RADIO
Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 10. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.
One man's trash is another man's treasure. This is what I tell myself when I'm bidding $6 for Ryan Braun in an Ottoneu league where I need OF help or adding Zack Godley to a pitching staff that has underperformed. These players aren't without warts and could never turn back to top form this season, but that doesn't mean they aren't worth buying into. Likewise, a strong first two months doesn't necessarily equate a full season of awesomeness. Keep in mind that you should always be chasing projected future value, not past production.
Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.
I will typically include at least one player at each key position group (infield, outfield, pitcher) and will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, time to assess some fantasy values.
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Underrated Players - Week 10
Starlin Castro (2B, MIA) 52% owned
Thanks to numerous injuries in one particular league, I've found myself in the market for a middle infielder recently (read: desperate) and find the pickings to be very slim. Jose Rondon isn't being given regular playing time and Amed Rosario doesn't inspire confidence that he can sustain his hitting streak, but sometimes there are surprising values floating around on the waiver wire. Starlin Castro has gradually been discarded by fantasy owners expecting a repeat of last year's numbers, but disappointed to see that he went homerless through April. That and the fact the Marlins are bad in an epic way. While the power has been slow to come along and his SB value has been non-existent since 2012, the less-exciting Runs Scored category counts just as much in roto. He's no Ozzie Albies (who is?), but Castro is ninth among second baseman and in the top 50 overall for runs on the season. As the #3 or #4 hitter most days, there will continue to be RBI opportunities as well. A .286 average is nothing to complain about either. The ceiling is limited, but Castro could plug a hole in your MI spot where younger hitters like Scott Kingery have failed.
Harrison Bader (OF, STL) 7% owned
Fellow prospect Tyler O'Neill was recently sent back down to Triple-A Memphis and Marcell Ozuna is battling a finger injury, in addition to an already-broken alarm clock. Bader might not have earned Top 100 prospect status from national publications like O'Neill, he is a former Florida Gator and third-round pick with plenty to offer. He has plus speed, which he's already flashed with six steals. He doesn't project to be a huge power hitter, but he's posted an impressive .194 ISO and gone deep five times already. Playing time is the only thing stopping Bader from being a fantasy regular, but with the health of the St. Louis outfield this season, that might be easier to find than you'd think. He makes for a wise bench stash in deep leagues, while his buy-low window in dynasty is closing rapidly.
Ryan Braun (1B/OF, MIL) 73% owned
Some fantasy owners in shallower formats have gotten disgruntled with the former MVP following his latest DL stint. His ownership is now below the 3/4 mark across all leagues and he's considered a throw-in for many trade offers. Braun represents the Holy Trinity of red flags for a declining veteran: a sudden power drop, recurring injuries, and worsening plate discipline. Braun only went deep 17 times last year, partially due to the fact he missed 58 games. His 11.3% Swinging Strike rate in 2018 is the worst since his rookie year in 2007. Sounds like a hard sell, but things aren't as bad as they seem. His 0.44 BB/K is nearly identical to his 0.45 career mark. His .274 BABIP and 15.2% HR/FB are both due for at least a little positive regression. His back problems are likely the main culprit for his disappointing start to the year, so if you buy low on Braun at this point you're rolling the dice on his health. If he is anywhere close to 100%, you could come away with a bargain.
Zack Godley (SP, ARI) 77% owned
The impetus for this selection is the fact I just scooped up Godley off the waiver wire in a 12-team league and see his ownership slowly dipping. It makes sense, since his ERA is at 4.38 and his strikeout rate has dropped by five points since last year. It appears he's lost a bit of velocity across all pitches and his go-to pitch, the curveball has gone from an A+ plus to simply average. Last year, his curve earned a 21.0 pitch value, compared to 0.2 this season. Does this mean last year was a fluke? In reality, Godley's true value probably lies between what we're seeing now and what we witnessed last year. His lack of a dominant fastball and increased predictability in reliance on his off-speed arsenal mean he probably won't fool batters to the tune of 10 K/9, but take away his one horrible start against the Brewers recently and his ratios are above-average for fantasy purposes. You don't need to insist on owning Godley, but don't pass up a chance to make him a waiver wire add or a cheap buy from an opponent who has lost interest.
