Must Avoids: Big-Name Fantasy Football Players To Fade - Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Keenan Allen, more

August 10, 2024

Andrew Ball identifies the potential fantasy football busts, avoids and draft fades. Which big-name fantasy football players should you avoid drafting in 2024?

Whether you are a seasoned fantasy football manager who reads RotoBaller articles all off-season or a rookie to the real world of fake football, there are a handful of names that everybody knows.

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are arguably the most famous players in the league today. You were disappointed if you selected those big-name Chiefs at their ADP last season. Mahomes, ADP's top quarterback in 2023, finished as the QB8. Kelce didn't give managers the positional advantage that he did in past seasons.

Big names do not always equal fantasy success. Below are a handful of household names to avoid in 2024.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Can I interest you in an oft-injured running back who will turn 30 in December and transferred from the superior Green Bay offense to Minnesota in the offseason? No? Any takers? I think I see a few in the back...

Some fantasy managers will see Aaron Jones available on their draft sheet in the fifth round and run, not walk, to place the sticker on the board (for those who still use the old-school sticker method). He was a top-11 running back in PPR formats for four straight seasons (2019 through 2022), and our lasting memory of him is five straight 100-yard rushing games, including two in the postseason.

Let's flashback to what happened before he went nuclear on the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round. Due to a hamstring injury, Jones didn't play more than 50% of the team's snaps in any game until Week 8. An MCL injury sent him back to the sidelines for another three weeks later in the season. Finally, in Week 16, he became a high-usage player.

We can blame the injuries and project him to bounce back in 2024. But remember, injuries occur more often for running backs when they get old. That's not the old that you and I are currently suffering through. That's NFL old, a.k.a. 28 years old.

The Packers released Jones in the offseason after signing Josh Jacobs. A day later, he inked a deal with the division rival Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' offense won't be on par with the Packers. They do have the best wide receiver in football, but there are concerns about the rest of the offensive starters. T.J. Hockenson (more below) is beginning training camp on the PUP list after tearing his ACL and MCL late in the season. Jordan Addison could face discipline for his recent arrest. And don't even get me started on the quarterback situation...

With the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Minnesota #Vikings select

JJ McCarthy QB Michigan pic.twitter.com/LmSQBHbGD3

— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) April 26, 2024

Actually, I'm here now; let's chat about it. One of two things will happen: Two-time starting quarterback failure Sam Darnold will be handed the reigns to a third franchise, or rookie first-round selection J.J. McCarthy will begin the year under center. Both options could be serviceable in a Sean McVay coaching tree offense, but either would back up Kirk Cousins if he had stayed in Minnesota.

There's also the Ty Chandler factor. The third-year professional finished last year as Minnesota's starting running back and had a fantasy-relevant role. He was a standout at minicamp and will have a solidified role in this backfield. That's not unfamiliar to Jones, who split duties with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon in Green Bay. However, that was on an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, not the offense we'll witness in Minnesota.

Jones is viewed as a low-end RB2, but the running backs being drafted around him (Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, David Montgomery, and Zamir White) all hold less risk. The days of Jones being a lock-and-load first-round selection for fantasy football are over.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns and T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Out of sight, out of mind, right? We don't get weekly (sometimes daily) updates about the injury status of star players as we do during the season. The start of a new season doesn't magically cure injuries.

Nick Chubb required multiple surgeries to repair his ACL and MCL after a devastating Week 2 injury. T.J. Hockenson tore the same ligaments in Week 16. Both stars are opening training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list (despite Chubb showing off his insane strength in the weight room).

.@NickChubb looks ready to get back out there. 😤👏

(via joc.films/IG) pic.twitter.com/RiNqK9oVIH

— NFL (@NFL) July 15, 2024

By all accounts, both gentlemen are ahead of schedule in their recovery efforts. That doesn't mean you should jump on the opportunity to add them to your fantasy football roster.

