RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his Horse for the Course for the 2019 Masters, an under the radar PGA DFS selection for this week's DraftKings tournament.
It's time! The week we've all been waiting for is upon us. Welcome to the 2019 Masters edition of 'HFTC'! In an amazing story, Corey Conners pulled off the unbelievable feat of Monday qualifying for, and then winning, the Valero Texas Open. The victory will get the Canadian into the field at Augusta National. Dreams do come true and miracles do happen!
A lot of us are dreaming big DFS dreams this week, as the DraftKings 'Millionaire Maker' looms large for the season's first major. The Masters is my favorite tournament of the year and I think that's probably true for a lot of golf fans. It has it all...the greatest players in the game, the most exciting golf course in the world, and amazing traditions that we all know and love!
While I'm interested in course history on a weekly basis, I'm especially focused on prior experience at Augusta National this week. Year after year we seem to see the same names dotting the Masters top-10 and top-25. This week, knowing the type of shots to hit and where to hit them is at a premium.
Patrick Reed is the defending Masters champion and he has a pack of capable contenders that will be gunning for their own green jacket. This field of 87 is dotted with former Masters champions and elite players. A note on the field size of just 87...with the top-50 and ties, as well as any player within 10 shots of the leader making the cut, we are going to see a big majority of this field playing the weekend. So, while getting 6/6 through the cut normally means your golden, it won't amount to much this week if you don't have some high finishers in your lineup.
For this week's HFTC I'll be giving you some brief thoughts on strong course history plays. If you are interested in an in-depth breakdown, I urge you to check out my 2019 Masters DFS Bible, it's a massive article and I discuss EVERY PLAYER IN THE FIELD!
I try to make HFTC more than just a "picks" column (though you can certainly use it that way if you are in a hurry) by digging deep into each highlighted player. Obviously, our weekly jumping off point is a player's course history, but there isn't a firm set of rules when it comes to who is featured in this article. My goal is to help you succeed as a PGA DFS player. Period. I will touch on different GPP and cash-game strategies throughout the column each week and hopefully have some useful info for both beginners and experienced DFS players. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's tee it up!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Augusta National
Par 72 - 7,435 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass
The brainchild of the legendary Bobby Jones, Augusta National was built on a 365-acre property that had been Fruitland Nurseries. Jones imparted all his wisdom on the layout that would eventually become the most famous golf course in the world. The condition of the course is IMMACULATE, with not as much as a young azalea out of place.
Augusta National is a Par 72 that has been stretched out to 7,435 yards. The legendary layout tests every facet of a player's game. You have to be long and (somewhat) accurate off the tee, precise on approach shots with your irons, creative with your short game, and have nerves of steel on the lightning-fast greens.
Perhaps nearly as important as being able to hit the shots, is knowing what type of shots to hit and where to hit them. Course experience isn't an absolute must to play well at Augusta, but we see time and again how big of an asset course knowledge and experience can be in the Masters. The preferred ball flight is right-to-left (a draw for right-handed players) off the tee and a high cut on approach shots into the greens. While there is obviously more than one way to skin a cat, we've seen players that can hit those shots repeatedly succeed over the years.
The Horse
Rory McIlroy (DK - $11,600 & FD - $12,100)
Notable Course History: T5 (2018), T7 ('17), T10 ('16), 4th ('15)
Recent Form: Win (The Players), T6 (API), 2nd (Honda), T4 (Genesis), T5 (Farmers)
I'm not exactly going out on a limb by naming Rory McIlroy this week's Horse. The guy is in beast mode right now and is the odds-on favorite to win the 2019 Masters. However, I felt it was worth noting just how dominant McIlroy has been...both this season and throughout his career at Augusta National.
Rory took down The Players Championship and hasn't finished lower than sixth in any tournament this year. He's first in the Masters field in SG: Total over his last 24 rounds at 72.3. His closest competitor in that metric? Dustin Johnson at 52.6. Just to give you a little perspective, Rory leads the second-ranked DJ in SG: Total by the same amount that DJ leads Paul Casey, WHO IS 14TH ON THE LIST!
McIlroy takes this unbelievable form to a course where he has ran off five consecutive top-10 finishes. I would argue that McIlroy hasn't been near his best form over the last five years, which makes that accomplishment all the more impressive. There are some psychological hurdles that he must clear this week. He has some final-round battle scars at Augusta and enters the week with a heavy-load of pressure on his shoulders, both as the favorite and in needing the Masters to complete the career grand slam.
