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In Part 7 of his fantasy baseball strategy series to make sabermetrics accessible to fantasy owners, Rick Lucks breaks down how to use a player's spot in the order to predict their counting stats.
To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining a given player's real value.
That might work for stat heads, but fantasy owners frequently see 40% or more of a player's value tied to his RBI and run totals. We have to care about them.
Drafting hitters from strong offenses can help pad the totals, but as you'll see, an even bigger advantage can be found by looking at a player's slot in the batting order.
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Lineup Slot & Counting Stats
In the table below, each batting order slot's PA, RBI and Runs are presented from the 2018 season. The final number is simply R + RBI, an approximate measure of that slot's overall value to a fantasy team.
| Slot | PA | RBI | R | RBI+R |
| 1st | 22,631 | 2,056 | 3,187 | 5,243 |
| 2nd | 22,132 | 2,334 | 2,907 | 5,241 |
| 3rd | 21,614 | 2,848 | 2,708 | 5,556 |
| 4th | 21,129 | 2,977 | 2,574 | 5,551 |
| 5th | 20,642 | 2,502 | 2,390 | 4,892 |
| 6th | 20,107 | 2,329 | 2,197 | 4,526 |
| 7th | 19,534 | 2,036 | 2,079 | 4,115 |
| 8th | 18,964 | 1,968 | 1,881 | 3,849 |
| 9th | 18,386 | 1,556 | 1,707 | 3,263 |
Each batting order slot loses around 500 PAs compared to the slot before it. If we divide this total by the 30 current MLB clubs, we get a difference of around 17 PAs between consecutive hitters on one team. That may seem insignificant, but it compounds. For example, there is an average of 34 PAs separating a team's leadoff man from the three hitter. Counting stats like Runs and RBI require an opportunity to accumulate, and hitters earlier in the batting order have more opportunity. Bear this in mind when comparing similarly skilled players on draft day.
RBI are highest from the cleanup spot, and trend downward in both directions from there. Leadoff hitters only get more RBI than the seventh, eighth, and ninth spots despite the largest PA total. This is because they never have runners on base before their first PA of the game, and need to rely on the weaker eighth and ninth hitters to get on in front of them after that. Since good hitters are usually clustered early in the order to maximize their PAs, leadoff men get minimal help from their teammates in producing RBI.
Runs peak at the leadoff slot and decrease from there. This decrease is not linear, as 280 runs separate the first and second spots while only 118 separate sixth and seventh. For this reason, fantasy owners want to stick to the early batting order slots where teams cluster their best hitters if possible. Leadoff guys have the most opportunity and the team's best hitters hitting behind them, so they score a lot of runs for the same reason they do not register many RBI.
Finally, the R+RBI column refutes the idea that a team's heart of the order is 3-4-5. It is actually 1-2-3-4, the only lineup slots to exceed 5,000 combined R+RBI. The 5th slot is solid with 4,892 R+RBI, but the others clearly lag behind. This means that a player in the middle of a weaker offense may outproduce a player on the periphery of a stronger one. Platoons, injuries, and lineup shuffling can change these numbers, but in general the earlier the slot, the better for fantasy purposes.
The only counting stat left is stolen bases. A player's success rate must generally hover between 65 and 75 percent to keep the green light, as otherwise he is costing his team runs. Players that consistently fail to reach this benchmark, such as Roughned Odor of the Texas Rangers, are poor bets to steal a lot even if they've swiped 20 in the past. This is particularly true of contending teams, as weaker clubs may run with reckless abandon just to see what happens.
To conclude, counting stat production depends on opportunity and team support. Players that bat early in the order tend to get more of both, though leadoff men give up RBI potential for increased runs scored. This concludes the offensive portion of learning to use sabermetrics for fantasy purposes. Next time, we'll move to the mound and try to understand what the heck FIP is, and why it sometimes has an x in front of it.
jiffyNews tags_include='8071' headline='More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy']
