Evaluating Early Air Yard Data - Week 3

Pierre Camus analyzes the first two weeks of air yards data for wide receivers to find fantasy football risers and WR sleepers on waivers.

Air yards are becoming a more commonly used statistic for fantasy football purposes. Popularized by Josh Hermsmeyer, who developed metrics like RACR (receiver air conversion ratio) and WOPR (weighted opportunity rating), it is a useful way to dig deeper into receiver performance beyond just targets, receptions, and yards gained.

Statistics like Mike Clay's aDoT (average depth of target) are helpful in explaining how a receiver has primarily been used, whether mostly on shorter routes like most slot receivers or as a field-stretcher at the Z position. In future weeks, we'll dive into those advanced statistics once the sample size is larger.

For now, let's evaluate some of the early leaders in total air yards and team air yard share in order to determine which WR options might be undervalued or ready to regress. Data is taken from Addmorefunds and is current as of September 23.

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Air Yards Leaders Worth Noting

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Those looking for solace in the wake of Green's three-catch Thursday night performance could point to the fact he was targeted a whopping 13 times, bringing his total to 22 in two games. Of course, the fact he wasn't able to connect on the majority of those targets can also be a cause for concern. Seeing as how nobody expected Green to jump back up to fantasy WR1 status this year anyway, it should be viewed more as a positive. Plus, there's the fact he looks to be healthy and Joe Burrow is the real deal.

Not only is Green getting targeted a ton, though, but he is also by far the leader in total air yards with 338. The next closest is DeSean Jackson with 282 and only five receivers are within 100 yards of his total! The Bengals are slowly working Tee Higgins into the mix and Tyler Boyd is a capable receiver too but that shouldn't matter. The Bengals appear ready to let Burrow sling it, as evidenced by his 61 attempts in Week 2, so there will be plenty of targets to go around. Buy into Green as a solid WR2 for the time being.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Has Mike Williams been playing this season? It would be easy to forget since he showed up on the injury report before Week 1 and wasn't expected to play, therefore taking a seat on most fantasy benches. He did come out to catch four passes for 69 yards before laying an egg with two catches for 14 yards in Week 2. His numbers aren't impressive but it is worth noting that he has 211 air yards, which is equal to Calvin Ridley and more than DK Metcalf after two games. Just slightly different results.

Williams' four-reception opener should have been higher, as he was targeted nine times, including several down the field. That's because Tyrod Taylor was behind center slinging it deep. He ranks second in Intended Air Yards per attempt at 11.2 although his Completed Air Yards per attempt is far lower at 4.3 (16th). If Justin Herbert is still the starter this week as it seems and for the remainder of the season, does that hurt Williams? It sure could. It's too early to tell what a Herbert-led offense will fully look like but it's safe to say Williams won't see the same volume of deep passes like he did with Philip Rivers last year or in one game with Taylor.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers

A Week 1 blowout against a Minnesota team that suddenly doesn't know how to play defense led to a 96-yard day on four receptions for MVS. Much of the damage came on a 45-yard touchdown pass but it wasn't all he contributed. Fast forward a week and the Pack again put up 40+ points with Valdes-Scantling catching three of seven targets for 64 yards. One of those went for 41 yards, again accounting for much of his yardage.

At this point, it's obvious what he is in this offense - the deep threat and fly guy who will try to beat DBs down the field while all the attention is given to Davante Adams and/or Aaron Jones. So far, it's working. Although a 53.8% catch rate isn't impressive (neither is a 50% career Comp%), that statistic doesn't necessarily correlate with fantasy production. Several of last year's receiving yard leaders were under a 60% catch rate because their yards per reception average was so high.

This isn't to say that Valdes-Scantling will be a top-20 receiver or is in the same neighborhood as Mike Evans or Kenny Golladay. The point is that a steady share of targets can lead to enough big plays to make him flex-worthy in the right matchups. It's hard to fathom Green Bay's passing offense clicking this well all year long but Aaron Rodgers has an obvious reason to be motivated.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals

What's disappointing about Kirk is the 12.86% target share. When you have a guy like DeAndre Hopkins gobbling up all the passes (25 targets in two games), it's easy to see a decline. Larry Fitzgerald is also very much still alive with 12 targets to trump Kirk's 11. This offense isn't spreading the ball around as much as promised but Kirk still isn't benefiting, at least not yet.

The encouraging sign is that Kliff Kingsbury is trying to take advantage of Kirk's speed on downfield routes while Fitz works underneath as usual and Nuk owns the perimeter. Kirk is second among all receivers with a 20.1 aDoT, behind Marvin Hall Jr. This will lead to a boom-or-bust output for Kirk most weeks where he will have to exploit good matchups. San Francisco was not a good matchup in Week 1 and Washington's defense allowed Kyler Murray to beat them with his legs rather than his arm. A tussle with Detroit could be a good spot to flex Kirk if you are willing to take the risk but his air yard total will only help those not in full PPR leagues.

Air Yard % Leaders Worth Noting

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

The fact that Thielen is one of two receivers who has over 50% of his team's air yards so far makes a lot of sense. It's telling that the team didn't replace Stefon Diggs with another receiver outside of rookie Justin Jefferson and has little depth at the position. Bisi Johnson is the only other wide receiver to catch a pass this year for the Vikes. It's been the Thielen show, as he put up a monster 6-110-2 line in the opener before catching three of eight targets in their second contest. Unfortunately, despite the heavy attention he's getting from Kirk Cousins, we could see more games like Week 2 going forward.

If Thielen is going to consistently draw the other team's top corner and defenses don't have to respect the other targets, it will be tough to imagine his continuing to put up big receiving numbers. Plus, Minnesota is going to stay with the running game as often as possible in a trend that began last year. Thielen still has WR2 upside but his output will largely be dependent on game script unlike most alpha receivers. The upcoming contest with Tennessee might be low-scoring but the Vikes then face Houston, Seattle, and Atlanta which are all plus-plus WR matchups. If he is a dud in Week 3, consider throwing out lowball offers for him.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Small sample alert: Edelman's huge Sunday night game in Seattle (eight receptions for 179 yards) accounts for most of his production. Much like Thielen, he is guaranteed a high target share but not necessarily a high weekly volume because of the run-first nature of his offense. It is intriguing to see Edelman used down the field so much in his first tour with a new non-Brady quarterback, though. N'Keal Harry seems to be the short-yardage receiver who is simply catching screen passes and staying near the line of scrimmage.

Edelman ranks ninth in total air yards with 233 after amassing 172 in Week 2 alone. His AY% didn't shoot up very much though, as it was 49% after the opener and now is at 52.24%, good for second among all receivers and just 0.15% behind the leader in Thielen. It would be a pleasant surprise for those who settled for Edelman as a low-end WR2 if he continues this type of usage but there are no guarantees. Still, it's a promising start so Edelman can be started with more confidence than previously though.

Kendrick Bourne, San Francisco 49ers

This one is easy - no Brandon Aiyuk in Week 1, no George Kittle in Week 2, no Deebo Samuel at all so far. The Niners' de facto WR1 has been Bourne because he's practically the only one healthy. No, Dante Pettis still doesn't count.

Although he currently ranks 10th in team air yard share at 37%, that number is sure to drop precipitously even if Samuel doesn't return soon. Last year, Bourne came away with a 12.7% AY%. The fact that Nick Mullens is now at QB and the running game is also a big question mark doesn't bode well for the offense as a whole. He is very streamable in Week 3 based on the matchup with the Jets and the fact that there is still a questionable designation for Kittle.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Based on last year's 21.75% air yard share and 18% target share, Johnson's current 32.6% AY% and 31.9% TGT% are signs of an expected step forward in his second season. Having Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback was obviously going to help his situation. What was unknown prior to the start of the season is how the targets would be distributed with a healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster on the field, Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron added to the mix, and James Conner back to tote the rock. It's gone surprisingly to Johnson's favor by a wide margin.

Johnson is getting the most targets but he isn't the top fantasy producer among Steelers receivers because he has zero red-zone targets as opposed to two end-zone targets for Smith-Schuster which both resulted in touchdowns. Johnson has one more catch and 32 more yards than Smith-Schuster so far; it appears both can function as fantasy WR2 types harmoniously. They've had an easy start to the season by facing the Giants and Broncos, so we'll see how consistent this passing game can be once things tighten up. Johnson is also battling a toe injury, so keep an eye on that.

Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams

The most surprising name on here is second-round pick Van Jefferson, who looks to be replacing Josh Reynolds as the WR3 in L.A. You'd figure the team didn't spend that high a pick on someone they didn't have plans for and it's not as if Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods are going anywhere. The increased implementation of 12 personnel has been a talking point all offseason but Gerald Everett has been banged up and Jefferson has gotten on the field for 42% of the team's offensive snaps compared to Everett's 38% If Jefferson starts eating into Reynolds' snaps more just as he's already done with targets, a slow increase in production could follow.

The value of the WR3 on this offense was nullified last year by Brandin Cooks' concussion and subsequent ineffectiveness upon return. This year, we're seeing something closer to the Rams of 2018, at least initially. Jefferson is deeper on the fantasy radar for redraft leagues but someone who bears monitoring and should be an instant add should something unfortunate happen to either Kupp or Woods.

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