Yahoo Undervalued and Overvalued Picks - Fantasy Baseball ADP Advantages for Drafts

March 18, 2024

Pranav's Yahoo fantasy baseball undervalued and overvalued picks for 2024 drafts on Yahoo. These players are cheaper or more expensive on Yahoo compared to ADPs.

Welcome RotoBallers to our Yahoo fantasy baseball article about undervalued and overvalued players to draft in Yahoo leagues, based on their ADP and ranking. Average Draft Position (ADP) is often the guiding light for fantasy baseball draft strategy. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at Yahoo's respective ADP data.

Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower -- being selected earlier or later -- on Yahoo compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't mean you should avoid them, and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal. However, this will help you stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data.

What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect -- a cognitive bias where there's an overreliance on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). We'll look at specific players who are not of the value their ADP in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues indicates.

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Cheap Early-Round Picks on Yahoo

George Kirby (SP, SEA) | RotoBaller Rank: 34

While he may lack the traditional swing-and-miss stuff, George Kirby is one of the league's best young pitching talents.

The 26-year-old is coming off an incredible sophomore season where he held a 3.35 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP through 31 starts. Working with an elite six-pitch arsenal, Kirby possesses top-of-the-line command, with a league-leading 2.5% walk rate and 110 Location+ grade. While you'd want the 22.7% strikeout rate to jump before spending a top-20 pick on him, his generational command makes a 49 ADP difficult to justify.

Logan Gilbert (SP, SEA) | RotoBaller Rank: 68

Yahoo fantasy baseball players must not think too highly of the Seattle Mariners' pitching factory, as Logan Gilbert can be found at pick 79. In his third season, he held a 3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, and 24.5% strikeout rate through a career-high 190 2/3 innings. Though he may not be operating at George Kirby's level, his 102 Location+ grade and 4.7% walk rate reflect his elite command. Gilbert is a talent you can bank on, especially at such a relatively cheap ADP.

Logan Gilbert's 3Ks in the 6th.

8th, 9th and 10th Ks. pic.twitter.com/fanl2OdMUR

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 9, 2023

Jesus Luzardo (SP, MIA) | RotoBaller Rank: 75

Jesus Luzardo rounded into form in his first full season in 2023 with a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate through 178 2/3 innings. ATC projects only slight regression in 2024, with a 3.78 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate through 168 innings. The 26-year-old's only worry is injury history, but that risk dissipates when Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues leave him available at pick 94.

Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) | RotoBaller Rank: 85

The hype for Wyatt Langford grows stronger by the hour, but Yahoo fantasy leagues don't seem as bullish on the prospect as other platforms do.

Langford has yet to disappoint his supporters, slaughtering baseballs at every division of pro baseball he's encountered. The 22-year-old quickly scaled the minors in 2023, ending the season with Triple-A Round Rock having slashed .360/.480/.677 with 10 home runs, 30 RBI, 32 runs, and 12 stolen bases through 44 games in the minors.

He's made quick work of MLB pitchers during spring training, slashing .361/.442/.806 with five home runs, 14 RBI, and 11 runs through 13 games. At this point, Langford has forced his way onto the major-league roster, where his elite power and speed should provide immense fantasy value. A talent like his won't be available often at a 209 ADP.

Wyatt Langford clobbers his first grand slam as a pro 💪

MLB's No. 6 overall prospect ups his @Rangers Cactus League slash line to .371/.452/.829: pic.twitter.com/LI2yK2I6oz

