Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 5

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 3. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! Week 4 was a huge one for this article! We had at least one player from each highlighted position finish inside the top-five DK point scorers at their respective position. I hope you guys were able to take advantage of the recommendations. Unfortunately, I wasn't. Not fully anyway, as I failed to see the Tyreek Hill blowup game coming and was left with multiple rosters that had some really great pieces, but also some dead spots. On to Week 5...

Ah yes...Week 5. As we progress through the NFL season, DraftKings pricing continues to evolve, making roster construction a little tougher each week. In addition to the tighter nature of the salary scale, we also don't have as many high-octane game environments available on the Week 5 slate and, as a result, few "obvious" spots to target from a DFS perspective. Yep, the new has officially worn off and we must now prepare to grind things out. The good news is if you are reading this article - or any of the other great content available here RotoBaller - you already have a leg up on the large majority of your DFS competition! Remember, everyone is playing with the same salary and choosing from the same player pool, but our research, preparation, and mindset of building tournament-winning lineups will give us a significant edge in the long run.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 5. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 5 Picks

Jalen Hurts - PHI @ CAR ($7,000)

We could probably have a spirited debate about whether or not Jalen Hurts is a legitimately good NFL quarterback at this point, but no such arguments can be had regarding his excellence as a DFS producer. Hurts has frankly been a fantasy revelation since taking the helm for the Eagles late last year. The second-year man is putting together remarkably consistent performances this season and heads into Week 5 on the heels of a 31.2 DK point performance against the Kansas City Chiefs.

We've talked in this article before about the type of DFS floor Hurts' rushing ability brings to the table and he's accounting for just over seven DK points per game this year on the ground alone. The Philly QB has also been demonstrating the ability to raise his DFS ceiling by getting it done through the air, throwing for 300+ yards and two TDs in each of the Eagles' last two games. Hurts has now crossed 300-yards passing in four of the seven full games he's played in his young career. This week's matchup against the Panthers isn't ideal on paper, but Carolina had faced the Jets, Saints, and Texans prior to allowing Dak Prescott to throw for 4 TDs last week.

Trevor Lawrence - TEN @ JAX ($5,800)

I expect Trevor Lawrence to go overlooked for a couple of reasons this week...lots of folks will be concerned about the entire Urban Meyer situation that's going on in Jacksonville right now and will cross Jags players off their list as a result. I also look for Niners QB Trey Lance to be an extremely popular option at $5.7k - which is $100 less than Lawrence. The idea of pivoting to the Jacksonville QB in GPPs is intriguing, as his advanced metrics indicate a large game is looming for the rookie. The Clemson product stands fourth in the NFL in aDOT at 9.39 yards and fifth in the league in total Air Yards with 1,316. He draws a matchup against a Tennessee defensive unit that is struggling to say the least. The Titans rank near the bottom of the NFL in almost every major pass defense metric. Tennessee stands 25th in overall Pass Defense DVOA and 26th in yards allowed per attempt (8.38) to opposing quarterbacks.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

On a slate with no Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson; Kyler Murray stands out as the true alpha at the position and is the QB with the highest raw ceiling on the board. Can Sam Darnold keep it going? With CMC appearing doubtful, Darnold should once again take control of the Carolina offense and is averaging 32.4 DK points over the two games CMC has missed. Darnold and D.J. Moore are obvious stacking partners. Keep an eye on Joe Mixon's status, as his potential absence would almost force the suddenly conservative Bengals to allow the excellent Joe Burrow to throw the ball. If Mixon is out, my interest in Burrow would skyrocket. Daniel Jones continues to impress and dropped a 30-ball on the Saints in Week 4. He now catches a matchup against a Dallas defense that's allowed the third-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position this season. Trey Lance is officially set to get his first NFL start and there is a very wide range of possible DFS outcomes. His rushing ability seems to bring a solid DFS floor for him at this price point, but his high projected ownership also makes him a fade candidate and I'll likely be underweight on the rookie in GPP formats.
 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 5 Picks

