Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Super Bowl LIV Matchups Analysis

February 2, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for Super Bowl LIV. Spencer Aguiar and Chris O'Reilly analyze in-depth matchups via player-by-player breakdowns.

Welcome to our Super Bowl matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering the final game of the 2019-20 NFL season between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, helping you make the best decisions for your DFS contests this weekend. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other relevant information.

Spencer Aguiar will cover the Chiefs, and Chris O'Reilly will round things out with his analysis of the 49ers. "Last game of the year, Brent! Can't hold anything back now!"

If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @Teeoffsports and @cjoreillyCLE and feel free to ask away! Without further ado, let's get started.

Super Bowl LIV - Chiefs vs. 49ers (6:30 PM ET)

Matchups We Love

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

From just a statistical perspective, I'm not so sure that this is the best matchup on paper for the Chiefs and Mahomes. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in defensive passing success rate, but I can't get myself to fade the dynamic QB. There is a chance that Andy Reid calls a more conservative gameplan early than some might expect, but I think it would pay dividends for them to try and wear the 49ers out with a high-tempo start. It is worth noting that the Niners play zone defense 77 percent of the time, and Mahomes has absolutely torched zone defenses this season. It is difficult for San Francisco to deviate from that usual setup because their corners down have the speed to play man-to-man. That might make them a little one-dimensional, which is something you never want to be against Mahomes.

Damien Williams (RB, KC)

I really like Damien Williams for Sunday. Vegas opened Williams' over/under for rushing attempts at 11.5, but that number has already been bet up to 12.5 and looks like it will continue rising throughout the week. San Francisco possesses an aggressive front-four unit, but running lanes do tend to open up with the increased pressure they attempt to provide.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Linebackers Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner aren't ideal matchups for a tight end to face because of their coverage ability and speed, but a good game plan can quickly negate that if the Chiefs move Tyreek Hill around and line him up throughout the field. Kansas City's offense is geared towards finding the open guy, making it difficult to anticipate where this ball is going to go, but Kelce should prevail as one of Mahomes' top targets.

Raheem Mostert (RB, SF)

Raheem Mostert made the Packers look like the most disinterested defense to ever play in an NFC Championship game. Mostert rumbled for 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries to put the Packers away early, and he should be in line for another high-volume outing as the 49ers attempt to control the clock and keep Kansas City's explosive offense on the sideline. There is good and bad in his outlook, as Tevin Coleman is working his way back from a dislocated shoulder he suffered against Green Bay. If Coleman is inactive or even limited, Mostert is staring down a stranglehold on the rushing workload. That said, the Chiefs did just pull off the impossible feat of keeping Derrick Henry under 70 yards rushing in the AFC Championship game. Part of that is because the Chiefs took the lead before halftime, and you could literally feel the pendulum swinging away from Tennessee in terms of whether they'd be able to continue force-feeding Henry the ball in the second half. Still, it proves Kansas City is capable of taking away what their opponents would most prefer to do on offense. So while I very much love Mostert from a volume and game plan standpoint, I'm wary of banking on another monster performance.

Matchups We Hate

LeSean McCoy (RB, KC)

LeSean McCoy's zero rushing attempts in the playoffs shows that head coach Andy Reid has placed his trust in Damien Williams. While I think that will continue on Sunday, I wouldn't be surprised to see McCoy carve out a small role for the Super Bowl. However, whatever his final share ends up being, it probably won't be enough to warrant consideration in DFS lineups. Williams is the man you want to own.

Matt Breida (RB, SF)

Matt Breida has nine touches in the 49ers' first two games, clearly rendering him as a distant third option in this backfield if Tevin Coleman gets the green light. Breida's outlook would change somewhat if Coleman is inactive or limited, but I'm not convinced he suddenly jumps to the forefront of this picture. Raheem Mostert is more than capable of handling the lion's share of San Francisco's backfield work, and I can't confidently pencil Breida in for any more than five touches.

