Were We Wrong To Be Excited About Joe Mixon?

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has been a disappointment in fantasy football early in 2020. Eric Samulski evaluates his performance and usage to decide if he is a bust or a rebound candidate to buy-low.

We did it again. I say "we" because I'm right there with you. We told ourselves we wouldn't be duped. We told ourselves that we wouldn't go back considering the frustration he caused us in the past; yet, here we are, rostering Joe Mixon and wondering what we've gotten ourselves into again.

It seems like every season we convince ourselves that the talent Mixon possesses is too good to ignore. Surely an offensive mind like Zac Taylor will notice this and make better use of it. Surely the presence of first overall pick Joe Burrow will only make Mixon better. Surely, Giovani Bernard will eventually get phased out of the offense and become just another back-up running back. Yet, through three weeks, Mixon is the 38th ranked running back in half-PPR leagues. He's averaging a career-low 3.2 yards per attempt, has not found the end zone, and has already lost a fumble after not losing one in either of the last two seasons.

Fantasy GMs are fed up and thinking about shipping Mixon off to any interested buyer, but should we be abandoning the much-maligned running back so quickly? I re-watched a lot of Bengals film on NFL Gamepass, looked into the usage metrics, consulted some great work from Ben Gretch and Football Outsiders, and analyzed the upcoming schedule to try to help us all understand what to do with Mixon.

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A Clear Lead Role, But Does It Matter?

Right off the bat, we see that Mixon is clearly the lead back in Cincinnati. The Bengals have 70 total carries on the season; 52 have gone to Mixon, 16 have gone to Burrow, and only two have gone to Giovani Bernard. That means Mixon gets 74.3% of the total rushes, only Josh Jacobs (77.3%) and Derrick Henry (79.6%) have a higher total of their team's rushes through the first three weeks. In the game against Cleveland, where Cincinnati gave up 35 points and was trailing all game, Mixon still received 16 carries, and against Philadelphia, when Cincinnati led for a while and ended in a tie, Mixon received 94.4% of the team's rushes, which was 17 total carries (not as much as one might think with 94%).

All of which shows us that Mixon will get consistent carries no matter how the gamescript plays out. In fact, Mixon's 52 carries are 6th most in the NFL, behind Henry, Jacobs, Ezekiel Elliott, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kenyan Drake (also a surprise).

He has also gotten the most Red Zone opportunities of any player on the Bengals. That total is only seven, and he's only two ahead of Bernard and three ahead of Drew Sample, whose gotten four passing looks, but leading the team is Red Zone usage is still a plus. The majority of Bernard's red zone looks have come in the two-minute offense when he was the main back on the field, so there is optimism that, if the offense can improve and get more Red Zone chances, Mixon would see more high-value touches.

The second part of the equation simply comes down to: does it matter how many carries Mixon gets?

Of course, we know opportunity trumps all in fantasy, so, on one hand, yes, it matters. On the other, Cincinnati's offensive line is bad. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals are 31st in the league in line adjusted yards ("the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line"). They are 27th in the league in success with power blocking (43%) and 29th in the league in Stuffed Runs - runs where the back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage - with 22% of runs being stuffed. If we want to pile on, they're also 28th in 2nd level yards gained ("runs when running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage") and 31st in open field yards ("runs where running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage").

So the big problem here is clearly the offensive line. Mixon is getting enough carries to be successful but is simply unable to do anything with them, as evidenced by only having 78.8% of runs go for positive yardage. Mixon has 57.9% of his yards coming after contact, but he averages only 1.8 yards after contact, which means Mixon is getting a sizable percentage of his yards after being hit but isn't actually able to gain many more yards.

A perfect example is this 3rd down run on the first drive against the Browns. Joe Burrow reads the coverage and audibles to a draw from the shotgun formation.

Within seconds, about the time Mixon even lays a hand on the football, Browns defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson has blown by the right guard responsible for him, Fred Johnson.

Before Mixon can hit the hole, he's engulfed by Richardson - who also has an unblocked teammate ready to help out just in case Mixon had broken the first tackle. As seen above, he takes the handoff at around the 36-yard line, and, as seen below, he's met by Richardson at basically the 35-yard-line.

There isn't a running back in the NFL who could consistently wiggle out of that jam, and it's one Mixon finds himself in all too frequently. In short, we love the usage, which is actually elite, but the quality of that usage has been poor and may not get better with no offensive line help on the way.

Will They Ever Throw To Him?

Since we've established how often Mixon is used in the running game, this is the crucial area to determine Mixon's value.

First of all, Mixon is a good receiver. Just watching him makes that clear. You can't watch him make catches like this and come away thinking that he couldn't be an elite receiving back.

If we need stats, he has zero drops on the year, has a 77.8% catch rate, and has gained an elite 10.3 yards after the catch per reception this year, as evidence by his open-field agility and the ability to break tackles for additional yards.

However, Mixon is eighth on the team with nine total targets. Bernard has 15. Mixon has caught seven of those nine targets, but seeing only 6.6% of your team's total targets is never a positive. Especially when Bernard has 11%. This is doubly problematic since the Bengals are currently second in the NFL with 141 passing attempts through three games. This is a team throwing the ball often and still not targeting Mixon nearly as much as we'd like.

