RADIO
The NFL is booting the college boys off of Thursday this week so we don't have any college games until Friday. There are three games on Friday with two of them as FBS vs. FBS matchups. We'll get the spread picks for those. We'll also go back over the first full week's results. Not only do I want to know how I'm doing, but I want you to know as well.
I am in the process of compiling a spreadsheet of all my picks and bets for the last 10 years. One look at that will tell you which teams I have a pretty good read on and which ones I struggle with. I'm going to hold myself accountable because I think it makes me better. I came out 33 betting points ahead last season despite going 391-402 against the spread.
I still won where it counts, but I'm aiming for 51% this year. I finished at 49.31% last year. I think that's an attainable goal. I started 1-1 in Week 0, so I guess that's holding serve. On to this week!
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CFB Betting Picks for Friday, September 6
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
BYU at SMU (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We didn't learn jack about BYU last week and SMU struggled against Nevada in Week 0. I feel like this is a touch high, especially if the Ponies are going to keep running two quarterbacks out there. Give me BYU.
Duke at Northwestern (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's something magical about that little palace by the lake. Give me Northwestern.
Not sure if anyone watched the Miami/Northwestern game on Saturday, but the temporary football field in Evanston was gorgeous, literally just steps from Lake Michigan. https://t.co/cMnQmHmuTJ pic.twitter.com/M7zmpwvutY
— Tim Adams (@timpadams1) September 4, 2024
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? This year's results will be tracked on this sheet. I have tabs for previous seasons on there and will update the all-time stats on the 2024 tab when I get caught up.
Winners against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let's see how the first full week went!
North Carolina (-1.5) at Minnesota: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I didn't dream the game would be this close, especially after it was announced that Darius Taylor wouldn't play. Minnesota once again has a full stable of running backs and the defense is solid. Carolina lost Max Johnson for the year, but he didn't play well when he was in there and Conner Harrell almost beat him out in camp.
Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ethan Vasko looked really good in this one. Once again, Jacksonville State has another QB controversy on its hands. It spent all of its first season in FBS in the same boat.
Temple at (16) Oklahoma (-42.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jackson Arnold threw four touchdown passes and didn't even pass for 150 yards. It was one of those games.
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This game did stay close. FAU shut out Sparty in the second half, but couldn't quite pull it out. UMass transfer Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams looked like the best player on the field. Maybe next time Aidan Chiles will think twice before running his trap...
Western Michigan at Wisconsin (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I bet the Broncos and the points in my parlays but forgot to change it here. Lesson learned. Wisconsin didn't look explosive in this game, but it didn't need to, either.
TCU (-9.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Stanford's defense still didn't come up with big plays and QB Ashton Daniels led the team in rushing. This is a game that TCU should have covered.
(14) Clemson vs. (1) Georgia (-12.5) at Atlanta: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Lmao last 3 Georgia P5 season openers
3 points scored a piece
‘21 Clemson, ‘22 Oregon and ‘24 Clemson pic.twitter.com/onaiLjN36n
— Thumser (@JeffreyThumser) September 1, 2024
Georgia won this game by a massive score without the top two running backs on the depth chart. That's who Carson Beck is. He's the limousine driver that no one notices until you need him to get you out of a sticky situation.
Clemson hung around for a while, but it was apparent early on that Cade Klubnik isn't a lot better than he was last year. He still missed a lot of throws. It wasn't all the Georgia defense.
(8) Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This game was never in question. The Penn State defense dominated this game. It was a solid game for Drew Allar and Harrison Wallace III became a household name. Julian who (and also...KeAndre who)?
West Virginia’s game plan today pic.twitter.com/CNy7VCpTXZ
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) August 31, 2024
Virginia Tech (-13.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This one was doomed from the beginning. Tech's offense was discombobulated the entire first half. By the time it finally got things going, Kyron Drones got hurt. He tried to come back in during overtime, but you could tell that he was no longer a threat to run.
Vanderbilt won a game while being seven or more points down in the fourth quarter for the first time in 61 games. This is a team that only won two games last year. I watched enough of Diego Pavia at New Mexico State last year to know that he was a talented player on a really bad team. I thought this year would be more of the same.
Vandy's offensive line and defense looked really good in this game. We won't remember by the time the Commodores get to SEC play, but this is a win they can hang their hats on. Tech was a dark horse to win the ACC this year.
Connecticut at Maryland (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Turns out that the Terps didn't need Taulia Tagovailoa after all. UConn's defense was the strength of the team last year. Tai Felton made them look like a Pop Warner secondary.
Kent State at Pittsburgh (-24.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice debut for Eli Holstein. He gave Pitt the quarterback it has been missing since Kenny Pickett made himself into a first-round pick by Year 5. The running game is in good hands with Desmond Reid.
Yes, Kent is a Group of Five school, but it had a pretty good defense last year. You couldn't tell it here. This is the Pitt offense that has been missing for the last two years.
Akron at (2) Ohio State (-48.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I was close. The Zips lost by 46 instead of 45. If they had managed to score a TD instead of two field goals, I would have been Nostra-freaking-damus.
Colorado State at (4) Texas (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Colorado State isn't a bad team. Texas is just that good.
