RADIO
Welcome to the second part of my analysis of the first round of the MLB draft! Yesterday we went over picks 11-30, and today we will look at the top 10 players who went off the board on Monday.
The top of this list seems to have it all. There’s your risky but exciting high school youngsters, your less risky and closer-to-the-majors college bats and arms and . . . whatever it is that Brendan McKay is. The most interesting player in the draft? That’s probably the best way to describe him.
To be clear, these prospects are generally going to be only for those of you in deeper dynasty leagues. Guys looking for players to impact this season should check out my weekly Top 30 prospect rankings about MLB-ready prospects, because you will find none here. But these guys are the next generation of prospect talent, and should be interesting for those of you in leagues where you can afford to be really patient.
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MLB Draft Prospects: 1 - 10
1. Minnesota Twins: Royce Lewis (SS, JSerra Catholic HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2021
For the second straight season, the top high school bat was selected No. 1 overall. This time, it was toolsy shortstop/outfielder Royce Lewis. Lewis is a near carbon-copy to last year’s top selection, outfielder Mickey Moniak. Both show the potential for raw power, but are more regarded for their hit tool right now. Both are fast and agile defenders, and they’re both similar sizes. The only differences being that Lewis is slightly faster, Moniak is a better defender and Lewis is a shortstop . . . for now.
The Twins selected him to play up the middle, but whether that’s in center field or at shortstop remains the question. They will initially try him out at shortstop and shift him to the outfield if he can’t handle the middle-infield. Fantasy owners interesting in nabbing Lewis are looking a guy with a future leadoff hitter profile: a great hit tool and plus-plus speed. There may be some raw power to come in his frame, but 20 homers will probably be his limit. He is a worthy own in deep leagues and could be a solid piece once he concludes his development through the minors in four to five years.
2. Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene (SP, Notre Dame HS)
Age: 17
ETA: 2022
I imagine the Reds’ draft room could hardly contain their excitement when the Twins passed on Greene. The team picking second landed the consensus top player in the draft, a 17-year-old who has already touched triple-digits routinely. As is often the case with someone who throws that hard, his secondary stuff is a bit lacking, but Greene brings an interesting trait to his profile that helps him stand out from others. He has some of the best control in the draft class. There is no doubt this is a special talent.
Asking dynasty owners to wait on high school pitchers is a tall task, but few pitchers have come along in the minors like Greene in a while. His combination of stuff and command is matched by few, and most scouts believe he has the potential to be a generational talent in the majors. If he can further develop his slider and turn his changeup from an average to above-average pitch, he could be in the majors as the next ace of the Reds, and of your dynasty team.
3. San Diego Padres: MacKenzie Gore (SP, Whiteville HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2022
Greene was the consensus top prospect in baseball, but Gore was right behind him as far as high school pitchers were concerned. His numbers in high school were truly ridiculous, as he posted a 0.08 ERA (that is correct) with a 12-1 record and 174 punchouts in 83.1 innings of work. There are some who view him as a better pitcher right now than Greene, even if he can’t quite match Greene’s upside. He has a complete repertoire with two plus and two above-average pitches to go along with promising control of all four offerings.
Like the Reds, the Padres were likely ecstatic to see Gore land in their lap on draft day, and dynasty owners should be happy to get an opportunity to own Gore. He is as promising a pitching prospect, if not more so than last season’s top high school arm Jason Groome. Gore has the chance to be a really special pitcher, and solidify a spot next to Anderson Espinoza as one of the most dominant one-two combinations in baseball. He warrants an own in any deep dynasty league.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: Brendan McKay (1B/SP, Louisville)
Age: 21
ETA: 2021
This is quite possibly one of the most puzzling picks to evaluate. The Rays have stated they intend to use McKay as both a pitcher and hitter throughout the minors unless one skill vastly surpasses the other. As a hitter, he shows a disciplined approach and one of the quickest, most powerful bats in college baseball. He could be a middle-of-the-order power threat with the chance to bat over .300 with 20-30 home runs per season. On the mound, he has pinpoint command of a solid repertoire that features a plus curveball, low-mid-90s fastball and a changeup that has shown promising signs of eventually becoming a plus pitch. He could be a future No. 2 starter in the majors. So what will happen to him?
Who knows. If he somehow becomes the first true two-way player since Babe Ruth to serve as both a hitter and a pitcher in the same season, I guess he would be eligible as both a pitcher and a first baseman (or outfielder) and you’d have to switch the position when he takes the hill. Personally, I really want to see it work because I think it would give baseball one of the most exciting players to watch in pro sports. I don’t know if it will, but owners need to view him as a high floor guy because scouts seem to be nearly unanimous in believing that he is solid enough on the bump and at the dish to reach the majors in whatever capacity proves to be his future role. His ETA is a little further back for a college player, but if this two-way player business is going to work, he will need a little extra time to make it work.
5. Atlanta Braves: Kyle Wright (SP, Vanderbilt)
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
Considered for a long time to be the eventual 1-1 player, Wright slipped to fifth in the draft after McKay edged him out near the end of the season for the title of top college pitcher. But don’t let that fool you, Wright has some electric stuff and should still be considered a true top pitching prospect to own. He has a plus fastball and three above-average offerings to accompany solid command. And standing at 6-foot-4 and operating only as a pitcher — unlike someone (see McKay, Brendan) — he has plenty of upside remaining in his profile.
