November 4, 2017

Travis Rosen breaks down the trade of wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin to the Buffalo Bills. He advises which WR should be risers or fallers for the rest of 2017.

While a couple of big trades went down before this year's NFL trade deadline, the Kelvin Benjamin deal is possibly the most surprising. Nobody expected Buffalo to add yet another receiver and it's still not clear what the Panthers were thinking by dealing their WR1 with no clear replacement.

Benjamin was inactive for this week's Thursday night game, but should be in the lineup for Week 10 when the Bills face the Saints. The Panthers will continue searching for an offensive identity and some semblance of consistency against the Falcons this weekend.

So, now that Benjamin is a Bill, what will the fallout be for both teams? Let's run through both sides to see who the biggest risers and fallers are as we enter Week 9.

Breaking Down the Benjamin Trade

For the Panthers, it would seem a stagnant offense didn't really do itself any favors by jettisoning it's leading receiver in yardage (475 yards, two TD), so figure Devin Funchess, who is more or less a Benjamin clone to get the bulk of the newly available targets. Funchess is on pace for about 700 yards and six TD, but has a chance now to potentially push those toward the 1,000/10 mark, assuming Cam Newton can find a consistent rhythm.

The Panthers also want to get speedster rookie Curtis Samuel involved, but I wouldn't expect much immediate fantasy impact there. You can also expect Greg Olsen to get an even heftier share of targets once he returns, possibly in the month of November. Ed Dickson is an unexciting TE2 whose target share shouldn't increase substantially.

As for Buffalo, they needed an injection of life at the WR position, badly, despite their unexpected hot start. Their top two pass catchers are LeSean McCoy, and a TE who's been out the past two games. Ugh. Jordan Mathews has been a no-show and while Andre Holmes is a nice red-zone target, it seems he's literally invisible the rest of the time.

There's no doubt that Benjamin is going to consume targets from Tyrod Taylor, so even if he doesn't catch fire and it takes them a minute to get in sync, sheer volume alone now put Benjamin in the WR1 conversation. They even tried to rush him into action this past Thursday vs. the Jets, and just the fact they're even contemplating rushing him into a game after just a few days with the playbook already means Sean McDermott is chomping at the bit to get Benjamin on the field and pepper him with targets.

Buy now. Sorry if you were hoping for Zay Jones or Deonte Thompson (who had an impressive debut and Thursday night performance after being picked up off Chicago's scrap heap) to provide consistent returns if you have an exceptionally deep roster. Benjamin immediately eats into their targets and renders both unstartable in the majority of re-draft leagues.

Benjamin has an impressive 19.1 target rate season-to-date, but not so overwhelming as to not spread the difference around to the remaining Panther receivers. I would guess Funchess will be the prime recipient of the increased targets.

Losing Benjamin could provide an immediate hit to Cam Newton's fantasy productivity, but that should be more than leveled out with Greg Olsen's return. As for Tyrod Taylor, he and the Bills' other WRs actually showed signs of life sans Benjamin on Thursday vs. the Jets, so maybe now is the time to buy low if you had Taylor stashed or had been ignoring him on the waiver wire (and you had been).

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