RADIO
Welcome everyone to the first part of my analysis of the first round of the MLB draft! In today's segment, I will be going over picks 11-30 made by teams in the first round of the draft. Tomorrow, I will go over the top 10, delving into slightly more detail with those 10 players.
These prospects are all expected to have dynasty value in one way or another, though owners will obviously have to be patient with these players. Being that I am in a deep, 20-team, 45-player, 28-keepers dynasty league, I will be examining pure value over the next couple of seasons, and what owners in similarly deep leagues will want to know about these players that have been drafted. Though some of these players will undoubtedly have value in shallower keeper leagues, I will be coming at this from a deeper dynasty league point-of-view as that is probably where the bulk of these prospects have the most value.
So without any further ado, let's start talking MLB draft prospects!
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- Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping for Week 5
MLB Draft Prospects: 11-20
11. Chicago White Sox: Jake Burger (3B, Missouri State)
Age: 21
ETA: 2020
Burger was considered one of the premier power hitters in the draft, particularly when only considering college players. He launched 22 homers last season and slashed .328/.443/.648. But he played in the weak Missouri Valley Conference, and not everyone is sold just yet on his overall hit tool. If he can carry over his promising plate discipline into pro ball, his power should carry him to the majors. But I think it will take him a few seasons before he is fully ready to face major-league pitching.
12. Pittsburgh Pirates: Shane Baz (SP, Concordia Lutheran HS)
Age: 17
ETA: 2023
The key here with Baz is signability. Will he sign with Pittsburgh, or remain strong in his commitment to Texas Christian? For dynasty owners, Baz going to TCU would initially be disappointing, but that school has produced solid pitching talents like Brandon Finnegan and Jake Arrieta, neither of whom took particularly long to go from the draft to the majors. That ETA may not change even if the future frontline starting pitcher goes to TCU. From a talent perspective, he has the third-most upside of any high school pitcher in this draft, putting on a display of five pitches with three grading as well above-average. If there was a high school pitcher you wanted to own not named Mackenzie Gore or Hunter Greene, this should be the guy.
13. Miami Marlins: Trevor Rogers (SP, Carlsbad HS)
Age: 19
ETA: 2023
I'm a bit skeptical of Rogers. He's old for a high school senior, already at age 19. His command isn't overwhelmingly sharp, and MLB Pipeline grades his fastball as the only above-average pitch he has. His massive 6-foot-6 frame gives him plenty of upside, but he is a risky guy to own in many dynasty leagues. I would refrain from adding him until he proves himself in the minors.
14. Kansas City Royals: Nick Pratto (1B, Huntington Beach HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2021
It's always tough to get excited about high school first base prospects. There's so much risk involved, and their debuts are always going to be so far down the line. But if there was ever one to be excited about, it would be Pratto. Scouts love his bat, with many calling it the most advanced out of any high school hitter. His power is still mostly raw, but some believe 20-homer pop should be on the way eventually. The first base tag can be pretty brutal though, especially considering he still has some development left in him. But he is as talented a first base high school prospect that has come around in a while, and owners could buy into him a tad early to get in on his high offensive ceiling.
15. Houston Astros: J.B. Bukauskas (SP, North Carolina)
Age: 20
ETA: 2019
It's very possible we will look back at the draft and say the Astros wound up with the biggest steal. Bukauskas was considered a consensus top-10 pick for much of the time leading up to the draft, but a blister and poor ACC/NCAA tournament performances hindered his stock. But his stuff is electric, as the 6-foot righty combines an upper-90s fastball with the best slider in the draft class. He commands the zone well and shouldn't let his smaller stature get in the way of a promising career. At this point, the development of his changeup could make or break his career as a starter, but I'm buying into Bukauskas as a starter and believe he could be one of the quicker risers to the majors in this draft.
16. New York Yankees: Clarke Schmidt (SP, South Carolina)
Age: 21
ETA: 2021
Schmidt seemed to have a sky-high ceiling in terms of where he could go in the draft, but after Tommy John surgery hit him, major questions started to arise. As it turned out, he still found his way to the middle of the first round. His stuff before the surgery was electric, as he had a mid-90s, sinking fastball and a pair of above-average breaking pitches. However, the surgery is a major concern, and though guys have turned their careers around after the surgery before, it will undoubtedly give owners warranted pause before adding him to their rosters. But if Schmidt makes a full recovery, he could emerge as one of the top arms to come from this draft.