Ezekiel Elliott - NYG @ DAL ($7,000)

It appears the rumors of Zeke's demise were greatly exaggerated. Many had the Cowboys star running back halfway on the scrap heap after an underwhelming performance in the season opener against Tampa Bay that saw him tote the rock just 11 times for only 33 yards. Things have steadily improved since, with Elliott's usage and production increasing each week. His best outing of the year was also his most recent, as he bulldozed the Carolina Panthers for 143 and a score on 20 carries in Week 4. He now draws a pristine matchup against the division-rival Giants. New York stands 26th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA and is allowing 4.67 yards per carry to opposing running backs...the eighth-most in the league.

Leonard Fournette - MIA @ TB ($5,200)

With so much attention focused on the greatness of Tom Brady and the explosiveness of this Bucs passing attack, it is easy to overlook what's going on in the Tampa Bay backfield. Over the first month of the season, Leonard Fournette has quietly solidified his position as the top dog in a backfield that we feared might be overcrowded. The pecking order has become clear, with Fournette garnering just over 58% of the offensive snap share this season, while Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard have split the remaining snaps fairly evenly between them. Tampa Bay enters Week 5 as a heavy 10-point favorite over the Dolphins and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Fournette eclipse his average touch count of 14.8 per game, as we can expect the Bucs to lean on the run while leading. As for the matchup...it's a terrific one. Miami has hemorrhaged DK points to opposing RBs this season and stands 30th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the position.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Week 5 presents us with perhaps the most available value - or potentially available value - we've seen at the RB position this year, although many options will force us to keep an eye on injury news until kickoff. Alexander Mattison would become the best play on the slate if a questionable Dalvin Cook were to be ruled out against the Lions. Chicago's Damien Williams has been practicing in full and will inherit David Montgomery's workload in this run-heavy Bears offense. San Fran's Eli Mitchell is set to return to action and will likely lead a Niners backfield that was underwhelming in his absence over the last few weeks. If you're spending up this week, Tennessee's Derrick Henry is the obvious go-to back. Workhorses like Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, & Najee Harris all face tough matchups but remain very viable options in GPPs.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 5 Picks

D.J. Moore - PHI @ CAR ($7,500)

While Christian McCaffrey's recent absence might have sent D.J. Moore into the stratosphere, the still-just-24-year-old Moore appeared to be on a trajectory toward stardom from the get-go this season. The Panthers alpha receiver had been targeted 19 times over Carolina's first two games with CMC in the lineup and he's been targeted 24 times in the almost two full games that CMC has missed. I say all that to say that McCaffrey has surprisingly been practicing in a limited fashion this week and looks as though he has a chance to play against the Philadelphia Eagles. Don't let that distract you from Moore, a receiver that heads into a matchup against an Eagles secondary that allowed Tyreek Hill to drop a 50-burger on them last week. Moore's usage and production are elite by any measure, he ranks near the top of the NFL in total targets (43), team target share (30.5%), Air Yards (437).

Laviska Shenault Jr. - TEN @ JAX ($4,800) 

Many were high on Shenault heading into the season, but the way Jacksonville utilized him early this year has frustrated fantasy owners and removed him from the DFS conversation. However, with Jags receiver D.J. Chark now done for the year, Shenault's chance of being an impact player might just be restored. His meager season aDOT of 4.91 almost tripled after Chark was carted off against the Bengals, as Shenault ended the Week 4 matchup with an aDOT of 13.57 for the game. The change in usage resulted in an expanded downfield role and his highest yardage production of the season - 99 receiving yards on six catches. We can expect Shenault's role in this Jags passing attack to remain prominent this week against a horrible Tennessee Titans secondary that has relinquished the most receiving yards and TDs in the NFL to the WR position this season.

