By this stage of the season, there is no such thing as a perfect fantasy move. Every player available to you has warts, be they a lack of track record, unacceptable strikeout rate, or surface stats unsupported by underlying metrics. That first group is the focus of this week's column, as we look at three rookies who have managed to turn heads in their brief MLB exposure.

Specifically, we're looking at Colorado's David Dahl, Chicago's Tim Anderson, and Washington's Trea Turner. All of them have lines that would be fantasy useful the rest of the way, but the sample sizes may not be large enough to totally buy into them. Let's see if we can separate the Champs from the Chumps.

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

David Dahl (OF, COL)

With only 95 PAs thus far, Dahl's .330/.379/.557 line with three dingers and no steals comes in the shortest sample we're looking at. The result of this small sampling is a BABIP of .448, a number far too large for anyone to believe in.

Dahl might be a plus BABIP guy moving forward. He plays at Coors Field, which turns everyone into a plus BABIP guy. His 24.6% LD% is well above the league average, and players that consistently post above average LD% numbers tend to post plus BABIPs as a result. He rarely hits the ball in the air, sporting a FB% of just 24.6%. He has plus speed, and his .351 career BABIP at Double-A could be indicative of a real ability to repeat at least some of these contributing factors.

However, .448 is still heading way south. Dahl's BABIP on fly balls is .417, by far the highest BABIP this column has ever seen in the air. Coors should be expected to boost their productivity, but that number does not even include Dahl's (presumably) best flies. His 20% HR/FB suggests that every ball he hits in the air with authority goes over the fence, disqualified from BABIP totals. How is he hitting .417 when so many of his good flies don't even count?

His .867 BABIP on line drives also figures to be in line for significant regression. Dahl does not have any baseline to compare his current performance to, but the league average is over 100 points lower than Dahl's current total. It is far more likely that this is not representative of his true talent level. A declining LD% with declining productivity on the liners he does hit should take a sizable bite out of Dahl's overall BABIP.

The numbers above also call Dahl's .557 slugging percentage into question. A 24.6% FB% is too low to support a power breakout, even at Coors Field. He also pulls very few of his flies, 13.3% to be exact. As a result, I do not trust the 20% HR/FB. While Dahl hit 18 homers in 400 PAs split between Double-A and Triple-A before his call up this year, he had only six in 326 PAs last year and 14 in 547 PAs the year before. Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt and say he learned something this year, it is irresponsible to project him for more than 25 Coors-aided bombs next year. A lower total would not surprise me at all.

Dahl's plate discipline also leaves a lot to be desired. While his 7.4% BB% looks fine, it masks a 37.3% O-Swing% that suggests serious walk rate regression. Swinging at so many unhittable pitches has also ballooned Dahl's SwStr% to 16.9%, in turn justifying his high 28.4% K%. With just a 78.8% Z-Contact%, Dahl has a lot of swing and miss in his game even when he swings at strikes. Dahl's 40.6% zone% against suggests that this scouting report has already made it around the league, making his job tougher. Dahl may be a true talent .340 BABIP hitter who boasts a poor average anyway thanks to a ton of strikeouts.

Dahl has not yet attempted a SB in the majors, but his minor league history suggests that he will at some point. He swiped 17 bags before his call up this year, 22 in limited time last season, and 21 back in 2014. This speed and the possibility of power growth for a Coors Field player make Dahl an interesting target in deeper keeper and dynasty formats, but I would not want to pay a lot for his current production. Dahl is only 22, and the plate discipline suggests that he is a few years away from reaching his upside, if he ever does.

There are things to like about Dahl. His plus speed, ground ball tendencies, and home park should make him a well above average BABIP guy with SB upside. His power feels fluky, however, and I'm not convinced he makes enough contact for his BABIP to really matter. Short term, the best move is to try to sell him if your trading deadline has not passed. Otherwise, ride the hot hand until he cools down, but be prepared to drop him when he inevitably cools off.

Verdict: Chump

Tim Anderson (SS, CWS)

Anderson's .273/.295/.426 line in 255 PAs with seven home runs and five steals is the least impressive line in this column. He got off to a hot start, but his plate discipline is on a par with Dahl's. Pitchers have learned that they do not need to throw Anderson a strike, and his performance has suffered as a result.

