RADIO
Happy 4th of July! To help you celebrate we get some bonus early baseball with the Marlins facing the Nationals in an 11:10 am start. However, the main action from a DFS point of view comes in the afternoon and evening. The afternoon sees a six-game slate, before a four-game slate in the evening. As this is a national holiday, and the majority of the money is on the afternoon slate, we will focus our attentions there for a change.
Interestingly there are no massive favorites on this slate, with Minnesota being the biggest favorite on the road in Oakland at around -130. That means there are plenty of options in play from a pitching point of view. Totals wise that Minnesota game is also the highest with a line of 10. However, all of the other games sit between 9-and-9.5, with the Seattle game not yet having a line due one of the pitchers being unconfirmed.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/4/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @benrolfe15.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo, CIN (vs. MIL) - $10,000
Castillo has been lights out this season, with a 2.47 ERA and 28.5 K%. His 12.9 BB% is a concern, but so far he has outperformed the issues. He has had a couple of issues facing the Brewers this season, but they were both on the road. His home form has been his strength, allowing just 12 earned runs in 56 1/3 innings and striking out 59. This is a nice price for a pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to go six-plus innings and strike out double-digit hitters. Earlier this season he allowed just one hit and one earned run against the Brewers at home, striking out nine as he went seven innings. That would be a very nice return for this price point if he could repeat that form.
Reynaldo Lopez, CWS (vs. DET) - $5,600
There is no way to sugar coat it, this is a massive gamble. Lopez has a 6.12 ERA, 5.86 FIP, and a 5.68 xFIP. Those are not great numbers, but he has been marginally better at home. The play here is against the Tigers, who rank 29th in the league in home runs and slugging percentage, as well as dead last in runs scored. Lopez had a fantastic outing the last time the Tigers came to Chicago, striking out 14 in six innings and allowing just one earned run to score. If he repeats that at this price point he could win you a tournament.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Gary Sanchez, NYY (@ TB) - $4,700
I decided to splash the cash here, but if you need to save some money there are other really good options right below Sanchez in Willson Contreras and Omar Narvaez. Sanchez has a .318 ISO and a .361 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He also has similar numbers against lefties so he is matchup proof later in the game when the bullpen comes into play.
1B - Derek Dietrich, CIN (vs. MIL) - $4,400
It is a massive shame the White Sox released Yonder Alonso because a left-handed pitcher would have been an opportunity to use him cheaply. Instead, we have to go more expensive with Dietrich, who has all 18 of his home runs off right-handed pitchers. 12 of those home runs have come in Cincinnati, giving him a .533 ISO and .464 wOBA against righties at home this season.
2B - Jonathan Schoop, MIN (@ OAK) - $3,700
This feels like solid value for Schoop, who has a decent if not spectacular .17 ISO and a .316 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. He does tend to hit better outside of Minnesota, so this game offers an opportunity for him to provide added value to your fantasy team.
3B - Kris Bryant, CHC (@ PIT) - $4,500
Bryant's strength is largely against left-handed pitchers but his numbers against righties are solid enough to make this price a nice value for him. His .369 wOBA is the main attraction, giving him a nice floor if he has recovered from his knee injury in time to join the starting lineup, especially in a series which has seen a decent amount of runs scored.
SS - Jorge Polanco, MIN (@ OAK) - $4,500
Polanco is having such a good season, with 12 home runs and hitting for over a .300 batting average. His batting average against right-handed pitchers is up at .324 and 11 of his 12 home runs have come with righties on the mound, giving him a .402 wOBA and a .256 ISO. Interestingly he has also hit 10-of-12 home runs on the road this season.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Avisail Garcia, TB (vs. NYY) - $4,400
Garcia is having the bounce-back year I was hoping for, with 12 home runs already on the season, and a solid if unspectacular batting average. He is averaging a home run every 25 PAs against left-handed pitchers, with a .196 ISO and a .318 wOBA. He has also hit 8-of-12 home runs this season in Tampa. where he has a .221 ISO and a .365 wOBA. This feels like a nice combination for Garcia to contribute today.
Max Kepler, MIN (@ OAK) - $4,600
Kepler is performing nicely in 2019, especially against right-handed pitchers. His 16 home runs with righties on the mound have given him a .296 ISO and a .377 wOBA on the season. Additionally, he has a further 16 extra-base hits on the season against righties, meaning he averages an extra-base hit once every 7.84 PA.
Bryan Reynolds, PIT (vs. CHC) - $4,700
Reynolds has been super this year, hitting for over .340 against right-handed pitchers. He has 18 extra-base hits in 175 PA with three home runs when righties are on the mound, and his ISO is .168 and a .395 wOBA.
