Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 11

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

We're looking at two mid-twenties righties this week. One with a lot of prospect history in Baltimore's Dylan Bundy, and one with virtually no notable pedigree with Texas's Adrian Sampson.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 06/11/2019. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers widely available that could be useful in fantasy, whether they have been recently added by a ton of teams or are still sitting on waivers.

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Adrian Sampson, Texas Rangers

17% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this week): 51.2 IP, 4.53 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 9.7% K-BB%

06/02 vs. KC: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
06/08 vs. OAK: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Sampson is the latest in a series of Texas Rangers putting up unexpectedly good results, and like many of his fellow Texas hurlers, his track record is less-than-stellar. Sampson only had 27.2 career big league innings prior to this season, and posted a 4.88 ERA, 6.45 FIP, and 2.6 HR/9 over that time. The most notable thing about him was that the Pirates traded him one-for-one to get J.A. Happ, a disastrous trade for the Seattle Mariners. Mariners’ ineptitude aside, Sampson himself doesn’t exactly having eye-popping stuff on paper. His primary fastball is a 92.6 MPH sinker; Sampson has improved his velocity by one MPH, and those velocity gains have largely held even as he’s transitioned from a relief role to a starting pitcher. Sampson’s fastball, while often misclassified as a four-seamer, displays unusual tendencies for a two-seam fastball.

Sampson’s two-seamer is an odd one, at least from a batted ball perspective. Typically, a sinker is at its best when inducing groundballs. The entire profile of a sinkerballer is predicated on getting groundballs. It’s what made pitchers like Dallas Keuchel so effective in their prime. Sampson’s sinker only has a 36.3% groundball rate this year along with a 15-degree average launch angle against. This pitch has also been hammered by opposing hitters for a .338 AVG and .255 ISO. Sinkerball pitchers are already a dying breed, and one that pitches in Texas and can’t induce groundballs should scare owners away.

While there are legitimate concerns with his sinker, that pitch hasn’t been Sampson’s key to success anyway. His much-improved slider has worked wonders for him thus far. Sampson’s slider has gone from a seldom-used, and seldom-effective, afterthought to the centerpiece of his pitching style. The pitch has a 19% SwStr rate this season, and Sampson has improved the chase rate by 12% in 2019. He is throwing it 2.5 MPH slower this season, and raised its spin rate 400 RPM to 2600. With its looping vertical movement, the pitch acts are more of a slurve than a traditional slider. Here are a few examples from his start against the Royals.

Poor Jorge Soler; there's not much he can do against that pitch in a two-strike count. A slurve like that can induce whiffs on a regular basis, and can be hard to square up unless Sampson hangs it. He has a certifiable strikeout pitch, something that gives him inherent value all season long. This isn't a breakout into must-start status for Sampson, but he's moving up in value from a nobody to a streamer with upside.

Verdict:

Even knowing that Sampson’s slider has made big improvements, it’s about all the righty has going for him. He has an okay-ish changeup to use against lefties, and a downright bad fastball. Add in the Texas factor, and Sampson suddenly has a lot more negatives than positives. He’s streamable for sure, but don’t expect this gravy train to keep on chugging all season.

Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

11% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 64 IP, 4.64 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 14.9% K-BB%

06/09 @ HOU: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Bundy has been one of the most disappointing sleeper pitchers over the past few seasons. The young right-hander certainly has the stuff to take the next step, but inconsistent control and chronic Gopheritis have always kept Bundy from achieving his full potential. So, it’s always worth keeping tabs on Bundy, and checking in when he strings together a few good outings. The profile with Bundy is mostly the same as its always been. He’s got the killer slider, his fastball is below average and causes much of his trouble, and he lacks an effective third pitch to take some of the pressure off. The last bit may be changing, however, as Bundy has doubled his changeup usage this season and is getting more effective results with the pitch.

The absence of a third pitch has always amplified the problems Bundy has with his fastball. Two-pitch pitchers like Chris Archer have succeeded before, but Archer at least had a solid fastball to pitch off of while setting up his dominant slider. Bundy has never been able to do that, but improvements with his changeup could be a difference maker for him. Bundy is not only using his changeup more often in 2019 (20.2% usage this season vs. 10.1% last year), the pitch is far more effective as well. Bundy has gained about three inches of vertical movement on the changeup while shaving 200 RPM off the spin rate. Batters are struggling against the pitch as well, hitting just .224 off Bundy’s change compared to .356 last year. The groundball rate is up 9% and opponents are averaging a -1-degree launch angle off Bundy’s changeup. The most glaring difference is in the platoon splits. Bundy has spent his career being abused by lefties, and coming into 2019 left-handed batters were hitting .282 with a .355 wOBA and 1.6 HR/9 off Bundy. This season they are hitting .236 with a .311 wOBA, numbers comparable to Bundy’s performance against right-handed batters.

It’s entirely possible that improvements to the changeup could be the answer for Bundy, especially since his slider is as good as ever. Those familiar with Bundy know how good this pitch is, but for the uninitiated, Bundy has a 24% SwStr rate with his slider this season, and batters are hitting .121 with a .142 xBA and .241 SLG. The slider is on par with just about anyone in the majors, and Bundy is more than capable of maintaining an above average strikeout with this arsenal. His poor fastball quality is still a concern, as batters are hitting .316 with a .632 SLG against the pitch, but he does have a .260 xBA with his fastball, so there is hope for positive regression with the pitch. Even if the batting average regression comes, Bundy is still going to allow home runs with the pitch. You can’t have a 57.6% flyball rate with your fastball while playing your home games in Baltimore and expect to keep the ball in the yard. That being said, Bundy is still a high-risk, high-reward streaming option in the right circumstance. He’s someone who is usable when he goes to a neutral ballpark, facing a weak lineup, or in a two-start week. He has the potential for double digit strikeouts on any given night, but also has the potential to ruin your week’s ratios in a single inning. Sometimes, that’s a dice worth rolling. And with the development of his changeup, Bundy could end up being more than a volatile streamer.

Verdict:

Dylan Bundy may finally be developing the elusive third pitch, and he revamped changeup should help him cut back on some of his inconsistencies as a pitcher. He still has a putrid fastball, and will fall victim to the longball with frequency, but there is growth potential. He is a streamer in the right circumstances, and not a bad player to grab as a speculative add either.

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