Fantasy Basketball Buy Low & Sell High Trade Targets: Week Three - Usage Rate Confusion!

November 6, 2026

Dan Besbris identifies five "buy-lows" and four "sell-highs" for fantasy basketball leagues. Take advantage of other managers who might read too much into one good or bad performance early in the season.

Welcome back to the trade machine for week three! This week generally begins the best stretch of the fantasy trade season, which in my opinion spans from now through week six. In week one, we focused on panic and overreactions; week two was about understanding role changes; now we enter the magical window of usage-rate incongruities. If you want to read about usage rate changes this season, check out my buddy Thunder Dan's latest risers and fallers piece!

By week 3, most fantasy managers are beginning to trust the rank of their players, but the vast majority are not paying close enough attention to how their players achieved that rank. Is a player posting an unsustainable steals rate that doesn't match up with their historical numbers? Is a high-usage player having an uncharacteristically poor shooting start to the year? On the flip side, is a lower usage player ultra-hot from distance?

These mismatched stats seem obvious once we point them out, but when fantasy players look only at rankings, they ignore the data and leave themselves vulnerable to our slick trading. Let's discuss "five" (you'll understand why that was in quotation marks in a moment) BUY names and four SELL names that I love right now.

Buy Low Targets

Something in the stats is amiss. We know what it is, but your trade partner (hopefully) does not.

The Entire Chicago Bulls

I suppose it's not entirely fair to lump the whole team into one section, but it's not far from the truth. Only Caleb Wilson and Jalen Smith have posted numbers inside the top-100 so far this year, while Norman Powell, Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis have underperformed to varying degrees.

The beauty of the Chicago Bulls team-wide "buy low" recommendation is that, to this point, the club has barely played any competitive basketball games. Multiple blowout losses have artificially decreased the playing time of our three targets. Additionally, each of those three players has some other main factor hindering their production.

Norman Powell is shooting miserably both from the field and the foul line; Josh Giddey is, supposedly, playing through an injury; Matas Buzelis has just been an overall wreck.

The Bulls have given up at least 124 points in every game this season, including four games giving up over 130 points.

Chicago is now 1-7 overall with games against Philadelphia and San Antonio approaching this week.

— Brett Siegel (@BrettSiegelNBA) November 5, 2026

I was very low on Giddey coming into drafts, so my desire to trade for him is only there if the price is right. Try offering up a player with projected value in the top-70 range. I was also a little lower than consensus on Buzelis, and Wilson's rise has definitely slammed a lid on Matas's potential. Still, if you can get him for a projected top-90 player, I would do it.

The target I like the most in this group is Powell. Norm's usage rate has him in line with a likely fantasy rank between 50 and 70, so acquiring him for anything back of that is a small win. Start lower, and work your way up.

OG Anunoby, SF - New York Knicks

Anunoby might be the most obvious "buy" on the board today. Currently ranked just outside the top-90, OG is already posting fantasy stats in line with his Knicks career marks in almost every category. Just like last year when Anunoby was a 4th-round value, OG is already sitting at over 16 points per game, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists.

Two categories, however, are misaligned! This is exactly what we're looking for when building trades in week three. Right now, Anunoby sits on just 1.1 steals per game and a field goal percentage of only 38.9. During his Knicks tenure, he has nearly etched in stone a steals number closer to 1.5 and a field goal percentage closer to 47 or 48.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that simply adjusting his 2026 steals and FG% up to his career mark would raise Anunoby's rank by four or five rounds.

Offer a player ranked between 75 and 90 to try to get a deal done immediately.

Keyonte George, PG - Utah Jazz

Like Anunoby above, Keyonte George is a victim of falling apart in a category that we know is about to improve. Unlike Anunoby, Keyonte's issue thus far has been at the foul line.