Joe Musgrove (SP/RP, PIT) 50% owned
In an effort to get ahead of this one as much as possible, add Musgrove now before it's too late. He had a stellar first two starts to his Pirates career, lasting seven innings and notching a victory in each. He also earned major dugout cred for his hard slide into second base against the Cubs. Musgrove only had 25 Major League starts entering this season and posted an unsightly 4.77 ERA for the World Champs last year. His diverse repertoire includes an effective cutter, slider, and changeup in addition to his fourseam fastball. The presence of a pitcher-friendly home park doesn't hurt either. Musgrove isn't going to win anybody the strikeout crown, but he is comparable to Miles Mikolas in the sense that he limits walks and knows how to strand runners. Don't be afraid to buy into the small sample size - we know the talent is there.
Steven Wright (SP/RP, BOS) 1% owned
Important disclaimer: in no way do I endorse Steven Wright the human being and I believe he should have been suspended far more than 15 games, as domestic violence should not be tolerated in any form. Objectively speaking in terms of fantasy baseball value, Wright looks to be a sneaky add now that he is filling an important role in Boston's bullpen. It may not be long before he finds his way into some spot starts or fills in for an injured starter. You may recall two years ago when he won 13 games and posted decent ratios (3.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) as a regular starter. His strikeout upside isn't high, but he could fill some innings in the RP spot and rack up wins once again.
Overrated Players - Week 10
Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS) 62% owned
As soon as HanRam was let go, Moreland became an instant must-add. He was hot at the plate throughout May, batting .348 with six homers and 16 RBI on the month. Let's not forget, however, that this is still Mitch Moreland. He can be a perfectly fine CI, but make sure you know exactly what you're getting, because it's fairly predictable. Moreland hit either 22 or 23 HR in four of the last five seasons. Moreland is a career .254 hitter whose BABIP is now 59 points above his norm. Moreland is a serviceable first baseman who could set a new career-best RBI total by reaching 90 for the first time. At age 32, he's not going to be a "breakout" player, though
Travis Jankowski (OF, SD) 18% owned
All off the J train! Jankowski was up to 33% ownership not long ago, but his 15 minutes of fame (for fantasy owners) is over. He started this season in the minors--not due to injury, but because he was a .187 hitter for the Padres last season. Now that he has accumulated about a full season's worth of at-bats at the MLB level, here's what we know: he can steal bases, his average will probably sit below .250, he will add almost no other counting stats other than a few runs, and he plays on one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Padres are auditioning every outfielder in their farm system, from Franchy Cordero to Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe is back in action now. If you added Jankowski, clear yourself the roster space or try spinning him to a steal-needy team for anything of value.
Corey Dickerson (OF, PIT) 78% owned
I was all over Dickerson in the preseason and have reaped the rewards of a .310/.346/.490 slash line with 25 runs and 31 RBI in a couple of places. He could easily post numbers similar to 2017 again, but there are two concerns cropping up: Austin Meadows has forced his way into the OF rotation and some of his peripherals look too good to be true. Known as a free swinger, Dickerson has suddenly cut his K% down to 10.3%, which places him seventh among qualified batters. This is great, but is it sustainable? He's also been able to turn in more line drives than ground balls, but that could go the other way a bit. You hate to predict a slump for anyone, but Dickerson might be due.
Brad Brach (RP, BAL) 63% owned
Brach had a rough start to the year, but has settled down in a big way. Over the last two weeks, Brach picked up three saves and he has not allowed an earned run to score in exactly one month. One problem: guess who's back (almost)? Zach Britton is on a rehab assignment and struck out the side in a Single-A appearance recently. He could be back within the next two weeks on the mound for the Orioles. There aren't a lot of save opportunities to go around in Baltimore these days, but the precious few Brach was able to acquire will now be ceded to Britton again. Savvy owners should already be aware of this inevitability, but if you think you can fetch a starting bat in exchange for Brach, do it now.
