stout run defense. Syracuse looks a little more put together right now.

(4) Troy over Georgia State

This week I have decided that if I'm going to try to steal points, I'm going to make it count. I'm putting these games in the middle. You just need to look at how Vegas views this game. Troy is even money to win outright. That's a far cry from public perception of a Troy win (6%). Troy has lost to two really good teams in Kansas State and James Madison (just put that one on my bowl wish list). Darren Grainger is going to be a problem for Troy, but I have faith in Kimani Vidal against the Georgia State defense.

(5) South Florida over Navy

All of the rage is about Byrum Brown in the win over Rice, and rightfully so. Lost in that is just how well South Florida's run defense played. They held the Owls to one rushing yard. One. That obviously won't translate to Navy, but it does mean that the Bulls will make them work for it. The dynamic play of Brown puts this over the top for me.

USF QB Byrum Brown doesn’t just lead the NCAA in QB rushing; but leads ALL AAC players in rushing. pic.twitter.com/hjJmS6bIq0

— SarasotaUSF (@SarasotaUSF) September 25, 2023

(6) Arkansas over Texas A&M

Conner Wiegman is out for the season, so the Aggies will turn to Max Johnson. We know exactly what Johnson is. He's a solid quarterback, but his arm will get him into trouble. Meanwhile, the Hogs should get Raheim Sanders back this week. The game is always at Jerry World, so it's not like the Hogs get the full 12th Man treatment. There's enough for me to like Arkansas, especially when the public is so heavy (86%) on the Aggies.

(7) LSU over Mississippi

This one has me nervous, especially if Ole Miss can finally get healthy. Both Tre Harris and Zakhari Franklin were on the field for the Rebels, along with Memphis transfer Caden Prieskorn at TE. I'm not sure how close to 100% they were, but this effort from Franklin suggests he is good to go.

something maybe overlooked saturday was @ZakhariFranklin’s effort on the INT. after missin him the first time he got BACK up and still made the tackle ? pic.twitter.com/4B6m3TVMja

— Not Ole Miss Problems (@OleMissNoProb) September 26, 2023

I'm not worried about his receiving skills. We know they're good. My issue here is that I don't think Ole Miss can stop Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers. The LSU defense has had issues as well and I don't fully trust Brian Kelly. I may move this down, but this is a tough week. For now, it stays here.

(8) Kentucky over Florida

?WEEK 5 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS?
?Link in Bio

SATURDAY MORNING SLATE

FLORIDA @ KENTUCKY pic.twitter.com/b53x5klv5s

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 26, 2023

The metrics love Kentucky and it's easy to see why. The Wildcats haven't allowed 100 rushing yards in a game yet. Kentucky has won three of the last five against the Gators since snapping their 31-game losing streak against Florida in 2018. The Florida win over Tennessee is far more impressive than anything Kentucky has done this year, but Graham Mertz is not the answer for the Gators. He's going to get exposed against this strong defense just like he did against Utah.

(9) James Madison over South Alabama

Both teams have victories over Power Five schools, but the Jags' nasty home loss to Central Michigan last week is inexcusable. South Florida and Arizona transfer Jordan McCloud is a better passer than Central Michigan's Jase Bauer and at least as good of a runner. The Dukes should be able to control this game with McCloud's strong play leading the offense and that lockdown defense.

(10) TCU over West Virginia

This is the only game that feels somewhat easy this week, even though the public is over 92% in four of the 10 games. TCU was breaking in 11 new starters in the opener against Colorado. That can take a toll on any team. Most of the offensive skill players are now in the NFL. TCU isn't Georgia or Alabama yet. They can't just reload (and sometimes even that doesn't go as planned).

WEST VIRGINIA @ TCU pic.twitter.com/lp5NbqSplf

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 26, 2023

This new incarnation of TCU is starting to come into their own. This chart overwhelmingly favors TCU and makes me a little more comfortable putting them at the top. If Garrett Greene is out again for the Mountaineers, this is a gimme.

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