Are we really already at Week 11? The holiday season is now mostly in our rear-view mirror, and it's about that time where games start to mean a little bit more. January basketball will start to weed out the pretenders from the contenders. The benefit in fantasy? We MAY get a few less late scratches, but there are no guarantees here, of course.

Before I get further off on a tangent on the young talent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore.

Let's take a look.

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DFS Value Risers - Week 11

Carmelo Anthony (PF, OKC)

Carmelo's role in this Thunder offense has been a little tough to figure out. He'll average somewhere in the range of 12-15 shots per game, then disappear for a pair of games. As such, his fantasy output has been all over the place - and as has his price tag. With it plummeting more than $1,000 in the past 10 days (and $1,500 in the month of December), I think the time is now to take your chances on him in tournaments. Looking at his game logs at this new price point, you'll notice he's reached and/or beaten value in four straight. He may not be the safest cash game piece, but at least we know he can hit value on an average shooting night. At roughly 0.8 fantasy points per minute, he needs just 32 minutes to hit value - which has essentially been his average minutes played per game (save for blowouts). My ultimate interest right now, though, is in tournaments, not only due to the depressed price tag, but ownership levels have often been in the single digits in the past two weeks, which creates great leverage in large-field GPP's if he were to have a strong shooting night.

Kemba Walker (PG, CHA)

Kemba having just a $6,600 price tag tonight is a bit baffling and yet, intriguing for tournaments and cash games. In the four years I have been playing DFS, I can't seem to remember such a low price for a player with such a high ceiling. Kemba's price has dropped $1,300 in the past week, and that makes him an incredible value. The Charlotte offense has been ugly at times this season, but Walker is what makes them go. He averages more than a fantasy point per minute (1.01) and plays nearly 35 a night with a very attractive Usage rate of 26. The PPM marks and the length of time he spends on the court creates a great floor, and the Usage rate along with his play-making ability (getting Dwight Howard involved, for example) give him a pretty damn high ceiling. His matchup tonight against the Celtics isn't really cash game safe, but it is the type of environment and game context he can thrive in, so take a shot in tournaments and fire him back up in cash once the Celtics leave town.

 

DFS Value Fallers - Week 10

Josh Hart (PG/SG, LAL)

Josh Hart has been a pleasant surprise for those looking for punts in cash and tournaments lately, as he has been filling in at point guard for the injured Lonzo Ball - and crushing value in the process. Hart has performed well enough to beat value in three of his last four, but his price has also risen (+700) in the past week, and with Ball returning soon, there's a minuscule chance he can provide value when his minutes take a hit. Digging through his game logs, you'll see that Hart has failed to hit value in every single game this month where he played less than 20 minutes. If Ball is to remain out a little longer, he's a fine punt, but his value has taken a huge hit with the price increase. Be sure to kick him back to your bench once Ball returns to the starting lineup.

Enes Kanter (PF/C, NYK)

I hope you rostered Enes Kanter on Christmas day, because that one was one hell of a performance at incredibly low ownership and a very moderate price tag. Unfortunately, what comes after crushing value in two straight games is an increased price tag (+1,000). Kanter has shown he's excellent around the rim and can create offense for himself through put-backs, but these performances - with Usage rates of 25 and 30 (Christmas day) aren't likely to happen again. At his new price tag, his implied total is 32 fantasy points. That's a pretty lofty total for a guy who is generally a third or fourth offensive option. Combing through game logs for the past month, I've found Kanter has only surpassed that 32 point mark four times. Ouch. He's an absolute no in Cash games. I suppose you could take a flier in tournaments, but it's going to be so difficult for him to provide "plus" value, and that's what you'll need out of a nearly 7K PF/center to take down a tournament.

 

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