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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa on 9/26/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After a one-week delay, UFC 253 has finally arrived. And we're pumped. Abu Dhabi will get one more even here and quite a neat one with two belts on the line and up for grabs: one if his current owner losses, the other one available "for free" given it's currently vacant. Uh, oh, those high high stakes. The build-up for this one has been long worked dating back to UFC 248, the original Adesanya vs. Costa scheduled date, but Costa missed it, Adesanya defended the belt against Yoel Romero, and here we are.
On the other title-fight of the main card, Dom Reyes and Jan Blachowicz will try their best to claim Jon Jones' vacated title, who he dropped around a month ago citing both salary-negotiation issues and a potential move to the heavyweight division. The rest of the card is not as packed as those two main events, but hey, those couple of matches should give us everything we want from this one. Welcome back to Fight Island, folks, where it is all about the gold in UFC 253!
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa on 9/26/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Israel Adesanya, $8500 - vs. Paulo Costa
I don't think any of these two monsters need any sort of introduction, but just in case... Adesanya is your undisputed, reigning MW champ. He's 7-0 and has two successful defenses of the belt already to his name against Whittaker and Romero after getting it from Gastelum back in 2019. Costa, on the other side this weekend, is fighting for the gold for the first time in his 5-0 career having defeated Romero in his latest bout.
You read that right. We're about to watch two men entering the octagon with impeccable records and a combined 12-0 run. Costa brings the super-KO power with his four knockouts in five fights--all before the end of the second round. Adesanya isn't too short of that, with three KOs to his name in his seven fights. No fighter goes for the takedown, but honestly, they have not needed them at all through their careers.
Costa has been targeted quite a lot in his bouts and absorbs 47% of the volume he sees. Adesanya defends 75% of the strikes he faces, getting the edge there. On the other hand, Costa is overwhelming at throwing significant strikes (16.3 per minute) landing 61% of them while Adesanya attempts 8 SS/min landing just 50%.
This is impossible to predict, honestly. I'm saying Israel just because he's the current champ and has already proved himself against much tougher competition. Costa looks as good as possible though, so I wouldn't blame you if your thoughts align with him. Toss up of a fight.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jan Blachowicz, $7200 - vs. Dominick Reyes
Did Dom defeat Jones when they faced each other seven months ago? Nope, although you might think he did. Anyways, we may never settle that debate with Jones now moving onto heavier pastures. Other than that blip, Reyes is 6-1 since 2017 and has defeated a bunch of top-tier fighters in that run.
As for Jan Blachowicz, the Polish is 7-1 going back three years and his only loss came more than a year and a half ago when Thiago Santos KO'd him. Currently in a three-win run, Jan can't look more solid having knocked out two of his last three foes before the UFC offered him a chance at the gold.
While Reyes has always been about striking, Jan was active on the ground game trying to land takedowns for most of his career until he stopped needing/using them in his last four fights (one unsuccessful attempt in all combined). So, expect a good deal of strikes going both ways. Reyes was close to making history by defeating Jones but failed. The numbers of these two on the striking game are super close. Give me the upset from the underdog here, even more considering the low price compared to Reyes'.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Royval, $7300 - vs. Kai Kara-France
While none of these two is a truly experienced fighter, Kai has been inside an Octagon five times to Brandon's one. That difference is already big, but it is even larger if we go deeper and look at the actual fighting minutes: 8:18 for Royval, and all of 75:00 for Kai. That's crazy, but it is we have on tape for this one.
Kai has proved an overwhelming strike-launcher in his career. He's attempted 168+ SS in all of his bouts, topping at 257 in his last one (a win). Royval, on the other hand, only needed 33 SS attempts before submitting Tim Elliot last May with a perfect 1-of-1 takedown attempt. That is Royval for you, a grappling master that excelss on the ground.
The gameplan here is obvious for both fighters. If this goes the distance then Kai would have the highest odds to score himself a points win if only because of the heavy striking volume unless Royval locks him on the ground and doesn't give him room. But I'm envisioning an early submission going Royval's way here to keep his record intact.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sijara Eubanks, $7400 - vs. Ketlen Vieira
I don't know why Vieira is the favorite here, honestly. Ketlen dropped her last bout getting KO'd by Irene Aldana last December. She had won four prior to that, but it is not that he's been overwhelming with her outcomes. Eubanks, on the other hand, has six fights since 2018 and is 4-2 on those carrying a two-fight winning string these days. But she has actually been overwhelming, not like Ketlen.
This fight is most probably going the distance. If that happens, Sijara has everything to win--both in real-life and fantasy contests. He throws more significant strikes per minute and lands them on higher rates. The same happens when it comes to takedowns, with Eubanks attempting twice as many as Vieira and landing also two-times Ketlen's.
Though this could be close, on a full 15-minute fight I have to go with Sijara given his higher floor and how she could edge Vieira both on the ground and by the way of strikes (remember, Ketlen was KO'd before the end of Rd. 1 in her last fight).
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Hakeem Dawodu, $8200 - vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
It is hard to see Zubaira getting a win here. Zuba logged his first UFC fight all the way back in 2014 but has only fought two times in the past year missing three years prior to that. He won his last bout via KO and ended the one before on a draw. Hakeem, on the other hand, has fought all of his UFC-career inside a three-year span going back to March 2018 and is 4-1 having not lost since he did in his debut.
This is a match of contrasting styles, with Dawodu carrying the striking prowess and Zubaira the grappling game. In his last four fights, Dawodu has thrown at least 139 SS landing 46% of them. Zubaira has not reached even 60 SS attempts in his last two, although he attempted eight takedowns and landed six of them in his draw with Lerone Murphy in 2019.
If only because of the volume, Dawodu should be the favorite here in a fight that should go the distance or end with a knocked-out Tukhugov before the final horn blazes. A reasonable favorite at a not-so-high price, make Dawodu your pick here.