Unlike Dahl, Anderson's surface BB% of 2.7% is awful enough to be indicative of his 38% O-Swing%. Like Dahl, swinging at so many bad offerings has caused both his K% (29%) and SwStr% (15.1%) to soar to unacceptable heights. His 82.2% Z-Contact% is a little better than Dahl's, but still far from enough to project significant plate discipline improvement for him.

That's actually very sad, as Anderson looks like a guy that would be very interesting if he could get the ball into play. He stole 49 bags in 62 attempts at Triple-A last season, numbers that immediately grab the attention of owners in rotisserie leagues. He went 11 for 15 before his call up this season, and 24 for 28 in 2013. His 2014 numbers (16 for 23) leave something to be desired, but we have enough data points that we can throw it out as a simple off year.

Like other speed guys, Anderson figures to post elevated BABIPs moving forward as well. His current .364 mark is actually a professional worst if you throw out a 19 PA stop at Rookie ball (and why wouldn't you?). It will probably still regress somewhat as his .794 BABIP on line drives falls to a more league average rate. Still, his current 54.2% GB% and .308 BABIP on ground balls seem sustainable for a player like Anderson.

While that's good news for Anderson's BABIP, it's bad news for his power. After hitting five homers in 550 PAs at Triple-A last season and 11 over 463 PAs the year before, no one should have expected that he would have seven MLB bombs already. The fact that he does should do nothing to your power expectations of him. A 25.6% FB% is simply not what power is made out of, and increasing it any higher would compromise Anderson's batting average potential. Meanwhile, his minor league history suggests that a 16.3% HR/FB is not his usual rate. Anderson is very much a speed play with batting average upside if he ever stops striking out.

Anderson started his career atop the White Sox lineup, but has more recently been demoted to the 7th and 8th slots. Any counting stat potential he had vanished as a result. There is still enough upside here to hold in a dynasty setting, but he is unlikely to help you much if 2016 is your top priority.

Verdict: Chump

Trea Turner (2B/OF, WAS)

With 13 steals in just 138 PAs and a .313/.333/.527 triple slash line, Turner is proving that he was MLB ready well before his promotion. His three homers are icing on the proverbial cake. Turner has also convinced Washington manager Dusty Baker to bat him leadoff pretty much every night, giving him elite run-scoring opportunities in one of the NL's better lineups. He is by far the most interesting of these rookies for this year.

Turner's SB history (and the fact that Stephen Drew is terrible) had Turner on a lot of preseason prospect lists. Turner swiped 30 in 357 PAs in 2014, getting caught only four times. He stole 29 in 500 PAs last year, getting caught six times. Finally, he pilfered 25 with two CS at Triple-A before the Nats finally invited him to Washington. Danny Espinoza delayed the inevitable, but Turner is now here to run.

You'd like a player with Turner's profile to walk a little, but Turner's 2.9% BB% suggests plate discipline as bad as those above him. However! Turner's underlying 32.5% O-Swing% is only slightly worse than the league average, and his minor league history is full of average to slightly plus walk rates. He may not be a plate discipline monster, but he'll walk enough to keep his fantasy owners happy.

Turner does not strike out as often as his fellow rookies either, as his 19.7% K% is slightly above average. His 11.7% SwStr% is a little higher than average, but it is the result of a very low 50% O-Contact%. Basically, Turner can't hit baseballs you don't want him to hit. Turner's 91.2% Contact% in the zone borders on elite. The net result is plenty of balls in play.

Productivity on balls in play is something Turner shares with both Dahl and Anderson. His .369 BABIP is tied with his BABIP at Triple-A before his call up for the worst mark of his professional career, at least among stops with enough PAs to matter. Like the above players, Turner combines plus speed with a ground ball tendency (43.4%) to produce a strong BABIP.

His 23.6% LD% is also well above average, but his consistently high minor league BABIPs make it at least plausible Turner will be able to sustain it. With a BABIP of just .560 on line drives, it is also possible that some flies are being misclassified as liners. It is still safer to bet on some line drive regression as well as a BABIP on grounders south of its current .391 figure, but Turner should be at least a .330 BABIP guy for the rest of the year.

Like those above him, Turner does not hit enough flies (33% FB%) to hit for a lot of power. The leadoff slot produces few RBI opportunities anyway, so consider Turner the ideal speed play. He has the talent to walk more in the immediate future, boasts good contact skills, and knows how to steal a base. He's even eligible at multiple positions!

Verdict: Champ

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