RADIO
Less than a month since we watched the last "numbered" of UFC events, the one pitting Usman against Masvidal for the second time in their careers, we're back at it with UFC 262 and another belt on the line. The Lightweight division gold will be up for grabs as we get back to Houston, TX, for the first time since February of 2020 (!!!) when Jon Jones and Dominick Reyes went at it all the way back in UFC 247. Not saying this will reach the levels of anticipation that fight generated and the "controversial" result of the main event put out there in the Twitterverse, but hey, if we get even remotely close to those I'll be pretty pleased.
As I said, this one will put Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler in front of each other to see who deserves to hold the LW title once the main card wraps up come Saturday. No current fighter is in possession of the belt officially vacated on March 19 of this year after Khabib Nurmagomedov retired back in October. High-stakes fight for these two, who find themselves in a prime position to make history without having to face the mighty Dagestani. Oh, and don't forget about the bout Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush before that nightcap, as both of them rank inside the top-10 best LW contenders and could have a shot at the gold themselves not far from now.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler on 05/15/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Charles Oliveira, $xxxx - vs. Michael Chandler
Dawg. What about Michael Chandler!? Mikey signed with the UFC not long ago, and all of the fights he has in the promotion amount to... one. One. Freaking. Fight. Against Dan Hooker this very own 2021 year of our lord. And all it took for Chandler to get away with a victory was 2:30 goddam minutes. Half a round. That's what it took him to knock the hell out of Hooker. Damn, son.
Charles Oliveira, though, embodies the total opposite fighter. He's been around since August of 2010, which is 10+ years of fighting for Dana & Co. Oliveira struggled to stay with the promo during his first few years racking up shaky outcomes at best, but oh boy have things changed of late. 8-0 for Oliveira is the run. He hasn't lost a single fight since June 2018. He's finished 7 of his last 8 foes via sub (five times) and KO (the other two). His last bout went to decision, sure, but there aren't many more dangerous fighters out there these days.
This looks like a fireworks fight, folks, so you better sit tight and get ready for some action. Don't get it wrong with Chandler and his small 1-0 record. He's 22-5 as a pro, comes from Bellator MMA, and he's a three-time champion there. No joke. Oliveira, though, has got his game right as hell of late. Charlie is the favorite and given his fight-finishing prowess of late I gotta give him the edge here.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Beneil Dariush, $xxxx - vs. Tony Ferguson
Is Tony past his expiration date these days? We're probably about to know, as he's 0-2 in 2020 and only got to defeat a washed-up Donald Cerrone prior to those two fights in the past two years and a half. I'm not saying Ferguson is definitely done for good, but that could very well be the case. He defeated Kevin Lee for the title, sure, but that happened almost four years to this day, and the only other chance he got at gold a year ago he fell to Justin Gaethje getting knocked out before the final bell.
Dariush, who has already stepped into an Octagon 18 times, has yet to fight for the belt, let alone snatch it from a foe. His current run is quite impressive, though, with a 5-0 record and 5-1 in his last six going back to the start of 2018. Dariush has finished all four of his last opponents inside the first or second round, the last two times via submission and the two prior via KO.
While Tony comes as the most-known fighter for the casual fan and as a former champ, the truth is that Dariush is the one on the ascendent path and getting closer to a title-shot these days. Tony might get it right this weekend, sure, but odds are with Beneil to get his sixth in a row here and Vegas is right there handing him a 60% chance of winning come Saturday.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Viviane Araujo, $xxxx - vs. Katlyn Chookagian
Chookagian knows what it takes to get a chance to fight for a title. She reached that point back in February of 2020 when she faced a mighty Valentina Shevchenko in UFC 247, precisely in Houston, and dropped her lone chance at the gold getting knocked out in just 11 minutes of fighting time. Katlyn has been on a rollercoaster since then, sandwiching another loss between a pair of victories, the last one in November.
Araujo, on the other hand, is fairly "new" to this UFC thing. Only fight entries are to be found in her log to date starting in May 2019 and finishing last January. She's 4-1 with her lone loss coming against Jessica Eye on Dec. 2019, but it's not that Katlyn didn't lose to Eye too on Dec. 2018...
Araujo has shown a more complete game going for (and landing) takedowns often (11-of-17 in the UFC) while keeping up a good volume of SS. Chookagian does it on pure striking volume without much grappling, but that seems to work for her if we're honest. Anyway, I'd go with Viviane Araujo to keep polishing her record this weekend and getting closer to the title shot Chookagian already got and dropped.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Shane Burgos, $xxxx - vs. Edson Barboza
Tony Ferguson's fight re-do, this one. Let me explain. Edson Barboza was a freak in his early days. He got to boast a sublime 13-3 record from his UFC debut to his win against Beneil Dariush back on Mar. 2017. After that, though, everything changed starting with a loss to über-winner Khabib Nurmagomevod. Since Feb. 2012, in fact, Barboza is a putrid 2-5 fighter and although he won his last outing last October he was 0-3 prior to that getting knocked out once.
Burgos, on the other hand, is coming hotter than not. Shane is 6-2 in the UFC, and contrary to Barboza he dropped his last bout in June of last year. That being said, though, he's 6-2 virtually in the same span in which Edson basically lost his edge. There are two clear trends going on here, and Burgos is the man clearly going up.
While Barboza can extend his winning streak and comes with a rather nice 48% chance of winning and a respectable 108 ML by Vegas, it's gotta be Burgos here snatching that W and getting back to the winning column. Burgos' loss to Josh Emmett still saw him land 128 of 250 SS over 15 minutes, he reached 64 DKFP even in defeat, and he's averaged a ridiculous 89 FP per fight in his career. To good to pass on him.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Schnell, $xxxx - vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Is Rogerio Bontorin fighting for his life this weekend? That might be a little too hard, I know, but while his even 2-2 record in the UFC is not bad, he definitely looked not-too-good in the last couple of defeats he had to endure starting in Feb. 2020 with putrid back-to-back below-10 DKFP scores. Ugh. Bontorin dropped the first one via decision to Ray Borg, and only landed 9-of-20 SS in 14 minutes, and then proceeded to lose to Kai Kara-France in 4:55 minutes last Mrach. Not looking right, folks.
Schnell, while losing his debut and also his last 2019 fight, is still a positive 5-2 in the UFC with a couple of early finishes to his name since the start of 2019. He skipped 2020 altogether, but when he came back in January of this year he defeated Tyson Nam via decision with an 85-of-214 SS performance for 72.5 DKFP on the night.
Bontorin should have the edge when it comes to grappling and the ground game on this fight, but his striking volume has been absolutely putrid and Schnell hasn't needed to go for many takedowns to score himself a couple of submission wins already. All things considered, Schnell should have the upper hand in fantasy contests this weekend.