There are a couple of drawbacks to rostering Rory this week. He carries the highest price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Coupled with his high salary, McIlroy will also be an extremely popular option and should easily garner the most ownership of players priced above $10k. So, what do we do if we think Rory is going to finally slip on the green jacket this week? We will need to find other spots to differentiate our lineups with less popular players. Another strategy is to treat this week almost like a WGC event and leave some salary on the table when building your rosters.
The Ponies
Tiger Woods (DK - $10,500 & FD - $11,100)
Notable Course History: Four-time Masters Champion
Recent Form: T30 (The Players), T10 (WGC-Mexico), T15 (Genesis), T20 (Farmers)
C'mon...you know I wasn't going to leave Tiger Woods off this list. We all know about his amazing accomplishments, both overall in his career and specifically at the Masters. The interesting thing this week is that Tiger is almost flying under the radar - as much as it's possible for Tiger Woods to fly under the radar - as all the pressure and expectations seem to be on Rory McIlroy, with Jordan Spieth drawing a lot of media scrutiny and public speculation.
Woods hasn't steamrolled the competition in 2019, but he's looked extremely solid in his limited starts this year. There was a minor scare when he was forced to skip the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a neck issue, but overall Tiger seems to be in a good place both physically and mentally as he heads to Augusta National.
While he came up short at the Open Championship and again at the PGA Championship last year, I really love the fact that Tiger got the opportunity to feel that major championship heat again. Even though he's won 14 majors, Woods hadn't been in the thick of things in some time. Those recent experiences will help him tremendously this week if he finds himself in contention come Sunday afternoon.
We always peg Tiger as being a popular DFS option with 'casual players'. While there's definitely some merit to that assessment, I don't know that he'll reach the mega-chalk levels that some are expecting. He's priced with some heavy hitters and his DK salary specifically should put a damper on his ownership getting crazy. Everybody was pumped about Tiger in last year's Masters, but I think his outlook is more promising this year.
Paul Casey (DK - $9,000 & FD - $10,800)
Notable Course History: T15 ('18), 6th ('17), T4 ('16), T6 ('15)
Recent Form: Win (Valspar), M/C (The Players), T3 (WGC-Mexico), T25 (Genesis), 2nd (AT&T)
There's a lot to like about Paul Casey this week. Outside of a randomly horrible outing at The Players Championship, the Englishman has been rolling in 2019. He took down the Valspar Championship for the second-straight year, and has a T3 at the WGC-Mexico and a solo-second at the AT&T Pebble Beach also on his 2019 resume. He ranks ninth in the Masters field in SG: Tee to Green over his last 24 rounds and is only ever held back by a balky putter.
Casey's T15 in last year's Masters snapped a streak of three straight top-6 finishes at Augusta National. Since a T6 in his 2004 Masters debut, he has always appeared extremely confident and comfortable on this course en route to recording five career top-10s at Augusta National. Unfortunately, the Masters doesn't release Strokes Gained statistics, but it feels like Casey seems to roll the ball a bit better than average on Augusta's bentgrass greens.
At just $9k on DK, Casey figures to be a popular option. He brings top-five upside to the table at his reasonable price. I'm hoping that Tommy Fleetwood at $9.2k will soak up some ownership from Casey. Fleetwood seems to be the more popular player, but Casey is the option I prefer at this price point.
Jordan Spieth (DK - $8,900 & FD - $10,400)
Notable Course History: Win ('15), 3rd ('18), T11 ('17), T2 ('16), T2 ('14)
Recent Form: T30 (Valero) M/C (Players), T54 (WGC-Mexico), T51 (Genesis)
Man...Jordan Spieth has been a hot debate topic in the lead-up to this event. Everybody in the DFS industry seems to have a #HotTake when it comes to Spieth. I wish I came down stronger on one side of the fence, but I'm honestly torn on what to do with him this week and will be reluctantly wading into the Spieth waters with just a lukewarm opinion.
His course history is really second to none. He has one green jacket already and I don't think it's a stretch to say that he should have two and could have as many as four. Spieth's worst finish in five career starts at Augusta is a T11 in 2017 and the Masters just seems to bring the best out of the 25-year-old that already has three major championships on his resume.
