RADIO
The beginning of Week 14 was a positive one, and then things went downhill quick...in both football and in life. Had a few family emergencies over the last 5-7 days and that's taken a toll on my mental state as 2020 seems to be getting worse before it gets better but I'll leave it at that. You'll only see two plays for me this week, but I like both of them a lot. Hoping to claw away at the unit deficit here in Week 15. Hard to believe we are almost a playoff time!
- Week 14: 1-2 (33%, -.95u)
- 2020 Season: 16-19-1 (44%, -3.38u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, -390)
O/U: 51
Fresh off two straight games of 27 points but taking losses in both (and losing seven of the last eight), the Panthers don't really have much to play for right now. The offense has been stable, averaging about 373 yards per game over the L3, including three straight 100-yard rushing performances. D.J. Moore returns this week following a stint on the COVID list, but they'll be without Christian McCaffrey again, but Mike Davis has been serviceable. Teddy Bridgewater has been serviceable for a transitional franchise, but some close loses spun this season away from him a bit. The defense has given up 25 points per game this year, however, their one-off 20-0 shutout of Detroit has skewed that number considerably.
The Packers are coming off three of their best offensive performances of the season, peaking at the right time, as they say. They got a little test with the Lions last week, but they've averaged 34 ppg and 413 ypg. Aaron Rodgers is having one of the best years of his career, completing 70% of his passes and has just four interceptions with 39 touchdowns through 13 games. Davante Adams and Robert Tonyan have been the key weapons for the offense this season, combining for over 1600 yards and 23 touchdowns, but running back Aaron Jones and his 7 touchdowns are also a key, when he's healthy. The Packers Defense has been good when they needed to be, but their 22nd and 21st ranked pass and rush defense by DVOA, respectively hint that they are certainly vulnerable.
Both offenses here are more than capable, especially with Moore expected back for the Panthers. The defenses are anything but consistent so give me the points here, especially with a moderately solid weather day expected in Green Bay.
Pick: Over 51 (-106, Fanduel) 1 Unit
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1, -115)
O/U: 41.5
Is there a more inconsistent team that Patriots? They've scored 10-or-less thrice, while also scoring 30 or more four times. Cam Newton has been just awful, throwing for over 200 yards just once in his L5, but the team's run game has bailed him out, rushing for at least 100 in four of those recent five. The inconsistency has to madden Bill Belichick but I'm sure fans around the NFL love to see it. Defensively, they haven't been prone to issues either, but they have recorded at least one takeaway in 12 of their 13 games this season. They've also been one of the better defenses recently, allowing just 13.7 ppg.
This Dolphins team continues to surprise people. At 8-5 and starting a rookie quarterback into the thick of a playoff race, last week's tough 33-27 loss to Kansas City was just their second since Week 8. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has managed the offense quite well, considering their running back situation has been topsy-turvy of late with injuries/covid. They've averaged 372 ypg over their L3, going 2-1 in that span, however, those were wins against the Jets and Bengals. They'll need Mike Gesicki (shoulder) and DeVante Parker (hamstring) able to play to really give their best effort; both were limited most or all week in practice. Defensively, Miami has been quite stout, allowing just 242 passing ypg, and while they've given up 120 rushing ypg this season, they've spared just 74 ypg over the L3, a number they will need to replicate against a run-heavy New England scheme.
New England's offense is ugly to watch and they don't produce great results even when they are playing well. I'm banking a lot on Miami's offensive playmakers to be healthy here, which is playing a risk. However, I'm trusting wholeheartedly in this Dolphins Defense. They had some issues with Kansas City, who doesn't? Give me the Dolphins.
Pick: Miami ML -115 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
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