It's not entirely clear that the manager who rosters George will be interested in moving him. George is ranked outside the top-125, but he is still posting 22 points, 4 boards, and 6 assists per game, so it likely doesn't feel as bad as it has actually been. Hilariously, after fears of a healthy Jazz roster taking touches away from George, Keyonte's usage has actually gone up this year!

But man, that free-throw line has been a bummer. Last year, George shot 89% at the charity stripe on seven attempts per game, which placed him among the ten most valuable foul shooters in the NBA. This season, the attempts haven't moved much, but the percentage has dropped to just 77.

Still, it's hard to envision Keyonte's foul shooting dip lasting all year, and a positive move in that category would rocket him back toward the top-50. See if you can acquire George for a player ranked between 65 and 100, as he is likely to pass them all in value.

Zach Edey, C - Memphis Grizzlies

I remain a tiny bit hesitant on Edey, but after a very slow start to the year, mostly in playing time, the value is too great to ignore.

My hesitation is entirely based on health. As I've said on many podcasts, Edey is a mountain with human feet, and over the past season-plus, we've seen those feet struggle to hold the load above them.

The allure is undeniable, though. Edey is the rare big man who can score around the rim, rebound, block shots, and excel in both percentages: a fantasy package with infinite potential.

I was not willing to spend a 6th-round pick on Edey given the recent injury history and the likelihood that the Grizzlies keep his minutes at a modest mark to maintain Edey's health all year. But now that an array of blowouts, foul trouble games, and quiet minute restrictions led to Edey playing only 20.7 minutes per game, I believe it's time to spend a little capital to get him on the cheap.

If Zach can work his way up to 24-to-26 minutes nightly, he has a chance to inch up near the top-50. Edey's current rank is 139. I am comfortable offering anyone ranked between 85 and 125 to get the deal done.

Ausar Thompson, SF - Detroit Pistons

The fantasy community is up in arms about Ausar Thompson's start, and I have to admit, I have no idea why!

By all accounts, Ausar is having exactly the first two weeks we dreamed of on draft night, minus two low-volume, highly variable categories: steals and blocks.

We will get to that issue in a moment. First, I want to make painfully clear how great everything else looks.

Ausar finding JC with the lob https://t.co/zyzeo5dJwL

— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) November 5, 2026

Ausar's minutes are up, year over year, by almost two per game; rebounds are up by three; assists are up by 1.6; even free-throw percentage is on the rise! The sole issue thus far is that Thompson is sitting on only 1.6 combined defensive stats after posting 2.9 last year.

I would sell the farm for this buy low. There is almost no chance Thompson's steals and blocks numbers drop this precipitously, and getting back to last season's 2.9 would push Ausar's ranking potentially as high as top-60.

There is real, tangible, misplaced frustration. Move fast, and offer anything outside the top-80.

Sell High Targets

The story on these names is almost exactly the opposite of the "Buy Low" players above.

Miles Bridges, PF - Phoenix Suns

I want to begin the sell discussion on Miles Bridges by admitting that I was too low on him. I can admit when I'm wrong, but I don't think I'm quite as wrong as it appears.

Miles Bridges is currently ranked 14th in all of fantasy basketball, and he's doing it with one of the lowest usage rates of his career. That, friends, is one of the misalignments we were talking about.

I reckon it's possible that he could have an uptick in FG%. It's possible Bridges might rebound a little better this year, as well, as Phoenix is more willing to extend him to 33 minutes or more when Charlotte preferred to keep starters closer to 31. I might even give Bridges the benefit of the doubt that he can post one of the lowest turnover marks of anyone in the NBA with a usage rate over 20%.

What does not seem possible, though, is Bridges doing all of those things at the same time and seeing his defensive stats spike from 1.4 combined steals and blocks to over 2.3. If any combination of the above stats start to slide back toward the Miles Bridges baseline, his value will fall into the 60s or beyond. Now is the time to try to nab a top-50 player in a trade.