Heading to Atlanta, he will encounter a regime that promotes developing top-tier pitchers. It’s very possible that even now in a system containing the game’s best pitching depth, he is the best guy available. And with several years of college experience pitching in the SEC, he may not be too far off from reaching the majors, and could take the Carson Fulmer route and reach the majors a year after being drafted. I think the Braves will take their time a bit with Wright, but don’t be shocked if he gets promoted by the end of 2018 as a reliever or possible spot starter. And with the upside of a future top-of-the-rotation arm, Wright absolutely warrants ownership in deep dynasty leagues.
6. Oakland Athletics: Austin Beck (OF, North Davidson HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2022
Lewis may have been the most exciting high school bat available, but Beck is probably the most well-rounded. He not only possesses a quick bat with the ability to make consistent contact, but he also has shown above-average power and speed already, while playing solid above-average defense in the outfield. There are concerns about his ability to hit with a wooden bat, and he has shown issues against higher quality opponents, but if he can get it going, he could quickly turn into one of the game’s top prospects.
For dynasty owners, Lewis is probably the second-safest high school bat to own (behind Nick Pratto) and Beck has the second-highest upside (behind Jordon Adell). The concerns about Beck are too prominent to ignore, but neither is his demonstrated power/speed combination. There is a chance he emerges as a future 20/20 hitter in the majors, and that upside makes him extremely promising from a fantasy perspective. He has enough upside, in my opinion, to justify taking the risk on him in deeper dynasty leagues.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith (1B, Virginia)
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
We are going from a risky bat to a very safe bat. Smith put on quite a show in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in college baseball, posting one more home run (13) than strikeouts (12). He also took a ton of walks (38) and hit a robust .342 as a junior at the University of Virginia. And given a combination of bat speed, consistent contact and power, it is no wonder he was considered by many to be the top college bat in the draft.
The first base tag kind of hurts his upside a bit, but if he can continue to build on that power and emerge as a 25-30 homer threat like some believe him to be, he could make the role work in fantasy leagues. And with his advanced approach and experience in the ACC — the toughest college baseball conference — he could be a quick riser to the majors.
8. Philadelphia Phillies: Adam Haseley (OF, Virginia)
Age: 21
ETA: 2019
We already talked about the best two-way college player in the draft, now it’s time to talk about the second best. On the mound, Haseley was UVA’s best starting pitcher. He was also their best hitter. Though his teammate Smith is regarded as the better hitter, the numbers point more in Haseley’s favor, as he led the Cavaliers in all triple-slash categories (.390/.491/.659), home runs (14) and still only struck out 21 times in 58 games. And now that he’s going to become a full-time hitter, he could improve across the board in all areas.
Scouts believe Haseley has more raw power than game power right now, and that he still needs to focus more on pulling the ball for home runs. With that said, they believe that with his raw power and speed, he could develop into a 20/20 player down the road with a chance to bat over .290. He might need a slight bit more time to develop than Smith, but they may still debut in the same season given both their advanced approaches and top-tier opponents in 2017.
9. Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura (2B, California - Irvine)
Age: 20
ETA: 2021
Hiura played all of 2017 with an arm that needed Tommy John surgery, but still managed to play DH all season long for his team. Oh, and did I mention that he posted a .442/.567/.693 slash line with eight home runs and played in every game for his team. After he signs, he will likely have the surgery which will put him on the shelf for a little while, but don’t let that dissuade you from owning him.
Despite playing in a weaker conference in the Big West, Hiura was still regarded as having the best hit tool of any college bat, and evaluators don’t expect that to change even after the surgery. The biggest mystery out of the surgery will be what position he plays as he is questionable at nearly every position he plays, leading some to believe left field will be his future home. But owners should view Hiura as a future high on-base, high batting average guy with the chance to hit 15-20 home runs per season. Expect to wait a little longer on him given that he will likely not make his pro debut until the middle of 2018, but be prepared for him to be a potential breakout prospect when he finally gets the chance to play again.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell (OF, Ballard HS)
Age: 18
ETA: 2023
Remember when I said Beck was the second-highest upside high school bat in the draft? Well here’s the first. Adell has immense power (he led all high school batters with 25 home runs) and explosive speed on the basepaths. He comes with a lot of risk, as strikeout issues have plagued him throughout his career. And while it was probably not a great pick for the Angels who need players close to the majors to help Mike Trout and without much risk (I think Evan White would have been the perfect pick for them), he is still an exciting prospect to own in dynasty leagues.
He swings and misses too much right now, but if something clicks for him and he figures out how to make more contact without sacrificing power, he could find his name near the top of Top 100 prospect lists across the country. Adell is almost exactly like Lewis Brinson: a big high school outfielder with raw talent, but the chance to be a 25/25 or even a 30/30 hitter. If you’re the kind of fantasy owner who likes to take risks with potentially high payouts, there’s no better prospect to own than Adell.