(19) Miami (FL) (-2.5) at Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Recap of Miami vs Florida:@CanesFootball pic.twitter.com/sKAEZ4MjbX
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 31, 2024
You know ... if Florida had played a good game, it would have given Billy Napier some much-needed goodwill. Miami scored 41 on the Gators, which tied for the highest Hurricanes point total in the series (57 games). Not only is goodwill a pipe dream now, but Florida could have a historically bad season with that schedule.
Cam Ward was as-advertised. Xavier Restrepo couldn't be corralled. The defense looked good. Miami is going to party like it's 1986.
Florida International at Indiana (21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This Indiana team is going to be fun to watch.
UTEP at Nebraska (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A balanced Nebraska offense is dangerous with that defense on the other side of the ball. It's UTEP, so don't get too excited, but the schedule is set up for Nebraska to make a run.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. #neverUMASS
Ohio at Syracuse (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A slow start doomed this for me. Of course, allowing 203 rushing yards to Anthony Tyus III didn't help...
Kennesaw State at UTSA (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kennesaw looked pretty good. What was more concerning was UTSA's inability to run the ball. It won't get very far this season if that remains the case.
Miami (OH) at Northwestern (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm telling you ... this palace has magic within its walls.
Boise State (-12.5) at Georgia Southern: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
All the talk about the Malachi Nelson/Maddux Madsen saga, and we completely forgot about this guy.
.@BroncoSportsFB running back Ashton Jeanty is the winner of Inside College Football's Week 1 Game Ball ?
The Boise State star went CRAZY against Ga. Southern:
? 20 carries
? 267 yards
? SIX touchdowns pic.twitter.com/JlH6RT33AR— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) September 4, 2024
Old Dominion at South Carolina (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Forget the cover...the Gamecocks barely broke 20!
North Texas at South Alabama (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was too much Chandler Morris for the Jags.
Western Kentucky at (5) Alabama (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nothing to see here. It's just like old Alabama with a new offensive genius at the helm.
UNLV at Houston (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is the game that I was most wrong about. Houston had no pulse. Every time it had a positive play, it was followed by a few negative ones. What a dominant performance by the UNLV defense.
Sam Houston at Rice (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was an easy pick. I wish I would have put more on it. Sam Houston might have an offense to go with that stout defense this year.
Nevada at Troy (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's nice to see Texas transfer Savion Red getting some run this year. The irony is that he would probably be getting the same run had he stayed in Austin with CJ Baxter done for the season.
(7) Notre Dame at (20) Texas A&M (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Many Notre Dame fans (and fans of various ACC schools) opined that Sam Hartman might have held the Irish back last year instead of enhancing the offense. I never agreed. After watching this game, I'm starting to think they may have been onto something.
Fresno State at (9) Michigan (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling really good about this pick for the first 50 minutes or so. Michigan ultimately made me sweat it.
UCLA (-14.5) at Hawaii: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
For the life of me, I can't figure out how the UCLA offense was this bad with the braintrust of Deshaun Foster and Eric Bieniemy on the sidelines calling plays. Maybe Ethan Garbers is that bad...
Southern Mississippi at Kentucky (-25.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Kentucky defense is still top-notch. The offense, on the other hand...
Georgia State at Georgia Tech (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Malik Rutherford is throwing his hat in the ring for best receiver in the ACC.
I mean, could he get more open?
Malik Rutherford connects with Haynes King to secure Georgia Tech's win over Georgia State ?@GeorgiaTechFB | @GTAthletics | @cpisecurity | #StingEm ? pic.twitter.com/6BzAzeXDPp
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 1, 2024
James Madison (-7.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I almost raised this bet when the line started falling. I should have.
New Mexico at (21) Arizona (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Tetairoa McMillan took everyone's mind off of how badly the Arizona defense played at times.
Some insane stats around Tetairoa McMillan’s big Week 1:
- 30.4 yards per catch
- 80% of catches went 10+ yards
- 50% of catches went 20+ yards
- TD grabs of 69, 17, 79, and 40 yards
- Only 8 players since 2010 with more single-game receiving yards.— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 5, 2024
Wyoming at Arizona State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Wyoming's offense will never set the world afire, but wow, it looked REALLY bad.
(23) USC vs. (13) LSU (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Miller Moss looked good for the Trojans, but the defense was the real story in this one. With how awful that defense was last year, Trojans fans have to feel good about this one.
Boston College at (10) Florida State (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
My BC outright bet saved my weekend. I went too heavy on Virginia Tech and West Virginia.
College Football Betting Season Results
I had a decent first "full" week, going 20-17. That puts me at 21-18 on the season. We're ahead of Vegas! That's what counts. I should have gained some decent points this week.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-4 (2-4) = -2
2. 8-5 (8-6) = 4
3. 6-4 (6-4) = 6
4. 1-2 (2-2) = 0
5. 3-2 (3-2) = 5
I'm up 13 points to start the season. I can't tell you exactly how much I am up overall because in updating my spreadsheet for all past seasons, I found some "bookkeeping errors" back in 2015 and 2016. I'll get those updated sometime soon so we know exactly where I stand.
However, I am having issues finding all of my 2019 and 2020 articles. This may take longer than I planned.
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