Zion Williamson, PF - New Orleans Pelicans

I almost feel silly putting Zion on here, but there is a blossoming belief in him among the fantasy public that we haven't seen in years. I don't even think it's necessarily about his high rank - he has just looked good so far this season, and sometimes the eye test can be even more powerful than a number.

Speaking of numbers... Williamson is currently ranked 26th in 9-category leagues! Zion's rank over the last three seasons: 117th, 102nd, 109th.

What's the secret to his success so far in 2026? Zion is having the best free-throw shooting season of his career, and his steal rate has more than doubled. Every other metric is almost exactly the same as 2025.

Making buy and sell recommendations is pretty darn easy when the regression is staring you right in the eye, and such is the case for Williamson. I am seeing Zion fetching top-50 players in return, and unless you're punting free throws and can weather the inevitable downturn, see if you too can turn Zion into a player without such an obvious flaw.

Oh, and it can't hurt to ditch him before he blows a hammy.

Duncan Robinson, SG - Detroit Pistons

There's no doubt that Duncan Robinson is going to have a better season than almost any analyst expected. But there's also no doubt that he is way out over his skis and is due for a slide.

Whether or not we can sell Robinson is going to come down to whether you can find a fantasy manager who either hasn't noticed that Duncan's steal rate is nearly triple his career average or has noticed but believes it can continue. I have noticed, but I do not believe it will continue.

Duncan Robinson this season:

19.0 PPG
1.9 RPG
2.3 APG
1.9 SPG
1.1 TOV
47.4 FG%
47.9 3P% on 9.1 attempts 🔥
31.0 MP

In 8 games, Robinson already has 4 20+ point games, he put up 5 in 77 games for Detroit last season 👀 https://t.co/VLEQqWb4t4

— NBARetweet (@RTNBA) November 5, 2026

Robinson does have the green light to nail a billion threes. Yes, that's a perfectly accurate estimate of his annual total. He has always been a knockdown shooter, and with Jalen Duren's absence freeing up some usage and Isaiah Joe's injury bumping up Robinson's minutes, he's in a perfect pocket of production.

Still, even the return of Duren and Joe probably only knock Robinson down by about 15-20% of his current numbers.

The big issue right now remains steals. Duncan Robinson has never been even league-average in defensive stats, and over this season's first two weeks he's among the best players in the entire NBA. As that category either slowly or abruptly drops back toward Robinson's career mark, expect his value to fall from the current third-round rank to something in the 80-to-120 range. If you can get back a reliable 7th-round pick or better, now is the time to consider doing so.

Yaxel Lendeborg, PF - Golden State Warriors

I saved Yaxel for last because I knew it was going to change your opinion of me as a person. Or maybe it won't. I suppose you all already know that I live for the buzzkill.

Here's the thing, though: I really like Lendeborg's outlook. I believe there is a decent chance that he maintains his current top-60 pace.

Still, he's a rookie. He's an old rookie, but a rookie nonetheless, and the longer the Warriors stay competitive, the more he's at risk of gassing himself midseason. Similarly, if the Warriors keep winning games, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody have more motivation to return. They aren't taking Lendeborg's spot in the lineup, but every competent body means the slices of the pie get a little thinner.

The cool thing about selling Lendeborg is that you can likely get a return package worth more than his current valuation. This is a no-brainer. Folks are giving up bona fide 4th and 5th round players for Yaxel in the hopes that his production can go higher. Take those safe studs, embrace the boredom of it all, and thank me later even if your team is less fun to watch.

Stacks on Stacks

My favorite part about these upcoming weeks is that there are almost always five to ten names where the stats don't align. Your goal, as always, should not be to turn a late-round flier into a superstar in one swing.

Upgrade methodically and incrementally, using these lists as a guide for how to grab one or two rounds of profit in each deal.

Once we get into December, we will begin to discuss trades that bolster particular categories for a playoff run, but for now, we can still aim for the player most likely to put up the best season numbers... repeatedly.