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Jason Katz breaks down why New Orleans Saints WR Tre'Quan Smith is an overhyped sleeper and ADP bust for 2021 fantasy football drafts.
Generally, rookie wide receivers need to hit 500 receiving yards to have a realistic chance at going on to having a relevant career. New Orleans Saints WR Tre'Quan Smith finished with 427 receiving yards. Nevertheless, for the past two seasons, Smith has been hyped up as a late-round selection. To be fair, it hasn't been without merit.
Tre'Quan Smith has ideal size at 6'2, 210 lbs and he has 82nd percentile speed and 85th percentile burst according to Playerprofiler.com. Smith supporters also had reason to believe he would be the Saints' WR2 behind Michael Thomas given their complete lack of wide receiver talent behind Thomas.
Let's look at the facts, though.
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It Ain't Happening
In 2018, Smith was a rookie, so we can give him a pass. In 2019, he was expected to take a sophomore leap, but he failed to usurp a 34-year-old Ted Ginn Jr. For most, that should've raised a giant red flag. It certainly did for me, which is why I railed against him as a pick last season.
For lack of a better term, I was "over it." More important than the fact that I had enough of the Smith hype is understanding why.
In 2019, Smith managed just 18 catches for 234 yards and five touchdowns on 25 targets in 11 games. In 2020, he was inexplicably hyped up again. In 14 games, Smith caught 34 of 50 targets for 448 yards and four touchdowns. He had one WR1 finish, one WR3 finish, and two WR4 finishes. The rest of his games were WR5 or worse. And in 2020, he got to play without Michael Thomas, which many analysts believed would be Smith's time to shine. Smith did see increased usage without Thomas as compared to with him, but it still didn't make him anywhere near fantasy relevant.
With Thomas, Smith averaged 2.83 targets per game and 5.82 fantasy points. Without Thomas, Smith averaged 4.71 targets per game and 9.74 fantasy points. We've only seen seven games of Smith without Thomas, but while the usage was better, it wasn't indicative of a player that will suddenly thrive in 2021, even with Thomas missing about half the season, if not the entire thing.
It's also worth mentioning that Smith missed a significant chunk of training camp with a leg injury. During that time, Marquez Callaway really emerged as the Saints' best wide receiver. At this point, I'd prefer to throw the dart on Callaway rather than Smith.
The Post Drew Brees Era
In addition to Smith's lack of talent, he is about to experience a quarterback downgrade. Taysom Hill is probably better for the Saints than Jameis Winston, but neither is better for Smith than Drew Brees. If Hill starts, the wide receivers will experience a volume dip as a whole due to Hill's rushing ability. If Winston starts, the receivers will experience a dip in the accuracy of passes. Winston fares better with a jump ball receiver and Smith is not that guy. Either way you slice it, losing Brees is not a positive.
Now entering his fourth NFL season, Smith is who he is - a rotational real-life WR3/4 being miscast as a WR2. He's had every opportunity to ascend in productivity, both as the starter opposite Thomas, and as the primary guy in Thomas' absence. He's proven time and time again that he's capable of neither. He's currently nothing more than the last player on your roster dart throw, so it's not as if you're paying a premium to draft him. However, Smith has proven that the ceiling simply does not exist, which renders him not even worth a roster spot on your fantasy team outside of deeper leagues.
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