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Well, a bit of a buzzkill for Opening Day as both plays fell victim. The Cardinals dropped seven runs in the first two innings, all but finishing the Reds before the game even started. Then Atlanta and Philadelphia got the pitching performances many would expect out of their aces, which I still consider impressive due to the prowess of both offenses.
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season. Below are my plays for Friday, April 2. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1u)
O/U Record: 0-1 (-1u)
Runline Record: 0-0
First 5 Record: 0-0
Prop Record: 0-0
2021 Total Record: 0-2 (-2u)
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
O/U: 8 | SD -245
AZ: Merrill Kelly; SD: Blake Snell
Kelly is an interesting arm that goes through stretches of brilliance, but otherwise is just "okay." Much of his success has come at home, as he has given up 20 more runs, six more home runs, and his K-BB% is cut in half at just 9%. Naturally his HR/FB% is higher on the road, but there might be some bad luck involved there as he gives up less hard contact as a visitor. The offense had a strong opener, scoring seven runs, with six coming in the fifth inning but outside of that outburst, things were rather bleak. San Diego's staff racked up 12 strikeouts and walked only one. It's a relatively same lineup from 2020 that hit .210 against LHP with a .274 wOBA.
We get our first look at Blake Snell in a Padres uniform on Friday. The former Cy Young winner should directly benefit from the new home ballpark, especially after seeing a huge spike in HR/FB % last year, peaking at 29%, a number almost double his 2019 number, clearly a flukey stat, especially when you consider his average exit velocity last year was 6.6 degrees. I don't need to explain much about this San Diego offense after they burst onto the scene in 2020. Against RHP at home, they hit .268 with a .368 wOBA and .251 ISO, of course in a relatively limited sample.
I understand there is some unknown with Snell on a new team, but the talent difference between these two teams, on the hill and in the batters box, isn't close. Kelly isn't some toss away, and has had some success against SD in the past, but I'll trust the talent every time.
Pick: San Diego -1.5 (-114, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | TB -115
TB: Ryan Yarbrough; MIA: Pablo Lopez
The Rays got a dynamite effort from Tyler Glasnow on Thursday, as the Marlins bats were totally silenced. Yarbrough gets the nod Friday and will look to again minimize the Marlins with his ability to draw soft contact. He's not going to rely on strikeouts and likes to let his defense do the work, averaging a 41 GB% over his career. The Rays lineup has some weapons, like Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena, but no real superstars. Many expect Meadows to have a better 2021, after a down season in 2020. If that happens, he's be a key catalyst in improving their .248 average against RHP on the road last year. However, a team .323 wOBA and .185 ISO are solid marks and after scoring just one run Thursday, they'll look to break it out Friday.
The Marlins dropped Thursday game 1-0, which obviously hints that Sandy Alcantara wasn't the problem. The offense was totally stymied by Glasnow. Friday presents a different challenge for Miami, facing Yarbrough, but one they are prepared for. As a team in 2020, they carried a .333 BABIP against LHP at home, a top 10 mark in MLB and 82% of contact made was at least medium to hard, so while this offense isn't going to mash homers, they have a solid core. Pablo Lopez takes the mound and is a very underrated pitcher. His EV, xERA, Barrel %, xwOBA, and xSLG were all in the 75th percentile or higher in 2020, and is really looking to take the next step forward in 2021.
Yarbrough presents a totally different style of arm than Glasnow, but his style is more adjustable for hitters. While Miami isn't an offense that is going to bust the doors open, their bats are tough at the plate (except Starling Marte) and Lopez has shown capabilities to quiet lineups. I want to keep this one out of the bullpen's hands, so give me the Marlins first half winner.
Pick: Miami First 5 ML (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
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