Kadarius Toney - NYG @ DAL ($4,000)

Tossing in a little bonus selection here at the WR position, as this one will depend on the injury status of the banged-up Giants receiving duo of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Both were forced to missed last week's clash with the Saints, which afforded electric rookie, Kadarius Toney, his first real opportunity of the season. Toney is a keg of dynamite with 4.38 speed that New York drafted with the 20th pick of the 2021 draft out of the University of Florida. He battled a hamstring injury throughout training camp which placed him at the bottom of the depth chart. Toney finally gave us a glimpse of his talent when forced into duty last week against the Saints, grabbing six of nine targets for 78 yards. His DFS viability for Week 5 will rest on the availability of Shepard and Slayton, but if both are unable to go I won't hesitate to grab some Toney exposure in a juicy matchup against Dallas.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Toney is a full go with Slayton & Shepard both ruled out for the Giants. There's no shortage of options at the WR position this week. At the top of the board, Davante Adams is always in consideration due to his elite combination of volume and talent. Justin Jefferson narrowly missed making this week's main writeup and is in a true smash spot against a Lions secondary that is allowing the most yards per target in the NFL. Nobody is playing DeAndre Hopkins this week. His recent production hasn't matched his price point, but I'm interested in GPPs. The $7k range is rounded out with players that all possess extremely high ceilings and low projected ownership in Terry McLaurin & Mike Williams. San Fran's Deebo Samuel will draw some ownership but stands out as the true centerpiece of this Niners passing attack. Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson has target counts of 13/12/10 in his three healthy games this season. A.J. Brown is set to return from a hamstring injury...with no Julio Jones...against the Jaguars. Some nice stacking opportunities with Bucs, Bengals, Cowboys, and Jags. Detroit's Kalif Raymond has popped up to garner 16 total targets over the Lions' last two. The WFT has lots of banged-up pass catchers and Curtis Samuel remains priced at just $3k. He played limited snaps in his season debut last week but was targeted four times and Washington may have no choice but to increase his workload in Week 5.
 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 5 Picks

George Kittle - SF @ ARI ($5,600) *KITTLE IS NOW LISTED AS DOUBTFUL*

Lots of signs that point to "NO" with George Kittle this week...a nagging calf issue, unknown QB situation, and difficult matchup being the most prominent. Despite those negatives, I'm willing to bet on Kittle's talent, upside, and increasing workload. The Niners star led all tight ends in both targets (11) and Air Yards (92) in Week 4 and he's now been targeted 20 times over San Fran's last two contests. Darren Waller is certainly a rock-solid option, but I'm happy to take the $1,700 discount with Kittle on this slate.

Mike Gesicki - MIA @ TB ($4,200)

Mike Gesicki was highlighted in this space last week and I'm ready to run it back with the athletic Dolphins TE on this slate. Gesicki came through with a rock-solid Week 4 performance, posting a 5/57/1 stat line on six targets against the Colts. The Penn State alum has received just a $200 price increase for this week's matchup against a Bucs defense that has routinely been exposed by opposing tight ends. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the league in allowed catch rate vs TEs and has relinquished the third-most DK points in the NFL to the position.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

With no Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Kyle Pitts, this main slate was already an ugly one for the TE position, but things keep getting worse as the week progresses. George Kittle has been listed as doubtful since this article was originally posted and T.J. Hockenson is questionable. I do like Hockenson if he's able to go and, of course, Oakland's Darren Waller is the best pure ceiling TE play on the slate if you can afford him. Dallas' Dalton Schultz has been a revelation over the last two weeks, catching 12 of 15 targets for 138 yards and 3 TDs. New England's not-so-dynamic duo of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith cancel each other out in lots of ways, but there's a strong chance that one of them breaks out against the Houston Texans this week. Washington's Logan Thomas had played every offensive snap for the Football Team prior to leaving with an injury last week. With Thomas now on IR, this offense will turn to freak athlete Ricky Seals-Jones who is priced at just $2.5k and played 92% of the offensive snaps after Thomas went down in Week 4. RSJ is really more of a cash-game option, though he's playable in a pinch in GPP formats if you need to save salary.

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