While his course history is a thing of beauty, his current form would make a train take a dirt road. Everything about Spieth in 2019 screams "RUN!". He ranks outside the top-50 (!) in the field over his last 24 rounds in every major Strokes Gained category except for standing 49th in SG: Approach. A huge deal has been made about his putting issues over the past year, but the problems with his game run much deeper than just a balky flatstick. Outside of the physical aspect, I'm also not sure where Spieth is mentally at this point. The player we thought was the most mentally-tough player we've seen since Tiger Woods, just hasn't been the same since his 2016 collapse in this tournament.
I wish I could paint a clear picture of what will happen with Spieth from a DFS ownership perspective, but that outlook is cloudy, with some glimmers of form at the Valero last week only further complicating things. Will sharp players run away from his recent form or take a contrarian approach by going heavy on him? Will rostering him even be contrarian? There are more questions than answers with Spieth this week. Personally, I won't be all-in or all-out, but will have some light Spieth exposure when multi-entering the Milly Maker.
Matt Kuchar (DK - $7,900 & FD - $9,700)
Notable Course History: T28 ('18), T4 ('17), T5 ('14), T3 ('12)
Recent Form: T7 (Valero), 2nd (WGC-Match Play), T26 (Players), 50th (WGC-Mexico), Win (Sony)
While the DFS community is sharply divided on the aforementioned Jordan Spieth, the consensus on Matt Kuchar this week is overwhelming. He carries a strong combination of sharp current form and elite Masters history at a DK price tag that's way too cheap. Kuchar will be THE chalk this week - let's just get that out of the way - and presents an interesting DFS dilemma: Do we elect to take the 'free square' by rostering him or employ a game theory-based fade in the Milly Maker?
After going winless for nearly five years, Kuchar has been on a victory binge. He closed out 2018 with a swing season win at Mayakoba and kicked off 2019 with a win in Hawaii at the Sony Open. Kuch hasn't lifted anymore trophies yet, but he came very close at the WGC-Dell Match Play, where he reached the finals before falling to Kevin Kisner.
His history at Augusta National is pristine. Kuchar has three top-fives and a top-10 against one missed cut in 12 career Masters starts. He's a former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket and has always been a crowd favorite at Augusta National.
I don't know that many people believe that Kuchar will completely whiff this week, but his expected ownership does force us to make some rather nuanced decisions. At what point does fading Kuchar at $7.9k become counterproductive? This is where you must evaluate where you truly believe Kuchar will finish in the Masters. Do you think he will win this week? If so, roster him. Top-five? Lock him in. Top-10? Ok. If you think Kuch will finish outside the top-10, that's where a fade becomes interesting. Let's say he logs a T21 at 35% ownership...a fade could offer some serious leverage in that scenario. Ultimately, your decision should come down to how strongly you feel about Kuchar's chances of logging a very high finish, as well as your risk tolerance in GPP's.
Charley Hoffman (DK - $6,800 & FD - $8,500)
Notable Course History: T12 ('18), T22 ('17), T29 ('16), T9 ('15)
Recent Form: 2nd (Valero), T18 (Valspar), M/C (Players), M/C (API), M/C (Genesis)
We're rounding out the Masters edition of HFTC with Charley Hoffman. Though the California-born Hoffman and Augusta National seem like an odd couple, it has been a peanut butter & jelly combination through the years.
Hoffman has never logged worse than a T29 finish in the Masters over five career appearances. He qualified for this year's Masters thanks to a T12 performance in the 2018 edition and also recorded a T9 finish in 2015. He has a penchant for quick starts at Augusta National and has fired a sub-70 opening round in three of his last four starts at Augusta National.
This season had been a lost cause for Hoffman, as he'd scuffled to five missed cuts in 2019. He seemed to find something a few weeks ago at the Valspar though and he logged a T18, his best outing of the year to that point. Hoffman really cranked things up last week at the Valero Texas Open - on another course where he's traditionally played well - and he logged a runner-up finish to the surging Corey Conners. Charley gained 9.6 strokes total at the Valero, including 6.2 on Approach and 3.3 Off the Tee.
While we don't have to go value hunting this week, Hoffman has an intriguing blend of trending form and solid course history at his sub-$7k price tag. He makes it possible to stack Rory McIlroy with another elite player. His Valero outing put him on some radars, but I look for Kevin Kisner and Charles Howell III to soak up plenty of the ownership in this price range.
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