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Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Chiefs vs. Bills MNF game in Week 6. Ellis Johnson analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.
What’s better than one football game? Two Football games! This Monday, I am moving from my usual Thursday preview to breakdown the first matchup of our Monday double-header. Originally, this was scheduled for Thursday, October 15th, however, due to COVID rescheduling, it is now being played at 4 pm EST on October 19th.
This game features two 4-1 AFC division leaders and has a slew of fantasy-relevant pieces. The Kansas City Chiefs are taking on the Buffalo Bills after each team faced their first loss of the season last week. Both teams will be looking to rebound, but only one will be successful.
I hope you are all as excited as I am to break down this barn burner. So without further ado, here is your RotoBaller Monday Night analysis.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
October 19, 4 pm EST
Notable Injuries:
- Sammy Watkins (WR, KC) - Hamstring - Out
- Mecole Hardman (WR, KC) - Ankle - Full Friday Practice
- Chris Jones (DE, KC) - Groin - Full Friday Practice
- John Brown (WR, BUF) - Knee - Questionable
- Zack Moss (RB, BUF) - Toe - Full Friday Practice
- Tre’Davious White (CB, BUF) - Back - Full Friday Practice
Must-Starts
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes is the definition of a must start. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has continued to set the fantasy world on fire. He is the QB2 on the season, averaging 27.6 fantasy points per game on a foundation of 15 total touchdowns and just a single interception. One noticeable change from previous years is the degree to the Chiefs are utilizing his rushing ability, especially in the Red-zone. He has two touchdowns on the ground and is averaging 25.8 yards per game (more than Josh Allen). Although Buffalo is widely recognized for its elite defensive weapons, they are currently allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game. Josh Allen will make this game competitive and Mahomes will do what he always does and light the fantasy world on fire.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
The NFL’s most improved player from last year is Josh Allen. So far this season he is the QB3 with only three interceptions (two last week). Not only does he have the third-most rushing touchdowns at the position, but he also has the second-most passing yards. There is no reason he shouldn’t keep this pace up at home against the best offense in the league. However, one potential downside to consider is that four of his five games have come against teams that are Top 12 in passing yards allowed per game. Kansas, on the other hand, is averaging the fifth least passing yards against per game.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
For the first time in his career, Tyreek Hill is having one of the most consistent fantasy seasons at the position. Although he has not cracked 20 fantasy points, he also has not had less than 13 (Half PPR). Currently sitting as the WR5 on the season, Hill is a must-start every week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
The WR6 on the season has taken full advantage of Josh Allen’s jump forward. With the fourth most targets and second-most yards at the position this year, he appears to be a sure-fire WR1 and a weekly must-start. Considering he only has two touchdowns on the year, and his target share, it's only a matter of time before he gets another. If he falls in the endzone he has top-five upside.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
This may be the last week of the season we see CEH with the full workhorse role in this offense. The recent signing of Le’Veon Bell makes Edwards-Helaire’s outlook for the rest of this season questionable. Thankfully for CEH managers, Bell will be unavailable for this game due to COVID protocols. Edwards-Helaire is the RB-13 on the year and has the seventh most rushing attempts in the league. Although the matchup on paper isn’t amazing (the Bills are 12th in the least rushing yards allowed per game) this workload on the Chiefs offense makes him a must-start option. Clyde can get it done both on the ground and in the passing game, making him an RB1 with the top 3 weekly upsides. The Pie Shop looks to be open for CEH, and I expect him to take a pie on the road before Bell comes into play.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
The best tight-end in fantasy over the last four seasons hasn’t missed a beat this year. Sitting on his throne on top of the 2020 tight end landscape, there is no questioning his elite fantasy ability. His 74.5 fantasy points on the season would make him the WR7 ahead of Mike Evans. There isn’t much to say. If you have the privilege of rostering Kelce, sit-back and watch one of the NFL's best put on a show.
Solid Options
John Brown (WR, BUF)
A surprise inactive last week for Tuesday night football, Brown has been listed as questionable going into this game. After watching the Bills’ last game, it seemed clear that Josh Allen was missing his sure-handed, veteran receiver. Although Diggs and Cole Beasley are solid receivers, Brown opens up the field for both players. In Brown’s three full games this season he has cracked 16 fantasy points twice. Surprisingly, last year’s WR-20 has maintained consistent production. Although Kansas is known to limit WR production, Brown has displayed the type of upside and consistency needed to be a good flex-play with upside for more.
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
Hardman is usually a very tough player to place in your fantasy lineups each week. His big-play ability is undeniable, however, he can completely disappear some weeks. This week, with Sammy Watkins offiically ruled out, Hardman may be a very reasonable flex player with week-winning upside.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Unfortunately, last week Singletary failed to capitalize on the positive matchup and Zack Moss’s injury. However, in the first four weeks, Singletary averaged a steady 81 total yards per game and has five or more targets in three games this season. With this in mind and the Chief’s being slight favorites, Singletary should receive the volume to be an RB-three this week.
Consider Sitting
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley is sitting at the WR-29 on the season, and I’m warning you to not let this standing fool you. Currently having six or more targets in all but one game so far, and averaging 62.9 yards per game, he definitely has a steady floor. However, with John Brown returning from injury, he really only has value as a high-floor flex play in PPR formats. I would personally look for a higher-upside player elsewhere.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Coming off a toe injury, the rookie will look to make his NFL return. In his two-game career, he only has 17 carries and 64 total yards. You can’t start him in any format.
Demarcus Robinson (WR, KC)
Being linked to Mahomes makes you a weekly threat for a 50+ yard touchdown. With Watkins out, Robinson may receive more looks from the SuperBowl MVP, but considering he has 50 yards in 5 games played, you can’t bet on that.
This is just a great game. These two elite teams have shown to be Superbowl contenders and are both looking to bounce back from losses. Usually, in games with sky-high totals, I tend to look to the under. However, these quarterbacks and offenses are just too good. Buffalo being home definitely helps my confidence for them to stay in the game as they will look to keep the ball on the ground and out of Mahomes’ hands.
So, with that, here are my picks this week:
Chiefs -4.5 (1-4), Over 57.5 (2-3)
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