However, perhaps it's not all bad news. In total, his number of routes run is elite, and his route participation is fine. In Week 3, Mixon ran routes on 56% of Cincinnati's dropbacks, which was a season-high. Although the targets weren't there, the fact that he is running more routes gives me a bit of optimism that he can be more involved in the passing game going forward.

The key difference is that Bernard has 24.6% targets per routes run; yet, Joe Mixon has only 9.7%,. That could either be because Cincinnati is running more designed screens when Bernard is in the game (hurry up and playing from behind scenarios), but it's also a bad sign that Mixon is below his previous season threshold of 17%-22% targets per routes run.

The lack of passing game usage is a major concern, and we can't sugar-coat that. We know the talent is there, but we simply have to hope that the increase in routes run in Week 3 will lead to more targets as he gets closer to the rate he's had for the previous three seasons.

Room for Defensive Improvement?

One of the main arguments used against Mixon is that the Bengals Defense is so bad that they will always be trailing, which will lead to more Bernard than we might see if the Bengals were in competitive games and didn't need to throw to catch up.

When you dig into the Bengals' defensive stats, there is some cause for mild optimism that they won't be trailing as much as we expect. The Bengals defense is 24th in the NFL in yards allowed and are 0-2-1 despite facing the Chargers, Browns, and a banged-up Eagles team. However, their 74 points allowed is actually 11th in the NFL, and they've only allowed scores on 38.9% of the offense's drives, which is good for 12th in the NFL. Their Red Zone conversion percentage against is currently 60%, which is also 12th in the NFL, their average points allowed per drive is 11th, and their average time allowed per drive is 12th. What that all amounts to is that the Bengals may actually be an average defense and not a bad defense.

Yes, their opponents haven't been great, but they also have upcoming games against the Jaguars, Colts, Browns, Washington Football Team, Dolphins, and Giants, so there are enough games coming up to suggest that the defense may not be an outright liability. This is obviously important because closer games mean less hurry-up offense and, likely, less Giovani Bernard since, as we discussed above, Mixon is clearly the primary ballcarrier and is running enough routes to be effective in the passing game when the games are close.

Upcoming Schedule is a Potential Playoff Boon

Which delves right into the upcoming schedule. The remaining fantasy games for Mixon (with defense's yards per attempt ranking) are as follows: Jacksonville (9th), Baltimore (14th), Indianapolis (11th), Cleveland (6th), Tennessee (32nd), Pittsburgh (1st), Washington (15th), New York Giants (7th), Miami (23rd), and Dallas (8th).

When you factor in yards allowed per game, Tennessee, New York, Washington, Miami, and Dallas are all ranked 20th or worse in the NFL. Which, all in all, means that Mixon has a relatively average schedule for the rest of the season. Miami, Tennessee, Washington, and New York are all clearly plus matchups. Dallas, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis would be neutral in terms of running back value, and Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Baltimore would appear to be tougher matchups. So, four plus-matchups, three negative-matchups, and three neutral-matchups.

Looking further into it, Mixon will end the fantasy regular season with a game against Washington or New York (depending on your league's schedule) and then begin the fantasy playoffs with games against New York, Miami, and Dallas (again, depending on your league's schedule). Obviously, a lot can change with injury and performance of those defenses over time, but, if you're confident that your team can make the postseason, Mixon could be a strong contributor for you in Weeks 11-14.

Final Verdict

In looking at everything above, I think we were all foolish if we assumed Mixon would rise to RB1 status. The Bengals offensive line simply isn't good enough, and they target him in the passing game at a rate that won't raise his floor to compensate for the poor blocking.

However, I still think Mixon can be counted on as a matchup-dependent RB2 and an RB3/Flex in his tougher matchups. His fantasy playoff schedule will also make him more of a low-end RB1 in those Week 11-14 games, as mentioned above.

There simply aren't many running backs in the league getting the workload that Mixon is, and we know that he has the talent to do well with those opportunities. If there's any clear indication that the number of trustworthy backs may be minimal, it's that Adrian Peterson and James Robinson are both among the top-12 running backs in rushing yards and both Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert are top-15 running backs in half-PPR leagues despite missing one full game each. Rex Burkhead, Jerrick McKinnon, Darrell Henderson, and Todd Gurley are all currently top-24 runnings backs - or RB2s - in half-PPR leagues, and they all have equal, if not larger, concerns that those facing Mixon.

You likely didn't draft him to be an RB2, but there is value in consistent opportunity. Mixon's elite rushing percentage is rare and if Bernard ever missed time, as he has in three of his seven seasons, Mixon would have a top-five share of touches among all running backs.

I don't think you - or I - are going to get much for Mixon in a trade right now, so my personal plan is to hold onto him, especially in leagues where I have a strong enough stable of running back or flex options to pick up the slack during his tough matchups. I'll adjust my expectations for his performance, hope that the target share increases, and that he can come through for me in the playoffs. If it looks like my team won't get to the playoffs without help, I'll likely try to dangle him after a good game against Indianapolis or Tennesse coming up (or Jacksonville this week if your team is in a desperate situation).

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