X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump: Kenta Maeda

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Minnesota Twins SP Kenta Maeda in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Will Minor be able to replicate the successful fantasy season he put up in 2019?

Generally speaking, ADP makes sense even if you don't agree with it. For example, this author believes that Kevin Cron would break out in a Pete Alonso manner if Arizona gave him everyday reps, but his path to playing time is questionable even with the recent announcement that NL clubs will have a DH this season. As such, it's understandable why his ADP stands at 581.5 on FantasyPros.

Naturally, there are exceptions to this rule. If you learned that Pitcher X posted a 10-8 record with identical 4.04 ERA and xFIP marks and a 27.1 K% over 153 2/3 IP last year, you would probably assume that he was a fantasy-relevant starter. If you further discovered that he played for a projected division winner and figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the league's geography-based schedule, you might be eager to snap him up for some elusive wins.

Kenta Maeda of the Minnesota Twins is Pitcher X, but his ADP of 172.4 in no way represents his talent level. He strikes out a ton of opposing batters on the strength of two great pitches, has not sustained a significant injury since coming to the United States, and figures to terrorize the weak lineups in both the AL and NL Central divisions. Let's take a deeper look at the value Maeda can provide to fantasy owners in 2020.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Ace-Like Stuff

You need to have great stuff to perform in fantasy, and Maeda has it in his four-pitch mix. His fastball isn't special, clocking in at an average of 92.2 mph in 2019 and generating a solid but not spectacular 7.5 SwStr%. Maeda has excellent command of it though, putting it in the zone 57.5% of the time a season ago. That makes it perfect for setting-up Maeda's twin put-away pitches.

Maeda's slider is one of the best pitches in the game. Its 21.8 SwStr% was nothing short of elite, and batters chased it out of the zone a whopping 41.8% of the time. Maeda can also use it in the zone if need be (44.4 Zone%), and batters slashed just .155/.203/.288 when they managed to put it in play. Notably, the pitch's 47.1 FB% and 38.5 IFFB% produced a ton of harmless pop-ups.

Maeda's change was nearly as good. Its 19.3 SwStr% was slightly lower than his slider and its 30.9 Zone% depends on opposing hitters to chase, but its 47.6% chase rate makes that a perfectly viable strategy. Opposing batters hit .185/.239/.315 against his change in 2019, so it's far from the end of the world if it ends up in play too.

Having two pitches like this is obviously great, but it's even better considering that they complement each other well. Maeda's slider is primarily served to RHB, with a 52.5% usage rate versus just 11.1% against LHB. The reason why is clear: righties posted an xwOBA of just .196 last year against it, while lefties fared much better with a .313 xwOBA. If Maeda's only out pitch was his slider, he would be vulnerable against left-handed batters.

Thankfully, his change has almost the opposite split. It's thrown 40.9% of the time to LHB but only 5.9% against RHB, holding the former to a .262 xwOBA while the latter produced a .330 wOBA in the small sample. Thus, Maeda has a top-tier weapon with which to go after all batters.

Maeda realized that his breaking pitches were better than his heater last year, throwing more changeups (14.6% in 2018, 23.9% last year) and sliders (22.6% to 31.5%) at the expense of his fastball (41.8% to 34%) and cutter (7.3% to 0%). His curve gives hitters a different look, completing an arsenal that should have no problem pitching deep into games as Minnesota's ace.

 

Strong Peripherals

Some fantasy owners might feel that Maeda's .243 BABIP (.280 career) means that his 4.04 ERA won't repeat in 2020, but his Statcast contact quality metrics suggest that he was actually unlucky last season. His .216 xBA against was slightly higher than his actual mark of .202, but he more than gave it back with his .345 xSLG against an actual mark of .371. The result was an expected ERA of 3.26 based on his strikeouts, walks, and contact quality allowed per Baseball Savant's version of the statistic.

"Is that good?" you might be wondering. Yes, it is. The diagram below illustrates the top 10 starters in terms of xERA in 2019, minimum of 500 PAs:

That's a list of the very best pitchers in baseball, the promising young Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda. Does it make sense for anyone on this list to be seen as an afterthought in fantasy?

 

Boundless Opportunity

Some owners might look at Maeda's low innings totals and see a guy who can't work deep into games, but that's actually more on the Dodgers than Maeda. Maeda's contract pays him incentives for meeting innings thresholds, providing the Dodgers will a financial incentive for phantom IL stints or bullpen banishments that Maeda's performance never warranted. Since the Dodgers generally had the division won by August and boasted limitless pitching depth, they could afford to play these types of games.

The Twins are a win-now team whose greatest weakness is likely pitching, so they won't play the same games the Dodgers did. Every game will have a DH, so there's no reason to remove Maeda early for a pinch hitter either. In short, Maeda should finally get the opportunity to be a workhorse that the Dodgers never gave him.

The recently revealed schedule also calls for teams to play all of their games in their specific geographic region to minimize travel. The Twins will play 40 of their 60 contests against their AL Central foes, of which only Cleveland represents a significant challenge to earning a W for Maeda. Meanwhile, the Royals and Tigers both project to be complete disasters. The NL Central consists of four good-not-great teams plus another disaster in Pittsburgh. Twins pitchers have the easiest schedule this year, and Maeda is the best of the bunch.

 

Conclusion

Maeda's value becomes even clearer when you look at the other starters taken in the same price range. Sean Manaea (165.4 ADP) has a substantial injury history that figures to limit how many IP he throws this year, and he can't match Maeda's strikeouts even at his best. Carlos Martinez (168.6) has even more injury questions to the point that he may not start at all. Jake Odorizzi (174.6) lacks Maeda's physical talent, and German Marquez (178) is hurt by calling Coors Field home.

Maeda has great strikeout stuff, effectively controls contact against him, and pitches for a strong team in what is easily the weakest of the three geographic regions. How in the world is he outside the top 100, let alone the top 170?

Verdict: Champ (based on clear SP2 potential despite an SP5 price tag)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Devin Williams

Removed From Closer Role
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Jorge Polanco

Goes Deep Twice On Saturday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hits Four Homers On Saturday
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF