X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump: Kenta Maeda

Generally speaking, ADP makes sense even if you don't agree with it. For example, this author believes that Kevin Cron would break out in a Pete Alonso manner if Arizona gave him everyday reps, but his path to playing time is questionable even with the recent announcement that NL clubs will have a DH this season. As such, it's understandable why his ADP stands at 581.5 on FantasyPros.

Naturally, there are exceptions to this rule. If you learned that Pitcher X posted a 10-8 record with identical 4.04 ERA and xFIP marks and a 27.1 K% over 153 2/3 IP last year, you would probably assume that he was a fantasy-relevant starter. If you further discovered that he played for a projected division winner and figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the league's geography-based schedule, you might be eager to snap him up for some elusive wins.

Kenta Maeda of the Minnesota Twins is Pitcher X, but his ADP of 172.4 in no way represents his talent level. He strikes out a ton of opposing batters on the strength of two great pitches, has not sustained a significant injury since coming to the United States, and figures to terrorize the weak lineups in both the AL and NL Central divisions. Let's take a deeper look at the value Maeda can provide to fantasy owners in 2020.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Ace-Like Stuff

You need to have great stuff to perform in fantasy, and Maeda has it in his four-pitch mix. His fastball isn't special, clocking in at an average of 92.2 mph in 2019 and generating a solid but not spectacular 7.5 SwStr%. Maeda has excellent command of it though, putting it in the zone 57.5% of the time a season ago. That makes it perfect for setting-up Maeda's twin put-away pitches.

Maeda's slider is one of the best pitches in the game. Its 21.8 SwStr% was nothing short of elite, and batters chased it out of the zone a whopping 41.8% of the time. Maeda can also use it in the zone if need be (44.4 Zone%), and batters slashed just .155/.203/.288 when they managed to put it in play. Notably, the pitch's 47.1 FB% and 38.5 IFFB% produced a ton of harmless pop-ups.

Maeda's change was nearly as good. Its 19.3 SwStr% was slightly lower than his slider and its 30.9 Zone% depends on opposing hitters to chase, but its 47.6% chase rate makes that a perfectly viable strategy. Opposing batters hit .185/.239/.315 against his change in 2019, so it's far from the end of the world if it ends up in play too.

Having two pitches like this is obviously great, but it's even better considering that they complement each other well. Maeda's slider is primarily served to RHB, with a 52.5% usage rate versus just 11.1% against LHB. The reason why is clear: righties posted an xwOBA of just .196 last year against it, while lefties fared much better with a .313 xwOBA. If Maeda's only out pitch was his slider, he would be vulnerable against left-handed batters.

Thankfully, his change has almost the opposite split. It's thrown 40.9% of the time to LHB but only 5.9% against RHB, holding the former to a .262 xwOBA while the latter produced a .330 wOBA in the small sample. Thus, Maeda has a top-tier weapon with which to go after all batters.

Maeda realized that his breaking pitches were better than his heater last year, throwing more changeups (14.6% in 2018, 23.9% last year) and sliders (22.6% to 31.5%) at the expense of his fastball (41.8% to 34%) and cutter (7.3% to 0%). His curve gives hitters a different look, completing an arsenal that should have no problem pitching deep into games as Minnesota's ace.

 

Strong Peripherals

Some fantasy owners might feel that Maeda's .243 BABIP (.280 career) means that his 4.04 ERA won't repeat in 2020, but his Statcast contact quality metrics suggest that he was actually unlucky last season. His .216 xBA against was slightly higher than his actual mark of .202, but he more than gave it back with his .345 xSLG against an actual mark of .371. The result was an expected ERA of 3.26 based on his strikeouts, walks, and contact quality allowed per Baseball Savant's version of the statistic.

"Is that good?" you might be wondering. Yes, it is. The diagram below illustrates the top 10 starters in terms of xERA in 2019, minimum of 500 PAs:

That's a list of the very best pitchers in baseball, the promising young Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda. Does it make sense for anyone on this list to be seen as an afterthought in fantasy?