Other Matchups

Tyreek Hill / Sammy Watkins / Mecole Hardman / Demarcus Robinson (WR, KC)

San Francisco's gameplan isn't going to be to shut down the Chiefs entirely, instead, they are going to have to pick and choose who they want to neutralize. The Niners' secondary won't have the speed to keep up with the speedy WRS on KC, and they could find themselves in trouble if the Chiefs do take a more aggressive approach. San Francisco is ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to sack rate on first and second downs, and their defense could struggle if they don't create third and longs for Mahomes and company. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL in preventing sacks on third down, meaning if Mahomes has time to throw, this could turn into a barnburner. I'd imagine we see the Chiefs move Tyreek Hill around on offense, and since Richard Sherman doesn't usually travel with a wideout anymore, we probably see him placed on Watkins for long stretches. That possesses a big downgrade for the wideout and makes him a little too boom-or-bust for my liking. Robinson and Hardman would be my preferred route to go if I was looking for someone not named Tyreek Hill, but it is most likely Hill that has a chance to shine on Sunday.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)

Put yourself in the shoes of a coaching staff that has had two weeks to game-plan for a seemingly invincible quarterback. How do you prepare to minimize the damage Patrick Mahomes is able to do against you? You play to your own strengths, and you try to keep him off the field for as long as possible. Part of what makes this such an intriguing Super Bowl matchup is that the 49ers' strengths line up perfectly with the objective. I'm not saying it will necessarily work, as I expect the Chiefs to win, but if any team can control time of possession with the ground game and make Mahomes look human defensively, it's San Francisco. As far as where Jimmy Garoppolo fits into this formula, I don't know how much further we need to look than at his playoff stats, which include just 27 passes attempted in two games. Garoppolo threw the ball eight times in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay, and while that is due largely to a 27-point halftime cushion, it's not as though Garoppolo contributed to the humongous lead through the air. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman have combined for 69 rush attempts, 404 yards, and six touchdowns in the 49ers' two playoff games. Garoppolo has some intrigue from the standpoint that the Chiefs could force San Francisco to throw the ball more by way of actually putting points on the scoreboard, but this requires us to bet on game script as opposed to game plan. I'm more comfortable with the latter, considering it's what got San Francisco here in the first place.

Tevin Coleman (RB, SF)

If Tevin Coleman was 100% healthy, I'd be inclined to include him with Mostert among the loves. We all know the 49ers like to lean on the multiple-look rushing attack, and double-digit touches for both running backs would be a reasonable projection considering San Francisco's chances of winning will hinge largely on how effective its ground game is. But up until the divisional round when Coleman racked up 105 yards and two touchdowns, he hadn't been a factor in this offense for some time. Furthermore, it's not as though Mostert has been struggling to get by. Mostert more than deserves the featured role regardless of his teammate's health, and Kyle Shanahan should be comfortable letting him lead the way on Sunday. Feel free to factor Coleman in as a potential 10-touch play if he gets cleared well in advance of kickoff, just know that he doesn't have the inside track to much more than that.

George Kittle (TE, SF)

This might be the first time all season I've listed George Kittle outside the loves, but for the same reasons discussed in the Garoppolo segment, I have to admit I'm nervous about his fantasy outlook this Sunday. Kittle got by as an elite tight end during the regular season by way of a disproportionately high target share even though the 49ers were a low-volume pass offense. The playoffs, however, have given new meaning to the phrase "low-volume pass offense." For Kittle's opportunity to have remained the same as it was in the regular season, the 49ers would have to throw almost exclusively to him and no one else. Do I expect the 49ers to throw more than eight times against the Chiefs, or to exceed their two-game playoff average of 13.5 pass attempts? Of course. But without this game developing into a shootout, which I believe is the third-most likely possibility on Sunday, I'm not convinced Kittle will see enough targets to make him a definitively better option at tight end than Travis Kelce.

Deebo Samuel / Kendrick Bourne / Emmanuel Sanders (WR, SF)

As you've no doubt figured out by now, and probably already thought coming into this, the theme here is simple: I'd be surprised if the thing we remember about this Super Bowl is the 49ers passing game. They've locked horns in enough high-scoring affairs this season to let you know it's a possibility, but their identity tells us engaging in that style of play is something of a last resort. That said, you can't exactly fade the entire trio of Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, and Emmanuel Sanders, especially considering the relatively boom-or-bust nature of the receivers on the other team in this matchup. I'm most worried about Sanders, who is supposed to be on the same plane as Samuel when it comes to opportunity, but has only been targeted three times in the 49ers' first two playoff games. This sets him up for an extremely wide spectrum of outcomes. Samuel leads San Francisco in targets for the playoffs with nine, and it's worth noting he was the only downfield pass-catcher to see more than one pass thrown his way in the NFC Championship game. Bourne has the lowest floor; the divisional round marked just the third time all season he saw five or more targets in a game, and he predictably regressed to his norm in the NFC Championship game with one catch and one target. I wouldn't label any of these guys as having high floors, but Samuel is the one I'd be most comfortable with and Bourne will come as a low-cost option for DFS players who stack their lineups with top guys. If you enjoy the feeling of being irretrievably on-edge for three hours straight, Sanders is a high-risk, high-reward play.

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