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Week 11 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. First, we saw the Colts head into Buffalo and lay the smackdown on the favorite Bills. Then, the Texans went into Tennessee and shocked many as they beat the Titans. Finally, the Packers and Vikings had an incredible shootout that the Vikings won on a last-second field goal. There was a lot of solid fantasy football in Week 11, along with more lousy football like the Cowboys and Chiefs. Navigating the minefield is the weekly challenge we face, and we will continue to do that week in and week out in these articles.
For Week 12, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up for running backs with the top backs all priced above $7500 on DK and above $8000 on FD. They are worth the price in cash, and most will target at least one, if not two, of these backs, meaning value will be needed elsewhere. Most will also look for at least one of the top wide receivers to pair with some value. There are only 10-games on this slate, with the 3-game Thanksgiving slate taking two games, so that picking will be more limited than usual. Lastly, injuries have been running rampant, so keep a close eye on all the news as the value can open up quickly and has been in recent weeks.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays - Week 12 Cash Games
Cam Newton, CAR at MIA | DK: $5,600, FD: $8,000
I wrote up Cam last week, and after his solid performance, we can say he is back. He was highly efficient, going 21-27 with two touchdowns and ten carries for 46 yards and another touchdown. Sure three touchdowns are asking a lot, but the upside he brings with his legs, especially in cash games, is HUGE.
This week Cam takes on the Dolphins in South Beach. A Dolphins defense ranks 27 on the season versus opposing quarterbacks and 20th over the last four weeks. Over the previous four games, they are allowing an average of 250+ passing yards, 30 rushing yards, over a touchdown, and 18+ fantasy points per game. Cam's legs could easily make that a 20+ point fantasy week. Last week, we saw Joe Flacco throw it over to Elijah Moore, and Cam could easily do that with DJ Moore. Cam should be locked into cash lineups this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,500
Jimmy G is usually tough to roster in cash games, but his price and matchup make him intriguing this week. He is extremely cheap, especially on FD this week, and is coming off some solid recent performances. Jimmy G has thrown at least two touchdowns in three straight games while putting up 15+ fantasy points in four consecutive games. To make things better, he gets a great matchup versus the Vikings at home this week.
He takes on a Vikings' defense that ranks 30 on the season versus quarterbacks and 31st over the last four games. On average, they are allowing 292 passing yards per game over the previous four games to go with two passing touchdowns per game and over 25 fantasy points per game. So even if Jimmy G struggles a bit, 20 points should be in play versus this defense. To make matters even better, the Niners are three-point favorites with a 25.5 point implied team total. So there should be points aplenty, and Jimmy G should have fun throwing to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle on Sunday.
Running Back DFS Value Plays - Week 12 Cash Games
AJ Dillon, GB vs. LAR | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900
Last week many of us were all over Dillon in cash, and he got home for us with 11 carries with six receptions for 97 yards. Unfortunately, he did not find the end zone yet had a strong fantasy week nonetheless. Dillon had 58% of the RB carries and was third on the team on targets, only Devante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That should not change this week with Aaron Jones out yet again.
Sure Dillon may have a tougher matchup this week versus the Rams compared to last week versus the Vikings, but he gets a price deduction as well as an outstanding workload that we love in cash. He faces a Rams defense that ranks 20th on the season versus opposing backs and allows well over 20 fantasy points per game to backs. The Packers are one-point favorites with an implied team total of 24.5, meaning the game should be tight, and the Packers should be looking to rely on their workload back. Again, Dillon brings outstanding cash game value this week. Jones has practiced all week; if he plays, then Dillon is GPP only.
Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. PHI | DK: $6,300 FD: $7,500
Barkley returned to action last week for the first time since Week 5 and looked good, not great. I will credit the not-great part to the poor play calling, and hopefully, that is now changed heading into Week 12 with Jason Garrett being fired. However, even with a poor play calling, Barkley still had 12 touches, six being receptions. We should see his carries get over ten this week with a healthy workload in the passing game once again. Once he returns to the workload we expect for Saquon; his price will skyrocket as we know what he can do with the touches.
Besides the likely workload increase, Barkley gets a great matchup versus the Eagles. The Eagles defense ranks 24th on the season versus opposing backs. They allow 100+ rushing yards per game on average, nearly a touchdown, and over 20 fantasy points per game. Barkley brings so much upside to your DFS lineups, as well as an excellent cash game floor. Enjoy the discount while you can in this very favorable matchup.