 

Boundless Opportunity

Some owners might look at Maeda's low innings totals and see a guy who can't work deep into games, but that's actually more on the Dodgers than Maeda. Maeda's contract pays him incentives for meeting innings thresholds, providing the Dodgers will a financial incentive for phantom IL stints or bullpen banishments that Maeda's performance never warranted. Since the Dodgers generally had the division won by August and boasted limitless pitching depth, they could afford to play these types of games.

The Twins are a win-now team whose greatest weakness is likely pitching, so they won't play the same games the Dodgers did. Every game will have a DH, so there's no reason to remove Maeda early for a pinch hitter either. In short, Maeda should finally get the opportunity to be a workhorse that the Dodgers never gave him.

The recently revealed schedule also calls for teams to play all of their games in their specific geographic region to minimize travel. The Twins will play 40 of their 60 contests against their AL Central foes, of which only Cleveland represents a significant challenge to earning a W for Maeda. Meanwhile, the Royals and Tigers both project to be complete disasters. The NL Central consists of four good-not-great teams plus another disaster in Pittsburgh. Twins pitchers have the easiest schedule this year, and Maeda is the best of the bunch.

 

Conclusion

Maeda's value becomes even clearer when you look at the other starters taken in the same price range. Sean Manaea (165.4 ADP) has a substantial injury history that figures to limit how many IP he throws this year, and he can't match Maeda's strikeouts even at his best. Carlos Martinez (168.6) has even more injury questions to the point that he may not start at all. Jake Odorizzi (174.6) lacks Maeda's physical talent, and German Marquez (178) is hurt by calling Coors Field home.

Maeda has great strikeout stuff, effectively controls contact against him, and pitches for a strong team in what is easily the weakest of the three geographic regions. How in the world is he outside the top 100, let alone the top 170?

Verdict: Champ (based on clear SP2 potential despite an SP5 price tag)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Royce Lewis19 mins ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer2 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw2 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler2 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager2 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz2 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Alex Caruso2 hours ago

Ayo Dosunmu Probable Friday
Darius Garland2 hours ago

Probable Against 76ers
Donovan Mitchell3 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable
Duncan Robinson4 hours ago

Heat Rule Out Duncan Robinson Friday
Bryan Reynolds4 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Probable Against Portland
Onyeka Okongwu5 hours ago

Remains Out Thursday
Dejounte Murray5 hours ago

Questionable With Back Soreness
Jordan Romano6 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Gerrit Cole6 hours ago

Yankees Put Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
Elly De La Cruz6 hours ago

Batting In Six-Hole On Opening Day
Anthony Rendon6 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff On Opening Day
Wander Franco6 hours ago

Placed On Administrative Leave
Aaron Ekblad7 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov7 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto7 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin7 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard7 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins7 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist7 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear7 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Keita Bates-Diop8 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season
Dyson Daniels8 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday But Nearing Return
LaMelo Ball8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Rest Of 2023-24
Jose Alvarado8 hours ago

Questionable To Face Milwaukee
Jaden Springer8 hours ago

Considered Questionable
Xavier Tillman8 hours ago

Sr. Questionable Thursday
Gabe Vincent8 hours ago

Expected To Return To Action On Sunday
Al Horford20 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report
Derrick White20 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
TJ Friedl21 hours ago

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Aaron Gordon21 hours ago

Cleared To Face Phoenix
Michael Porter21 hours ago

Jr. Good To Go Wednesday
Nikola Jokic21 hours ago

Playing Against Phoenix
Jackson Chourio21 hours ago

Will Start In Right Field Friday
Jrue Holiday21 hours ago

Might Return On Thursday
Khris Middleton21 hours ago

Expected To Play On Thursday Night
Eduardo Rodriguez22 hours ago

Starts Throwing Program
Garrett Mitchell23 hours ago

Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
Chad Green23 hours ago

To Lead Closer Committee In Toronto?
Erik Swanson23 hours ago

Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson Officially Heading To Injured List
Kevin Gausman23 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Sunday Or Monday
Gleyber Torres1 day ago

Will Bat Leadoff On Opening Day
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Max Scherzer1 day ago

Making Solid Progress
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim1 day ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA1 day ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry1 day ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan1 day ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg1 day ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn1 day ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby1 day ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord1 day ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala1 day ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler1 day ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder1 day ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad2 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson2 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron3 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala4 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron4 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More