PPR Draft Targets - Undervalued Running Backs

Antonio Losada evaluates running backs that should become fantasy football draft targets in 2021 given the potential ROI they could generate for their GMs based on ADP.

For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war rooms is a key part of the process, and the first thing to know is the format of the league we're going to be part of. The difference between Standard and PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems is really simple, with the latter awarding one extra point to players who catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.

It doesn't take a genius to know who this benefits the most: over-targeted receivers, pass-catching running backs, and reliable tight ends. While some players are good enough to put up good numbers on their pure talent, others might fall shorter on the ability leaderboard. Some of those, though, trump the most talented ones in fantasy leagues due to a heavier usage and racking up receptions that go for extra fantasy points.

Having the PPR scoring system in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets to excel in leagues following that format who are currently being undervalued in drafts by fantasy GMs. Today, I'm highlighting some running backs who are primed to become studs in these leagues that have lower ADPs and prices than those they should be attached to.

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David Johnson, Houston Texans

ADP of RB36, Projected to finish RB25

Not only did the Texans lose their starting QB with Deshaun Watson--not confirmed, but most probably--missing the whole 2021 season and probably getting traded, but they doubled down on that misery by signing two RBs to build a three-headed-monster backfield. To David Johnson, they added Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II, and while DaJo should still lead the pack, the other two will undoubtedly eat from the vet's opportunity pie.

All things considered, though, that's no reason for concern. What I mean is that Johnson's ADP of RB36 and 115th overall is ridiculously low compared to his projection (via PFF) of an RB25 (virtually a borderline RB2). That distance in price and projection has Johnson as one of only four RBs (again, by PFF numbers) with a positive ROI projection along with Tevin Coleman, James White, and Devin Singletary.

Johnson, believe it or not, is entering just his seventh pro-season at age 30. For all of the crap that has been thrown his way during the past few years, it feels like he should be 40 years old. But it's far from that. Johnson had a rough 2019 season but came back to a respectable RB21 finish, averaging 15 FPPG for the Texans in 2020. He should be on that level at the very least, and that RB2 finish came while playing just 12 games last year. With no top-dog at the QB position and not precisely a bevy of pass-catching options, Houston will need to rush the ball often no matter the game script.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

ADP of RB27, Projected to finish RB19

I don't think I'm introducing you to anything new in Mike Davis by now, but here we are. Backing up Christian McCaffrey for a large part of the 2020 season, Davis was insanely productive, and that allowed him to finish the year as an RB1 when the season was over. Davis racked up 206.5 PPR points in 15 games for an average of 13.8 FPPG, yet he didn't feature heavily in five of those 15 matches.

Davis, now a Falcon, is part of an offense that recently lost WR Julio Jones and has no more viable options in its backfield while only having added TE Kyle Pitts to the receiving corps. Yes, it took Davis six years to score more than 137 fantasy points in a single season, but he was sublime in 2020, getting to 642 rushing yards and an even more impressive 373 receiving yards to go with six and two touchdowns respectively.

The ADP is kind of low because Davis couldn't sustain his mighty levels of play in the first six weeks of the season (barring Week 1), alternating finishes in all of the RB1/2/3 realms throughout the rest of the year. That being said, though, his role will clearly be the one of a backfield leader and he's proved more than capable to do it on both the ground and through his pass-catching prowess. Bargain with upside for a high-end RB2 finish getting off draft boards below an RB2 price.

James White, New England Patriots

ADP of RB56, Projected to finish RB38

White's ADP only kind of caught up to his exploits in the past two campaigns, the lone two of his seven-year career in which that ADP topped 128th overall (!). That actually makes sense, considering he had overperformed his ADP in all four prior seasons with averages of 11.4 FPPG and an incredible 2018 season in which he put up career-year numbers to the tune of 276 PPR points, an RB7 finish, and a monster 17.3 fantasy points per game average. Obviously, he went on to regress in 2019 and 2020, but he was still very valuable as a high-end RB2 and then almost-RB3 last season.

The presence of Cam Newton in New England turned White into a less-used player out of the backfield, and that might stay the same in 2021, or maybe not depending on how much time it takes for Mac Jones to get the starting role. Even on a lesser usage profile, though, White still got 97 opportunities in 2020 and that would only go up to his prior levels (162 and 217 opps. in the prior two seasons) the minute Jones take the reigns of the offense.

White's projection to get a 12.9% target share among Patriots is the highest among RBs not named Barkley, Ekeler, McCaffrey, or Kamara. That's bonkers, even more considering White's ADP (almost 200th overall) compared to the marks of the other four rushers highlighted (none of them below 24th overall). We can't consider James White a league-winning RB because his role is not that of a true bell-cow, but he's a great FLEX play for all fantasy GMs out there looking for a set-it-and-forget-it player for that slot.

Honorable Mentions

Tevin Coleman (RB60 -> RB34): Coleman's upside isn't at the level of a league-winning rusher, of course, but the Jets' backfield is still as open as it's ever gotten. Coleman was always a bargain to my eyes and even with his recent ADP surge, I still have him as a very valuable pick for those trying to fill their RB corps late in drafts. PFF has a projection of 139+ PPR points for Coleman in 2021. That would have Coleman finishing the season as the RB34, a low-end RB3, and weekly FLEX play. That's absolutely insane considering Coleman's ADP of RB60. Only one other RB has a higher ROI projection right now while slotted as the RB1/RB2 in his team's depth chart (Cordarrelle Patterson) but I'm pretty sure we'd agree Coleman has the higher floor/ceiling of the two.

Devin Singletary (RB43 -> RB31): I am the first to acknowledge Singletary's partner in crime Zack Moss' abilities, but things are starting to get a little bit out of hand. Moss is getting drafted before Singletary, while the latter projects to 148 PPR points compared to Moss' 136. And that's probably the worst-case scenario for a Singletary that might rack up even more opportunities if he eats a bit from Moss' projections (nothing unreasonable). Singletary outperformed Moss at everything, comes with both rushing and pass-catching prowess, and although he dropped his levels of play last season (from 12.3 FPPG to 9.0), he should bounce back to his rookie-year levels in 2021.

Kenyan Drake (RB40 -> RB29): Drake had a rough start to his career but he's found himself in the past three seasons, ranking inside the top-17 RBs in all of them while playing for both the Dolphins and Cardinals. Drake is a virtual lock to average 10+ FPPG if we look at his resume and factor his new role (he just signed with Las Vegas) into the equation. The opportunities will be cut down from those he's gotten in his prior three seasons, obviously, but PFF is giving him a projection of 177 opportunities in 2021 that rank fourth among non-RB1 players. At his current 129 ADP (yes, available in the 10th round and later in most 12-team-league drafts), I don't think there are many backups as good as Drake for the upcoming season.

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