James Robinson, JAX vs. ATL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,600
Robinson has been back from injury for a few weeks and has asserted himself as the lead back once again. He is coming off a 12 carry week suitable for 75% of the team's carries. The game flow took the Jags out of running the ball early, which weekend his upside last week, but that should not be the case this week. Even with the weird game flows for such a bad Jags team, Robinson has still been a productive fantasy back, posting double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Cash game floor through the roof and gets a great matchup versus the Falcons.
Robinson will look to feast on this Falcons defense, a defense that ranks 27th over the last four weeks versus opposing backs. They allow an average of 118 yards rushing, nearly seven receptions, a touchdown, and 30 fantasy points per game. Running backs are feasting on the Falcons, and Robinson should be in store for a massive week. Let's throw in the fact the Jags are only one-point underdogs with a 23 point implied team total, and Robinson should have a solid workload and find his way to another double-digit fantasy week.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays - Week 12 Cash Games
Corey Davis, NYJ at HOU | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100
It's always tough to trust the Jets when it comes to cash games, but this week sets up for an excellent week in the Jets' passing game. First, they get an insanely favorable matchup versus the Texans. A Texans defense that ranks 31st over the last four games versus wide receivers. They allow an average of 1.5 touchdowns per game versus opposing wide receivers and over 45 fantasy points spread out amongst receivers.
Now insert the receivers, and I will take Davis out of the mix between Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder. Both are solid options, and if you would like to go that way, it is fine, but I like Davis for a few reasons. Davis has seen five or more targets in every game this season and seven or more targets in six of eight games. Davis has also caught four or more balls in six of eight games. He brings an outstanding floor to the game and gets Zach Wilson back this week, which could bode well as Davis and Wilson had quite the report earlier this season. I like Moore a lot but more for tournaments while Davis brings the cash floor I am looking for this week. Good luck with any Jets, ever.
Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX vs. ATL | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,600
Another risky cash play, but the workload should be there this week for Laviska. With the injury to Jamal Agnew, Laviska should slide into a more significant workload. Last week Laviska saw five targets and caught all five, and that was a week after seeing eight targets. He did not receive a carry last week but had at least one carry in three straight games prior. The time is now for Laviska to shine, and if he does not, it will be another massive strike against Urban Meyer's coaching ability. Oh, and he faces the horrible Falcons defense this weekend which does not hurt either.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,300
Is it finally Aiyuk season? It appears so as Aiyuk has seen seven or more targets in three of the last four weeks and scored double-digit fantasy points in each of those three games. He finally seems healthy and utilized like he was last season when he was a weekly lock and load in fantasy. It also helps that Aiyuk faces the Vikings this week as they have been torched by the passing game this season.
They rank 31st on the season versus opposing receivers and rank dead last over the last four weeks. Over the previous four weeks, they are allowing an average of 50+ fantasy points to opposing receivers, which should not change this week. The Niners' offense looks relatively healthy of late, showing that their offense has been clicking. They are also three-point favorites this week against the Vikings with a 25.5 point implied team total. It's time to be comfortable rostering Aiyuk yet again.
Tight End DFS Value Plays - Week 12 Cash Games
Anthony Firkser, TEN at NE | DK: $2,700, FD: $4,800
The tight end position does not have the usual value locks this week, but we do have a few we can look into. First, we have Firsker taking on the Patriots. Last week he saw seven targets, made five catches, and even found the end zone on his way to a solid value week. Second, Firkser did see that workload with Geoff Swaim out with a concussion, so keep an eye on that news as his workload could hurt if Swaim is back. Also, it would make Swaim quite intriguing as well. Lastly, the Titans' passing game is ravaged with injuries, so Ryan Tannehill will need all the weapons he can find, meaning Firkser could be in line for another 5+ target week and fantasy value.
Josiah Deguara, GB vs. LAR | DK: $2,600, FD: $4,900
Deguara is strictly "pray he finds the end zone" play at tight end. He has seen two or three targets in four straight games and last week found the end zone for the first time, giving him his first double-digit fantasy points week. The plus side this week is a matchup versus the Rams. A Rams defense that ranks 28th versus tight ends over the last four weeks. They are allowing nearly 60 receiving yards on average, almost a touchdown per game, and over 15 fantasy points per game versus tight ends over the last four weeks. Deguara is dirt cheap and can run into some fantasy relevance this week if looking to punt.
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