17. Seattle Mariners: Evan White (1B, Kentucky)
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
If you ask me, this is the most advanced hitter in the draft class as a whole. White has great plate discipline, and ties that together with solid bat-to-ball skills and budding power. And don't let that first base position fool you, he is incredibly athletic, drawing comparisons to Cody Bellinger as a guy who might play first base, or all three outfield positions. White could be a high-riser to the majors and has the bat to profile well at first base as he continues to grow more game power in that 6-foot-3 frame of his.
18. Detroit Tigers: Alex Faedo (SP, Florida)
Age: 21
ETA: 2020
Once considered the top college prospect in this class, Faedo's stock slipped this season after a rough start to the year. But like Kyle Wright of Vanderbilt, he was able to rebuild a lot of the lost stock with a second-half turnaround. His stuff throughout the process has remained electric and he has continued to appear like a future No. 2 or 3 starter in the big leagues. If he can improve his changeup and develop more control of all three pitches, he could reach that upside in just a few seasons.
Interesting side-note about Faedo, this is the second time Detroit has drafted him. They also selected him out of his school in the 40th round with the 1210th overall pick.
19. San Francisco Giants: Heliot Ramos (OF, Leadership Christian Academy)
Age: 17
ETA: 2024
The sky is the limit for Ramos. Scouts said he has some of the best (if not the best) raw power in the draft as well as speed on the basepaths. The problem is he has shown a fringy hit tool throughout his Puerton Rican baseball career. Strikeouts will likely be an issue for him, and could hinder his development as he tries to move through the minors. Of the players discussed in this article, none fit the expression, "high risk, high reward" quite as well as Ramos. I want to see how he adjusts to professional pitching though before I'm buying into him just yet.
20. New York Mets: David Peterson (SP, Oregon)
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
With pinpoint command and an electric fastball, it is not surprising Peterson went as high as he did. Oregon's top starting pitcher, Peterson has impressed scouts with his average-to-above-average array of pitches, coupled with a remarkable ability to keep the walks to an absolute minimum, all while displaying remarkable durability. His stuff is not as electric as some of the other college starters taken before and after him, but he is one of the more likely pitchers to reach a rotation given his durability and control. He has a very high floor and could be a solid add for owners looking for a reliable arm in the draft class.
21. Baltimore Orioles: D.L. Hall (SP, Valdosta HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2023
Scouts have long clamored over the upside of Hall, and with his fastball/curveball combination, it's not hard to see why. Despite standing at only 6-foot even, he has demonstrated exceptional effectiveness with both those pitches and can put a lot behind his fastball. He also has a smooth delivery for a high schooler, a relief to many who worry about young arms with whacky deliveries. He has a couple years of development, so owners can take their time adding him as they wait to see how he handles pro ball, but he will certainly be an arm to keep on the watch list.
22. Toronto Blue Jays: Logan Warmoth (SS, North Carolina)
Age: 21
ETA: 2020
Collegiate shortstops seem to be popular every year, but they weren't this year. It took 21 picks to come off the board before the consensus top shortstop was taken off the board. However, it's not all that surprising. Warmoth is no Dansby Swanson or Alex Bregman. He is a solid defender who put up excellent numbers for UNC, but who's numbers — many believe — exceed the talent. He tallied 10 homers and 18 stolen bases to go along with a .336 batting average, but he is considered to be at best a future 15/15 hitter in the majors. He makes enough contact to post a solid average, but he is not a super exciting prospect just yet, and does not have to be added in many dynasty leagues.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jeren Kendall (OF, Vanderbilt)
Age: 21
ETA: 2020
Now if you want to talk about exciting, look at Kendall. Viewed by many as the toolsiest college bat in the draft, Kendall can do it all. He can run like nobody's business (20 stolen bases), he can hit for power (15 homers) and post a decent batting average (.307). But the big cause for concern is the strikeouts. He has whiffed 74 times in 62 games this season, and scouts believe it to be a major flaw in his game. The raw tools are there for an exceptional player, but he needs to cut down on the strikeouts if he is going to remain one of the top prospects in the game. Still though, you can't match his power/speed upside with many others, and that has to count for something. He is worthy of a very skeptical own in deep dynasty leagues.
24. Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck (SP, Missouri)
Age: 20
ETA: 2019
The Red Sox get to make a big decision: is Houck a reliever or a starter? If he is a reliever, he could be in the majors by next season. If he is a starter, he still has until 2020 or 2021 before he is ready. His upper-90s fastball is his clear standout pitch, and he needs to improve on his other secondary offerings before he is ready to make it to the rotation. But he possesses above-average control of his arsenal, which should help him remain in the rotation. If that slider and changeup can catch up to the fastball, he could be a future frontline starting pitcher. But owners need to be skeptical of him until he proves he can put his late 2017 struggles behind him.
25. Washington Nationals: Seth Romero (SP, Houston)
Age: 21
ETA: 2018
Romero was kicked off Houston's baseball team for repeated violations of team and university rules. That is not a good look. Fortunately for him, his stuff has always looked really good, and it is why in spite of his off-the-field issues, he was drafted in the first round. Some view Romero as a starter longterm, and it's very possible the Nationals do too. But most believe he will be used as a reliever to get his electrifying stuff to the majors fast, meaning he could theoretically end 2017 in the Show. If he is a reliever, his stuff is good enough to close, but he will have to compete with Koda Glover longterm for saves, a battle he could lose. Before stashing him just yet, be sure to see what the Nationals plans are with the southpaw.
26. Texas Rangers: Bubba Thompson (OF, McGill-Toolen HS)
Age: 19
ETA: 2023
Thompson is one of the toolsiest high school outfielders in the draft. Scouts praise his untapped raw power, citing his 6-foot-2 frame as reason for optimism that he can bulk up and add some more thump to his bat. But his calling card remains his speed, his hit tool and his defense, which helped him get drafted as high as he did. He has almost a prototypical leadoff hitter profile, though he could come with more pop than the average table-setter. He has a ton of development left, which limits his dynasty value as owners will need to be extremely patient with him. But the payoff at the end of the wait could be huge.
27. Chicago Cubs: Brendon Little (SP, State College of Florida Manatee - Sarasota)
Age: 20
ETA: 2021
The first pitcher out of junior college selected in the draft, Little has a scouting report resembling that of a future reliever. High-octane stuff, average-to-below-average secondary offerings and concerning command. Some believe the Cubs will work with him as a starter, but personally, I see his future in the bullpen. He could be a backend of the bullpen guy with his fastball and a developed curveball, but he still has a lot of work to do in the minors before he's ready even for that tag. Hold off on buying his stock just yet.
28. Toronto Blue Jays: Nate Pearson (SP, Central Florida)
Age: 20
ETA: 2021
The second straight junior college arm drafted, Pearson has the higher upside of the two, though he too is not without his risks. His fastball consistently reaches the upper-90s and is one of the best in the class. But his secondary offerings aren't great, and neither is his command. The Blue Jays might work with him for a time as a starter, but his fallback — like Little — could be a future in the bullpen. That's where I think he winds up, and as a result, I cannot advise he be stashed in any format just yet.
29. Texas Rangers: Christopher Seise (SS, West Orange HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2023
Seise is all about pure upside. His 6-foot-2 frame at shortstop screams future power potential, but that isn't the name of his game right now. Instead, he is regarded as a guy who makes a lot of hard contact into the gaps and takes advantage of his blazing speed to help him post a ton of extra-base hits. He is also a solid defender, and many scouts believe shortstop can remain his future home. The risk, however, is that his bat reverts to what it was before his senior season and he doesn't develop any pop. He is an intriguing player, but not one worthy of stashing just yet.
30. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lange (SP, Louisiana State)
Age: 21
ETA: 2020
LSU has developed quite the track record for developing talented starting pitching prospects, and Lange seems to be no different. He has a well rounded repertoire with one of the best fastball/curveball combinations in the draft, with a changeup that has made improvements this season. However, his command is lacking, bringing into question his future role. If the Cubs use him as a reliever, his stuff could help him reach the majors in short time. But with all the questions surrounding his future role, he can be avoided for now in dynasty leagues.
