RADIO
A weekend of NASCAR racing at Las Vegas concludes on Sunday with the Pennzoil 400.
Last week at Fontana, some surprising names ran up front, with drivers like Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones contending for the win. But by the end of the day, it was defending champion Kyle Larson winding up atop the leaderboard.
Below are some drivers to consider for DFS purposes this week. If you have any questions or want to talk NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Larson
Starts 2nd - DraftKings $11,300 | FanDuel $14,000
Larson comes with plenty of upside, but also plenty of downside. He needs to essentially dominate this race to pay off at this salary, but...well, I'll take that risk.
Let's work backwards through the 1.5-mile tracks at the end of last year:
- Kansas: Larson led 130 laps and won
- Texas: Larson led 256 laps and won
- Vegas: Larson led 95 and finished 10th
- Atlanta: Larson led zero laps and finished 18th.
So, Atlanta, which was the 21st race last season, was the last time he wasn't the best car at a 1.5 miler? And before that, he won Charlotte while leading 327 laps, plus led 132 laps at Kansas before finishing 19th. And in the first Vegas race last year, he led 103 laps and won.
Basically, bet on Kyle Larson to be very, very good on Sunday.
Kyle Busch
Starts 37th - DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $12,000
CHALK ALERT.
Kyle Busch starts 37th. He will have top five speed on Sunday. The place differential points here are enormous.
Of course, I don't get paid to just say "hey, play this guy." Busch isn't just a slam-dunk play because of the place differential upside. He's also good at Vegas.
Busch has nine top fives here, including third-place finishes in both races last year. He hasn't won here in Cup since 2009, but he usually runs in the top 10, and even when things don't go so well for him, he winds up with a solid showing, with just two DNFs ever here.
Kurt Busch
Starts 31st - DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,200
Like his brother Kyle, Kurt Busch starts deep in the field.
And also like his brother, that means a lot of potential place differential points available for Busch.
Now, Kurt doesn't have the track record at Vegas of his brother. In 24 starts, he only has seven top 10s, but two of those have come in the past three races here, including a win in 2020. After a lot of bad luck at this track, Busch should be in position to have a solid run on Sunday, which will be nice for your fantasy lineup.
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Erik Jones
Starts 23rd - DraftKings $7,300 | FanDuel $8,500
After two races, Erik Jones is sixth in points and already has more top five finishes than he had in 2021. Petty GMS Racing has gotten a lot better since GMS bought into the team this offseason and while both of its cars look solid, Jones definitely looks the best.
Something that I think people forgot after last season is that Erik Jones is a really good driver. He had nine top fives in 2020 when he was driving for Gibbs, but last year he saw a big drop in his numbers because he joined a struggling Petty team. If Petty really is back to being competitive due to the new car and the new money the team has, then Jones is going to be a top 10 threat most weeks. Getting a driver with that upside from the 23rd starting spot seems like a good move for fantasy.
(Of course, we're working on a two-race sample here. We could be very wrong about this team and Jones could just be a mediocre fantasy play. We'll see, I suppose.)
In terms of this race, Jones was the 13th-fastest in practice.
Justin Haley
Starts 28th - DraftKings $6,100 | FanDuel $4,000
Haley has struggled this weekend relative to teammate Daniel Hemric. Haley was 22nd in practice while Hemric was ninth. In qualifying, he was 28th while Hemric was 16th.
But I'm encouraged by the speed of the other Kaulig car and believe this car will figure it out on Sunday. Haley was 23rd in both of the races so far this season, but I think this team was more upside than that. His average running position was 20th last week and he made more green flag passes than he had times he was passed. He also ran in the top 15 for 19% of the race. There's upside here.
Ty Dillon
Starts 32nd - DraftKings $5,600 | FanDuel $4,500
While teammate Erik Jones has been competitive all season, fellow Petty GMS driver Ty Dillon hasn't necessarily had the same kind of speed. But he's driving solid races, finishing 11th at Daytona and 17th at Fontana.
Dillon starts 32nd, offering a good bit of place differential upside for this team. The new generation of car has really evened some things out and a driver like Ty Dillon is going to be able to deliver a lot of results in the 11-20 range this year. That'll make him a DFS target for me any time he starts around this spot.
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