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Sunday afternoon features the FireKeepers Casino 400 at the Michigan International Speedway from Brooklyn, Michigan. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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We'll be helping you along every day and night where there's a race, by providing you with expert prop picks all NASCAR season long here at RotoBaller.
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Pick 1: Rapidfire Time Pick The Correct Drivers
Recommended Prop Pick: Kyle Larson (-2.5) and Martin Truex Jr. (+0.5) over Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson is just the best driver right now on NASCAR. He also fares exceedingly well on the 550 HP setup. The thing is Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are teammates. They are pretty much a wash and arguably Truex Jr. just knows how to manage his car a bit better on these longer tracks. Michigan may not have the tire wear some tracks do but the lesser horsepower should help the No. 19 car.
For Chase Elliott, the problem last week was simply he was again his own worst enemy. This week, he will try to get past the No. 5 car once again. However, Larson just seems to have a bit more speed and downforce when compared to Elliott's No. 9 car. Again, watch the point spreads here as they are important. Winning is not enough here. Basically, Larson has to defeat Elliott by 2.6 points to win. The laps led differential may be enough to cover that. Also, Martin Truex Jr. is somehow getting a half point against Denny Hamlin. Anyone should take that all day, every day, and especially this Sunday.
Both drivers have around the same track record over the last six races at Michigan. Truex Jr. and Hamlin both have four top-ten results in six races. Hamlin has a slightly better driver average at 6.83 compared to the No. 19's 7.5. However, Truex Jr. has led around 6.5% of the lap while the No. 11 car has led a hair less than 4%. It is those little things that make a difference. Remember, every extra lap led is a tenth of a point. Ten more laps led equal one point. Every little bit helps and that is why we are taking these picks.
RapidFire Picks: Kyle Larson (-2.5) over Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. (+0.5) over Denny Hamlin
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Martin Truex Jr. MORE 16.5 Fantasy Points, Kyle Busch MORE 15.5 Fantasy Points
This prop is a fun one because who knows how this week could turn out. Hell, Kyle Busch could just win the whole damn thing this weekend at Michigan.
Luck has not been kind lately as last week our first prop here hit but this second one flopped badly. Bell was a victim of bad luck early on and Hamlin was late. Hamlin was just a couple of laps from winning when Chase Briscoe knocked him sideways. Martin Truex Jr. could lead enough laps and even steal a stage win on Sunday. That would be just enough to flip him into the MORE column as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is showing some nice form of late. Take the risk and ride the MORE here.
These point totals are interesting with Kyle Busch. He should find his way to the front this week after a rough one on the road course at Indianapolis. Last week was and is a distant memory. This week is this week. The prop number set at 15.5 is rather low considering Busch has six straight top-ten finishes at Michigan and has come close to winning the race several times. At the very least, he should lead enough laps to make this investment worthwhile. Again the No. 18 car could win this race. His car has outperformed Kyle Larson three times in a row with this version of the 550 HP build. Take the MORE again.
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