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Who do draft? Mike Riggall compares ADP of running backs Najee Harris and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to determine which player is a better draft value at RB for 2021.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a second-year running back coming off a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign based on his 2020-ADP while Najee Harris has all the pedigree in the world to enter the NFL as a world-beater in 2021. There's no doubt that both of these guys are the top, young running backs on their respective teams, playing in good offenses. But when it comes to fantasy football, should you draft them this season at their current average draft position (ADP)? If so, which player presents the better value?
Per NFFC data pulled from 12-team leagues, Harris currently has an ADP of 16 while Edwards-Helaire has an ADP of 20. This means you are likely drafting one of these players as your RB1 or RB2 towards the middle of the second round. You need to ask yourself which of these guys is worth that type of draft capital at their ADP.
Now lets dive in a little and take a look at the respective situations for Harris and Edwards-Helaire and figure out if it makes sense to draft these guys and which guy makes sense for you.
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Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire See More Usage in 2021?
In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire came out of the gates on fire, rushing the ball 25 times for 138 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. The following week, Edwards-Helaire carried the ball just 10 times but added six catches, gaining just 70-scoreless yards. Edwards-Helaire played at least 60% of the Chiefs offensive snaps through each of the Chiefs first six games, but starting in Week 7, he eclipsed 60% of the offensive snaps just one more time, in a 33-27 victory over Miami.
While Edwards-Helaire's usage was a little concerning at times in 2020, he wasn't exactly ceding carries to other running backs as Le'Veon Bell had just 63 carries on the season and Darrel Williams had only 39. The Chiefs do operate a pass-heavy offense, throwing on over 60% of their offensive plays, which means Edwards-Helaire needs to get it done in the passing game to come through consistently. While he struggled with pass-protection at times last year, he still led all running backs in targets with 55. If he's able to improve his pass protection he should stay on the field more and see more work in the passing game.
Edwards-Helaire's yards-per-carry was 4.4 in 2020, and of that, an average of 2.1 came after contact. While this puts Edwards-Helaire outside the top-20 at yards-after-contact, it's worth noting that the Chiefs offensive line only blocked 2.3 yards before initial contact which was also outside the top-20 in the league, which means he didn't have the most help. After addressing offensive line in the draft, getting guys back from injury and trading for Orlando Brown Jr., the Chiefs offensive line should be much improved in 2021 and open up better running lanes.
Will Najee Harris be a Star Right Away?
The Steelers ran the ball about 35% of the time in 2020 which is one of the lowest rates in the NFL. The Steelers offensive line went through a major overhaul in 2021 which has some people in the fantasy football community doubting whether Harris will have success running behind it. While there are some serious doubters, the youth movement along the Steelers offensive line looks like it may be rounding into form as recent reports on the unit have been positive.
Even if the offensive line struggles early, the Steelers are a very good, well-rounded football team, which means they will remain competitive in games. As long as the Steelers defense is a force and holds teams to lower point totals, the offense won't be looking to throw on every down to play catchup. Moreover, young offensive linemen tend to be better at run blocking earlier in their careers than pass blocking, which means the Steelers may actually lean on the run more early in the season if they do struggle to protect the quarterback. If the Steelers do end up airing it out, Harris proved he's a capable pass-catcher, snagging 70 balls over his final two seasons in Tuscaloosa, so he will be fine.
It's also worth noting that the Alabama product was able to amass 821 yards-after-contact in 2020 which means he's ready to deal with any issues the Steelers have along the offensive line. This means 56% of his 1,466-rushing yards came after initial contact in 2020. Another positive on Harris is that he saw just 638 carries in college, playing a smaller role in the offense over his first two years, amassing 460 carries over the last two seasons which isn't a ton of work. This means Harris is not entering the league a battered runner like some running backs who enter the NFL with 1,000+ carries of wear and tear already on their bodies.
Should You Draft Harris or Edwards-Helaire at Their ADP?
First, let's take a look at which players have a similar ADP to both Harris and Edwards-Helaire. Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Joe Mixon and Justin Jefferson all have ADPs between 15 and 22, right around where Harris and Edwards-Helaire are being drafted. In my view, the first round of your draft is going to dictate whether you want to take one of these running backs or a stud wide receiver.
If you start your draft by taking Tyreek Hill ninth overall, then you're definitely going to want to snag a running back in the second round before the talent dries up at the position. However, if you draft Jonathan Taylor ninth overall, you need to decide whether you want to lock in a sure-fire WR1 or solidify your running back group by taking Harris or Edwards-Helaire. If you decide to start your draft with Taylor and Harris, then you will likely draft somebody like Robert Woods or CeeDee Lamb in the third as your WR1. If you opt to draft Calvin Ridley or D.K. Metcalf in the second instead of Harris, then you're going to feel pressed to get a running back towards the back-end of the third. The issue with that strategy is if you forego picking Harris or Edwards-Helaire in the second round, there is a massive drop-off at the position, and you may feel pressure to draft David Montgomery, Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs as your RB2, all of which have issues surrounding their role or durability heading into the season.
If you do draft Harris or Edwards-Helaire, you could opt to punt on your RB2 and simply load up at wide receivers while waiting until the fifth or sixth round to draft your RB2. If you started a draft with Tyreek Hill, Najee Harris, Robert Woods, D.J. Moore and then Kareem Hunt, you have a solid starting lineup. Either way you slice it, Harris and Edwards-Helaire are both worth a selection at their current ADP, because you can build a solid roster with them no matter how you start your draft.
Conclusion
So who should we take, Harris or Edwards-Helaire?
Based on what was discussed above, you can't really go wrong drafting either player. When it comes down to it, you need to ask yourself what kind of risk you are willing to accept. Edwards-Helaire has a massive upside because he should play more snaps in 2021 and see an increase in usage while playing behind a revamped offensive line. However, there is a concern regarding his ability to effectively hold up in pass-protection in the NFL given his size at 5'7" and 209 pounds, which means he may lose snaps to Darrel Williams.
Najee Harris, on the other hand, enters the NFL at 23 years-old and is already an established pass-protector. Harris has also proven he's very good as a runner after initial contact and has the size at 6'1" and 230 pounds to hold up and take the pounding associated with a full NFL season. For those reasons, I would opt to take Harris over Edwards-Helaire in 2021. Simply put, Harris has no reason to come off the field for the Steelers, while Edwards-Helaire needs to show us he can handle a larger workload before taking him over a guy without the same concerns. It's worth noting that while Edwards-Helaire's ankle injury isn't a huge concern at this time, if you have another viable option that isn't already banged up, like Harris, then it makes sense to go with Harris.
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