In a best-case scenario, Chubb is on the active roster for Week 1. Still, there's zero chance that Chubb will get a full workload anytime during the first half of the season. Jerome Ford filled in admirably in his stead last season. The Browns also signed D'Onta Foreman in the offseason. The backups are proven commodities in the NFL, allowing Cleveland to bring Chubb back up to speed slowly. The former Georgia Bulldog is turning 29 during the season. The recovery timeline may be extended due to his age. Expect a version of Chubb that won't be worth a weekly spot in your lineup.

Hockenson will join a new-look offense if he's ready for kickoff weekend. Cousins historically depended on his tight ends. It's a large part of why Hockenson set career-best marks in catches (95), yards (960), and catch rate (74.8%). He also led all tight ends in target share (24.3%). That volume and success rate won't be the same now that Cousins is in Atlanta.

In a worst-case scenario, Chubb and Hockenson remain on the PUP list at the end of August when final roster cutdowns are submitted to the league. That means they'll be forced to miss at least the first four games of the regular season. Then, the clock begins based on what we have laid out in the best-case scenarios. Players that start the year missing time typically never live up to their draft capital.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears and Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs have a few commonalities. They are former Pro Bowl wideouts nearing the twilight of their careers, joining a new team in the offseason brimming with talent at the position. They're also paired with a young quarterback.

Allen was brought to Chicago to give first-overall pick Caleb Williams all of the opportunities to succeed. D.J. Moore has already proved himself as a WR1 in the league. Allen, one of the most reliable targets in the last decade, gives Williams a safety blanket opposite of Moore. Then, the Bears dipped their toe into the luxury pool and selected Washington's Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick. Toss in tight end Cole Kmet, who caught over 70 passes last season, and there are a lot of players in Chicago clamoring for targets.

Allen was on pace for a career year in 2023 until a late-season injury (and the lack of success for the Chargers) prevented him from picking up the best marks across the board. This will be the first time in Allen's professional career that he won't be atop the wide receiver depth chart. He also recently turned 32 years old and hasn't played a full season since 2019.

For two straight seasons, Diggs faded in the second half of the season. Fantasy managers can't win a championship with their WR1 finishing as the WR45 or higher only twice after Week 10. The WR9 overall finish is misleading. His five 100-yard games and five of his eight scores happened in the first six weeks. Whether it was his performance or his reportedly waffling commitment to the team, the Bills dealt him to Houston in the offseason.

It's a perfect deal for the Texans in a real-life football sense. Fantasy football, not so much. Nico Collins and Tank Dell established themselves as one of the top wide receiver duos in the NFL last season, despite Collins showing little before the 2023 season and Dell being a mid-round rookie. Throw Diggs into the equation, and this is the best wide receiver room in football.

When Diggs arrived in Houston, the team wiped out the final years of his contract. Diggs is playing on a one-year deal this year. It will motivate him to prove himself and earn another expensive contract to wrap up his career. But the Texans also aren't necessarily factoring him into their long-term future. Collins signed a $72M extension and Dell is entering his sophomore season. Those are the receivers that will be on the roster year after year.

Tank Dell

Stacked Texans WR room
⁃ Collins
⁃ Diggs
⁃ Dell

All top 50 picks in drafts…

Dell is cheapest & possibly HOU WR1.

WR13 overall Wks 2-12 in full time role.

Weeks 8-12 before injury
- 10+ targets per game
- WR3 overall

Now fully healthy.

pic.twitter.com/kqRh3r9WRz https://t.co/scUNzmDxom

— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) June 21, 2024

Despite his 5-foot-8 stature, Dell lined up wide three times more often than he did in the slot. Collins also primarily plays outside the numbers. Does that mean Diggs is the primary slot option, or will there be a true rotation? Those are the questions that will make or break Diggs' fantasy football prospects. C.J. Stroud is an incredible young talent, but even the best quarterbacks struggle to make three wideouts weekly fantasy starters.

Diggs is being selected, on average, in the middle of the third round. Dell can be picked as late as two rounds after Diggs. That's better value for a guy who may play more snaps and could earn more targets than Houston's new arrival.

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