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 15, 2024

Other Cheap Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Picks

C: Willson Contreras (Yahoo ADP: 166; Average ADP: 146)
1B: Vinnie Pasquantino (Yahoo ADP: 169; Average ADP: 155.5)
2B: Ketel Marte (Yahoo ADP: 120; Average ADP: 93)
3B: Junior Caminero (Yahoo ADP: 277; Average ADP: 207)
SS: Jackson Holliday (Yahoo ADP: 215; Average ADP: 175.75)
OF1: Bryan Reynolds (Yahoo ADP: 100; Average ADP: 79.5)
OF2: Jarren Duran (Yahoo ADP: 268, Average ADP: 183.5)
OF3: Steven Kwan (Yahoo ADP: 216; Average ADP: 171)
OF4: Brandon Nimmo (Yahoo ADP: 130; Average ADP: 51.25)
SP1: Cole Ragans (Yahoo ADP: 109; Average ADP: 97.225)
SP2: Justin Steele (Yahoo ADP: 101; Average ADP: 88)
SP3: Merrill Kelly (Yahoo ADP: 149; Average ADP: 126)
RP1: Andres Munoz (Yahoo ADP: 126; Average ADP: 111.75)
RP2: Tanner Scott (Yahoo ADP: 155: Average ADP: 133)

Expensive Early-Round Picks on Yahoo

James Outman (OF, LAD) | RotoBaller Rank: 180

It was an impressive rookie year for outfielder James Outman, with a .248/.353/.437 line, 23 home runs, 70 RBI, 86 runs, and 16 stolen bases through 151 games. However, with a .325 xwOBA in 2023 (compared to a .344 wOBA) and a disturbing 31.9% strikeout rate, ATC's projection of a tepid .233/.327/.414 line should be enough to avoid him at his egregious 152 ADP in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues.

Walker Buehler (SP, LAD) | RotoBaller Rank: 193

Walker Buehler was excellent in his last full season in 2021, with a 2.47 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate through 207 2/3 innings. However, 2024 is a whole new paradigm for the 29-year-old.

He was amidst the worst season of his career in 2022, with a 4.02 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 21.2% strikeout rate through 12 starts; then his season would be cut short as he would need Tommy John surgery. Having not thrown a pitch since June 10, 2022, the right-handed pitcher is not worth considering at his 128 ADP in Yahoo leagues.

Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS) | RotoBaller Rank: 148

We saw glimpses of greatness from Masataka Yoshida in 2023, but it was ultimately a weak showing in the NPB superstar's first season. Through 140 games, the 30-year-old slashed .289/.338/.445 with 15 home runs, 72 RBI, 71 runs, and eight stolen bases. He looked especially bad in the last two months of the season, slashing .257/.276/.371 with a startlingly low 2.8% walk rate in his last 47 games.

The late-season stretch seems to be the worst of it, especially considering his move to the Designated Hitter spot this season. ATC projections aren't too harsh on him either, as he's projected for a solid .347 wOBA with 16 home runs, 73 RBI, and 71 runs this season. However, Yoshida's exhibited floor and limited physical ceiling mean you should wait a round, if not more, in Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues.

Other Expensive Yahoo Fantasy Baseball Picks

C: Danny Jansen (Yahoo ADP: 232; Average ADP: 320.75)
1B: DJ LeMahieu (Yahoo ADP: 232; Average ADP: 331.5)
2B: Jonathan India (Yahoo ADP: 204.2; Average ADP: 266)
3B: Josh Jung (Yahoo ADP: 99; Average ADP: 134)
SS: Anthony Volpe (Yahoo ADP: 127; Average ADP: 147)
OF: Kerry Carpenter (Yahoo ADP: 184.5; Average ADP: 234.75)
OF2: Tyler O'Neill (Yahoo ADP: 213; Average ADP: 254)
OF3: Giancarlo Stanton (Yahoo ADP: 218; Average ADP: 254.25)
OF4: TJ Friedl (Yahoo ADP: 139.5; Average ADP: 161.75)
SP1: Jacob deGrom (Yahoo ADP: 212.4; Average ADP: 302.5)
SP2: Nick Lodolo (Yahoo ADP: 214.5; Average ADP: 265.75)
SP3: Brandon Pfaadt (Yahoo ADP: 192; Average ADP: 232.25)
RP1: Aroldis Chapman (Yahoo ADP: 231; Average ADP: 339)
RP2: Hunter Harvey (Yahoo ADP: 223; Average ADP: 318.75)

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