RADIO
Week 1 is usually a crazy time in the college football landscape. Another thing that makes college football so unique is there is no preseason. You have to work out the kinks during the games in the first couple weeks of the season. We found out how much continuity on offense matters, especially in the age of college football free agency.
It was a rough week in the Pick Em landscape last week with an outright loss by Army to Louisiana-Monroe. The Black Knights were picked by 96% of users. I would best most didn't have them at 9 confidence points like I did though. That puts me in a hole to start the season. Havoc4Check and grove town tied for the group lead with 43 points this week. Momirka13 is second with 42 points. Madcity Guru and keepingthelittlehumansalive both have 40 points. Only six points separate first and 14th place, so points can be made up quickly at this time of the season.
We have some interesting games this week, highlighted by Alabama/Texas round 2. There are also a few tough ones because we didn't learn a whole lot about Oklahoma State, Arizona State, or Texas A&M in Week 1.
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College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. The first weeks are usually a bit easier, but there are some fun games this week!
(1) Arizona State over Oklahoma State
What looked like a marquee game when they scheduled this looks a bit blah right now. The main highlight is that is a Big 12 preview for 2024. I think the Sun Devils have more talent and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Nearly losing to Southern Utah raises some serious questions about their ability to close out games. The Sun Devils were up two touchdowns at the half and only hung on to win by three points.
Again, the public is heavy on a turned-over Oklahoma State team. They used three quarterbacks and three running backs in the 11-point win over Central Arkansas. The Cowboys aren't an obviously better team, especially on the road, to be picked at 89%. I'm trying to steal points here.
(2) North Carolina State over Notre Dame
The Pack have a good chance of winning this game at home and the public is 98% on the Irish. I'm going against the name to try and steal some points. Sam Hartman has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (seven) in three games against the Wolfpack with Wake Forest. He'll rack up the yardage, but he is 1-2 against the Pack and 0-2 in Raleigh. There is just enough to like about N.C. State to try and steal some points.
(3) Miami(FL) over Texas A&M
What did we learn about the Aggies in the rout of New Mexico? Not much. Evan Stewart is fast. Conner Weigman didn't make a mistake. They might use four running backs. How does that help us when picking this game? It doesn't.
That said, Miami looked more like a team than they have at any time in the last three years against a decent Redhawks team last week. That defense has talent, and the running game is still really good even without Jaylan Knighton. I like Miami's QB and backs better. A&M's receivers are far superior. Is that enough to win in South Miami? I have my doubts. The public going heavy on A&M has me liking Miami a bit more.
(4) Mississippi over Tulane
I like Tulane quite a bit, but Ole Miss has too much speed on both sides of the ball to lose this game. If South Alabama had any kind of a run game, they might have ridden the Wave to a victory in Week 1. Tulane has a puncher's chance at home, but you can bet that a lot of folks from Oxford will head down to N'awlins for some gumbo, jazz, and football. It won't feel a lot like a road game for the Rebs.
(5) Central Florida over Boise State
BREAKING🚨:
Smurf DNA found in Boise’s Blue Turf. The University is under investigation per sources: pic.twitter.com/3U5wWHP6c2
— Barstool UCF (@UCFStool) September 4, 2023
I know that Kent isn't quite where they were last year and that Michael Penix made Boise look terrible, but this UCF team is tough. I'm trying not to overreact to Week 1 too much by keeping this game in the middle. A trip to the Smurf Turf is never easy, but it's a lot easier on a Florida team in September than November. I just feel like UCF has too much on offense much the same way Washington did.
(6) Alabama over Texas
This is another situation where the public is heavy on one side of this. I get it. Alabama looked methodical in the dismantling of a better Middle Tennessee State team and Texas looked vanilla against Rice. I think that was on purpose. Texas didn't have any explosive plays and CJ Baxter got hurt after just five carries. Thankfully, he's not that hurt. He is expected to be available against the Tide.
It's funny how one strong game from Jalen Milroe switched this drastically. From what I can gather, if this game had been in Week 1, the public would have been closer to 60-40 on this game. Now it's at 83% Alabama. If this game were in Austin, I might feel differently. I don't see Texas going into Tuscaloosa and winning though.
(7) Iowa over Iowa State
Since football players only bet on games in Iowa and nowhere else, the Cyclones have been decimated by the NCAA. A few Hawkeye players have been sniped too, but it's not like Iowa State losing their starting quarterback. Cade McNamara looked strong in his Iowa debut and the defense was as tough as ever. The CyHawk is staying in Iowa City.
(8) Colorado over Nebraska
You think Coach Prime hasn't had a significant effect on Boulder yet? Does this change your mind?
Tickets to Nebraska @ Colorado are more expensive than Texas @ Alabama this week. #Colorado #CoachPrime #Alabama #Texas #Nebraska pic.twitter.com/5kGVY2Nckn
— Tim Buckley (@TimBuckleyWX) September 5, 2023
This was Nebraska's rival after the Big 12 formed and they no longer played Oklahoma every season. It was a short-lived rivalry, but it was heated nonetheless. Colorado's showing against TCU has most of the college football universe predicting that Colorado will smash their win total from 2022 by Week 2 of 2023. I'm with them. Nebraska's defense looked good, but they don't have the talent on offense to hang around like TCU did. Colorado has too much talent on offense to lose to a team that can't win close games.
(9) Oregon over Texas Tech
Tech blew a 17-0 lead in Laramie, losing in double overtime. Oregon scored their most points since they scored 97 points on Willamette in the opening game of the 1916 season. They also scored the most points by an FBS team since UNLV hung 80 on Idaho State in 2015. I understand that the quality of opponents is different, but the altitude doesn't have that much of an effect. The Tech defense allowed too many big plays and made too many mental mistakes. Unless something drastically changes in the week between games, the Red Raiders are in trouble.
(10) Utah over Baylor
Baylor only led once all game against Texas State, and that was at 3-0 in the first quarter. You can't blame this loss on Blake Shapen going down. The Bears were down two touchdowns before Shapen left the game. Utah beat Florida without starting quarterback Cameron Rising and starting TE Brant Kuithe. Even if Rising doesn't play, Utah is in good enough hands with Bryson Barnes and that front seven to win this.
Baylor averaged just under 3.4 yards per carry against TXST, down from 7.9 in last year's matchup. That's the Bears' worst home rushing average since losing to Oklahoma State in December of 2020 (2.3 YPC).
— Jackson Posey ✞ (@ByJacksonPosey) September 5, 2023
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