Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 9 (2025) - Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Kimani Vidal, More

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 9 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

As we move into the second half of the schedule, the best rushing offenses and worst rushing defenses are becoming a bit more obvious, making some of the best matchups easier to recognize. However, I'm committed to digging through the stats to make sure we are loading up the absolute best spots for our main slate DFS lineups. A larger sample size of games to draw from is always a good thing, and should help save us from resorting to recency bias and looking at what one offense or defense did just one or two games ago.

As usual, I'm breaking down DVOA data, offensive line matchups, ratings, and various other metrics to validate those matchups and use as much empirical process as I can.

My goal in this weekly article will be to highlight the absolute best matchups for running backs on Sunday's main slate, with a primary focus on DFS. However, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top FIVE matchups for Week 9.

Week 9 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first eight weeks of data. The first column is the overall offensive rushing attack vs. their opponent, calculated using each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated by using the "adjusted line yards" created and allowed by each team. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

Jonathan Taylor ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

For the second straight week, Jonathan Taylor scored three touchdowns and broke the main slate as he managed 174 yards from scrimmage against Tennessee in an easy win for the surging Colts. He's facing a Steelers defense that has struggled at times to stop the run, and yet he checks in fourth or possibly fifth in projected rostership for Sunday?

I mean, I kind of get it because his price is up where we saw peak CMC prices a few years ago, as both sites try to encourage DFS players to go elsewhere. But that also makes me want to roster him in tournaments all that much more, especially when we have a good bit of value available in multiple positions this week.

As you can see in the chart above, Taylor and the Colts have the best overall matchup rating this week. Pittsburgh has given up 100-yard games this year to Breece Hall (in week 1) and Chase Brown (in Week 7), and I won't be surprised if Taylor rolls up 100+ on this unit that has not looked nearly as dominant as the Steeler defenses of the past.

The Colts are 3.5-point favorites on the road and are implied for 26.5 points this week - a bar they have cleared in all but one game this season. Taylor has the highest odds of finding the end zone twice and could easily turn in the highest raw point total this week. If you want to pivot off the chalk (this next guy we are going to discuss), then Taylor is a smash GPP play for Week 9.

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

McCaffrey is coming off his worst outing of the season as he was held to just 25 yards rushing and 43 yards receiving by a stout Houston defense in Week 8. However, he finds himself in a tremendous bounce-back spot this week as the Niners head to the East Coast to take on the 32nd-ranked Giants' run defense.

Yep, the Giants are dead-last in DVOA run defense this season through the first half of the year. And it was quite apparent that their run defense is their weakest link last week when Saquon Barkley gashed them for 150 yards on just 14 carries. Barkley took one 65 yards to the house on the first drive, and it was all downhill from there as Philly's backup, Tank Bigbsy, recorded 104 yards of his own on just nine carries.

McCaffrey and the Niners have an advantage in the trenches, where San Fran boasts the fifth-best run-blocking grade (per PFF). This game projects to be close with the Niners favored by just 2.5 points on the road, but that doesn't matter all that much as CMC is one of the least gamescript-dependent backs in the league.

Whether he gets there on the ground or through his receiving totals, McCaffrey is a great bet for 100+ yards from scrimmage and at least one score. He comes at a significant discount from Jonathan Taylor on both sites and is trending towards being one of the most popular plays on the slate. Make sure he's in your cash game lineups, and I wouldn't hesitate to plug him into those single-entry and 3-max tournaments, too.

Kyren Williams ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD)

L.A. Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

I usually like targeting the Saints defense with opposing passing games, and you should still definitely do that with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and company. However, the Rams have one of the best grades across the board in all three categories in my rankings, and a 14-point spread and potential blowout game script makes me think that rolling with Kyren and the Rams' running game may not be such a bad idea.

The Saints are turning to Tyler Shough at quarterback, and the industry seems to be gravitating towards rostering the Rams defense and their elite pass rush against the young QB in his debut. If that's something you want to do (I rarely pay up for defenses), then you should consider pairing that defense with Williams, who has multiple-TD upside in this spot.

Williams has a 56% red zone rush share this season and a 15% red zone target rate in the passing game. Concerns with his rush attempts dropping in recent weeks are valid, but his season-low 12 carries against Jacksonville had more to do with the Rams blowing out the Jags than it did with his effectiveness.

The Rams are rested and coming off a bye. The offense has all of its weapons back. They should blow the doors off this Saints defense, and Kyren is relatively cheap on DraftKings. If he scores twice, he doesn't have to pile up a big yardage total to be in the running for one of the best values of the day.

Kimani Vidal ($6,300 DK, $7,700 FD)

L.A. Chargers at Tennessee Titans

As much as I preached not reading into just one or two weeks of data in the introduction, we don't have much of a choice when it comes to Vidal, who has only been the lead back for the Chargers for three games since Omarion Hampton went down with an injury.

Vidal has had two outstanding games in those three starts, rushing for 124 yards on 18 totes against the Dolphins and then 117 yards on 23 carries against the Vikings two weeks later. Sandwiched in between those performances was a 9-20 outing against the Colts when the Chargers went down big early and were forced into a pass-heavy game script.

This game should not play out like that one. The Chargers are 9.5-point favorites on the road in Tennessee. The Titans' rush defense ranks 29th (DVOA) this season and has allowed RB1s to rush for an average of 83.4 yards per game and 1.5 touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor has gouged them for over 100 yards twice, but they have held all other backs under the century mark.

The reality is that at his price, Vidal doesn't need to break 100 yards as long as he finds paydirt and picks up a few catches. His rushing prop is set at 77.5 yards, which is one of the highest of any back not named Taylor. Vegas expects a very productive day from Vidal, and so should we. While the Chargers' offensive line has not been its strength this season, Vidal has shown excellent moves and vision to help compensate for it.

With cheaper backs now emerging as popular plays, Vidal could get overlooked on Sunday. Don't forget about him when building those tournament lineups.

Kyle Monangai ($4,600 DK, $5,200 FD)

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals

Thanks to an injury that is going to keep D'Andre Swift out of the lineup this week, the rookie Monangai gets his first start of his career in what could be the BEST possible matchup of any back on the slate.

Chicago's third-string running back, Roschon Johnson, is out, too, so we could see a heavy workload for Monangai, who has been very productive in his backup role this season. Monangai has averaged 26.6 yards on the ground per game on six carries, good for a 4.3 yards per carry average. He had already been eating into Swift's workload with 20 carries over the last two weeks and a 32% share of the team's carries.

The Bears should make every effort to run the ball with their talented rookie this week, as the Bengals' run defense has been abysmal this season. They rank 31st in DVOA run defense and have allowed back-to-back 100+ yard games to Jaylen Warren and Breece Hall the last two weeks.

Vegas has set Monangai's lines at 16.5 carries and 73.5 yards rushing - numbers we expect to see from some of the higher-end backs in the league. He's easily the best value on the slate this week (even with Kareem Hunt now emerging as a value option against the Bills with Isiah Pacheco out).

The numbers don't lie! The Bears have the second-best overall rushing matchup and the best matchup on the offensive line here. Be smart, Chicago, and feed the hungry young buck as many touches as he can handle! Meanwhile, we will lock and load him into cash contests, and I'll be tempted to go overweight on him in tournaments, too.

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks