X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 4: Buy or Sell?

We’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Last year we built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days.  The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here. With our sample size being so small this early in the season though, we will look at the difference between pitchers' final 2016 K-Rate and their current K-Rate through two to three starts.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.  By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

K-Rate Risers

Dan Straily, Miami Marlins

2016 K-Rate: 20.5%, 2017 K-Rate: 28.9%

The 2016 season was a huge revival season for Dan Straily. In 2015, he pitched mostly in the minors with the Astros, and knew a change needed to be made. In his first and only season with the Reds he threw 191 1/3 innings over 34 appearances (31 starts), with a 3.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He won 14 games, and notched 20 quality starts which placed him in the top-20 among all starters. He picked up right where he left off this season, with a 3.92 ERA after four starts and a 10.45 K/9 rate. His last start was an impressive seven-inning, 14 strikeout performance.

Straily credits his career revival to Driveline Baseball, a data-driven baseball performance startup that has worked with him the past two offseasons. He worked on building up his shoulder strength by using weighted baseballs, which has not only helped his velocity but also has shortened the recovery period in between starts. You may be skeptical, but looking at how Straily has pitched the program seems to be doing wonders for his career. While his .217 BABIP may suggest he has gotten a bit lucky this season, his FIP/xFIP of 3.99/3.74 support his current ERA. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is at a career-high 12.2% right now, and his contact rate is at its lowest point since 2014.

His career average for K/9 is 7.68, so while I don’t believe in his big K/9 jump I do believe he will be an effective fantasy pitcher this season. I am not buying his rising strikeout rate, but if you’re looking for a pitcher who can rack up quality starts Straily can be had for cheap and be a solid back-end pitcher.

Verdict: Buy

 

Wade Miley, Baltimore Orioles

2016 K-Rate:19.3%, 2017 K-Rate: 31.4%

Wade Miley has been a workhorse since 2012, averaging 31 starts and 192 innings pitched per season. The innings are great, but the career 4.13 ERA and 1.34 WHIP make fantasy owners want to look in another direction. However, ever since he got to Baltimore he’s been putting up some improved numbers. He made 11 starts with the O’s after being traded from the Mariners, and although he put up a 6.17 ERA his BABIP was at .389 (career .306 BABIP) and his FIP/xFIP were 3.79/3.34 which suggest he got very unlucky.

This season the exact opposite has happened. His FIP/xFIP are in the same range at 3.24/3.36, but his BABIP is down to .189 and his ERA is at 2.08. It is surprising his WHIP is 1.00, considering he is walking 4.85 hitters per nine innings this season. After posting a 9.17 K/9 after the trade last season (career 7.16 K/9), that rate is up to 11.08 this season. He has held hitters to a .138 batting average against, and has increased his soft contact rate to a career-high 20.0%. His contact rates and SwStr% are all in line with his career norms, and his pitch velocities/movements are all similar, so this seems like simply a hot stretch of games for the veteran arm.

He has pitched better in Baltimore, but nothing in his profile suggests any changes in his approach. Enjoy Miley while he’s pitching well, but there is definitely going to be some regression here. He has shown in the past he can pitch 200 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, so he still does have value, but I would be looking to sell high.

Verdict: Sell

 

 

K-Rate Fallers

Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals

2016 K-Rate: 25.7%, 2017 K-Rate: 18.6%

After beginning last season in the bullpen, Danny Duffy impressed enough to regain a spot in the starting rotation. He was extremely impressive until late in the season, when he faltered down the stretch likely due to fatigue after throwing a career-high 179 2/3 innings. If you remove his September starts, he held a 3.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and an elite 4.92 K/BB ratio over 125 2/3 innings. The strikeouts and elite control are things we hadn’t seen from Duffy in the majors until last season, though his minor league stats show he always had that in him somewhere.

Expectations were high for Duffy heading into this season, and while his current 2.81 ERA is great there are some underlying concerns. His strikeout and walk rates have gone back to his pre-2016 rates; his K/9 is down to 6.75 and his BB/9 are up to 3.38. His BABIP is in line with his career norm, and hitters are hitting him just as well as last season. Right now Duffy just isn’t missing as many bats, though he is generating more ground balls than last season. This may be due to his pitch selection, and the loss of velocity on his fastball. He has lost nearly two MPH on his heater, which still averages 93 MPH on the gun. He is throwing his slider and changeup at a much higher rate this season, and both have done well with SwStr% of 18.3% and 16.8% respectively. He just isn’t blowing the heater past hitters like he was last season.

Duffy is certainly a different pitcher now than we saw last season. His velocity is down, his breaking pitches are getting more use, and we have had mixed results in the early goings. I think Duffy will be a good pitcher this season, but won’t provide the strikeouts fantasy owners drafted him for. If I could sell him for an ace right now, I would be looking into it.

Verdict: Sell

 

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles

2016 K-Rate: 23.0%, 2017 K-Rate: 14.2%

You wouldn’t have thought Baltimore’s opening day starter would be the problem in the rotation a month in, but here we are. Last season he posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and struck out 8.72 hitters per nine. He was pegged as a breakout candidate in fantasy circles; however his first month of the season has been poor to put it lightly. Through his first five starts, Gausman is averaging less than five innings per start with a 7.50 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. His strikeouts are down and his walk rate is way up, leaving him with an awful 1.13 K/BB ratio. Even his FIP/xFIP don’t paint much of an improved picture at 5.72/5.57 respectively.

So what’s been going wrong with Gausman, and can he correct it? His pitch usage is the same as last season, as are his velocities and movements. This season his splitter, which was arguably his best pitch last season, is getting hit hard and often. Opposing hitters have hit .407 against it this season after hitting only .203 against it last season. His slider has also seen a spike in batting average against, while his fastball has remained similar. Point being, hitters are waiting on his 99 MPH heaters to zip by while they sit on his breaking stuff. Coming through the Baltimore system he was known for his heater, but did not have a strong repertoire of secondary pitches. Left-handed hitters hit only .231/.272/.387 off of him last season, and are now hitting .350/.447/.475 against him this season.

His stuff is noticeably off right now, but it seems like this is more of a poor stretch than an extremely large step back for the young pitcher. Right now Gausman is the definition of a buy-low pitcher. Better times are ahead for him, though it remains to be seen how long this funk lasts. Buy him now if you can afford to stash him while he figures it out.

Verdict: Buy

 

More Risers and Fallers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Evan Mobley43 mins ago

Bounces Back In Game 7
Jalen Suggs60 mins ago

Fizzles On Sunday
Franz Wagner1 hour ago

Has A Rough Game 7
Paolo Banchero1 hour ago

Can't Lift Magic To A Win
Donovan Mitchell2 hours ago

Has Another Strong Showing
Steven Kwan2 hours ago

Heading To Injured List
Kyle Manzardo2 hours ago

Expected To Be Called Up Monday
Joe Musgrove2 hours ago

Placed On Injured List
Lance McCullers Jr.2 hours ago

Starting To Throw Off Mound
Evan Phillips2 hours ago

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Ryan Pepiot2 hours ago

X-Rays Negative On Ryan Pepiot's Leg
Jeimer Candelario4 hours ago

Scratched From Sunday's Lineup
Ryan Pepiot4 hours ago

Leaves Sunday’s Start Early
Evan Phillips4 hours ago

Placed On Injured List
Caio Borralho4 hours ago

Scores Knockout Win At UFC 301
Vitor Petrino4 hours ago

Suffers First Career Loss At UFC 301
MMA4 hours ago

Anthony Smith Pulls Off Upset At UFC 301
Ryne Nelson4 hours ago

Returning On Sunday
Jonathan Martinez4 hours ago

Has Winning Streak Snapped At UFC 301
Jose Aldo5 hours ago

Gets Decision Win In Return At UFC 301
Max Muncy5 hours ago

Held Out Versus Southpaw
Dak Prescott5 hours ago

Police Won't Pursue Assault Charges For Dak Prescott
Christian Yelich5 hours ago

Continues Making Progress
NFL5 hours ago

J.J. Watt Not Ruling Out A Return
Dylan Carlson5 hours ago

Activated, Starting On Sunday
Wyatt Langford5 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
Ezequiel Tovar6 hours ago

On The Bench For First Time This Year
Tyler Reddick6 hours ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At Kansas
Logan O'Hoppe6 hours ago

Out For Angels
Wenceel Pérez6 hours ago

Wenceel Perez Scratched With Illness
Kyle Manzardo6 hours ago

Could Be Called Up Soon
Michael McDowell6 hours ago

Fade Michael McDowell At Kansas This Week
Chase DeLauter6 hours ago

Has Fractured Foot
Corey Lajoie6 hours ago

Corey LaJoie Could Compete For A Kansas Top-20 Finish
Steven Kwan6 hours ago

Absent From Sunday's Lineup
Anthony Rizzo6 hours ago

Resting Against Left-Hander
Noah Gragson7 hours ago

Is Noah Gragson Worth Rostering At Kansas?
Ty Gibbs7 hours ago

Will Start Sixth At Kansas
William Byron7 hours ago

Is A Must-Play For Kansas Cash Games
Kyle Busch8 hours ago

Is An Ideal Tournament Play For Kansas
Kyle Larson10 hours ago

The Heavy Favorite To Win At Kansas
Denny Hamlin10 hours ago

Looking For Another Win At Kansas
Ross Chastain10 hours ago

Qualifies On The Front Row At Kansas
Martin Truex Jr10 hours ago

. A Quiet Contender At Kansas
Ryan Blaney10 hours ago

Has Major Place-Differential Upside At Kansas
NASCAR11 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Qualifies 23rd At Kansas
Alex Bowman11 hours ago

Has Top-10 Potential At Kansas
Carson Hocevar11 hours ago

A Good Value DFS Play At Kansas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr11 hours ago

. Has Sleeper Potential At Kansas
Austin Dillon11 hours ago

Always A Sleeper At Kansas
Todd Gilliland11 hours ago

An Interesting DFS Play At Kansas
Josh Berry13 hours ago

Around Middle Of The Pack For Sunday
Joey Logano13 hours ago

Tapers Off Speed-Wise At Kansas
NASCAR13 hours ago

Derek Knaus Anchors Rear Of The Field At Kansas
Jarrett Allen20 hours ago

On The Injury Report Again For Sunday
Jamal Murray20 hours ago

Goes Cold In Game 1
Nikola Jokic20 hours ago

Struggles Shooting On Saturday
Anthony Edwards20 hours ago

Dominant In Game 1
Maxi Kleber1 day ago

Out Indefinitely
Lonzo Ball1 day ago

Exercises Option For 2024-25
Evan Mobley2 days ago

Fizzles Offensively In Game 6
Darius Garland2 days ago

Plays Well On Friday Night
Donovan Mitchell2 days ago

Explodes Offensively In Game 6
NYI2 days ago

Lou Lamoriello, Patrick Roy To Return Next Season
Mason Marchment2 days ago

A No-Go For Friday
Terance Mann2 days ago

Active At Shootaround
Arturs Silovs2 days ago

Expected To Go Again Friday
Adin Hill2 days ago

Back In Goal Friday
Los Angeles Lakers2 days ago

Darvin Ham Dismissed As Lakers Head Coach
Auston Matthews2 days ago

Uncertain For Game 7
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

No Restrictions For Aaron Rodgers During Offseason Workouts
Mac Jones2 days ago

Jaguars Don't Pick Up Mac Jones' Fifth-Year Option
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Has A Chance To Start Immediately
Chase Claypool2 days ago

Bills Sign Chase Claypool
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Has A Chance To Become A Champion
Alexandre Pantoja2 days ago

Looks To Defend Flyweight Title
Jarrett Allen2 days ago

Spotted At Shootaround On Friday
Gary Harris2 days ago

Remains Game-Time Decision
Josh Hart2 days ago

Shines Again In Game 6 Victory
Michel Pereira2 days ago

Ihor Potieria Faces Michel Pereira On UFC 301
Joel Embiid2 days ago

Fouls Out With Big Stat Line In Losing Effort
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Signing One-Year Deal With Dolphins
Michel Pereira2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak To Eight
Paul Craig2 days ago

Looking To Rebound At UFC 301
Jalen Brunson2 days ago

Leads Knicks To Series Win Over 76ers
DJ Chark Jr.3 days ago

Signs With Chargers
Kadarius Toney3 days ago

Chiefs Decline Kadarius Toney's Fifth-Year Option
Steven Stamkos3 days ago

Begins Contract Talks With Lightning
Brett Pesce3 days ago

A Potential Option For Round 2
Sam Bennett3 days ago

Should Be Good For Round 2
Adam Fox3 days ago

Doesn't Skate Again On Thursday
Luke Schenn3 days ago

Hopeful For Game 6
Auston Matthews3 days ago

Out For Game 6
Justin Fields3 days ago

Steelers Decline Fifth-Year Option On Justin Fields
Najee Harris3 days ago

Fifth-Year Option On Najee Harris Declined By Steelers
JuJu Smith-Schuster3 days ago

Could Be On His Way Out
Khalil Herbert3 days ago

A Trade Candidate?
T.J. Hockenson3 days ago

Ahead Of Schedule In His Rehab
Nick Chubb3 days ago

"Progressing Nicely"
Caio Borralho3 days ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC 301
Vitor Petrino3 days ago

Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC 301
Anthony Smith3 days ago

A Massive Underdog At UFC 301
Jonathan Martinez3 days ago

Faces A Legend At UFC 301
Jose Aldo3 days ago

Returns At UFC 301
New York Giants4 days ago

Giants Could Sign A Veteran Running Back
Dallas Cowboys4 days ago

Trevon Diggs Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Daniel Jones4 days ago

Has Been Cutting, Plans To Be Ready For Camp
Malik Nabers4 days ago

To Be No. 1 Receiver Immediately
Trey Lance4 days ago

Cowboys To Decline Trey Lance's Fifth-Year Option
Tyler Boyd4 days ago

To Meet With Chargers, Titans
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Volatile Option For CJ Cup
Seamus Power4 days ago

Rounding Into Form Ahead of CJ Cup
Davis Thompson4 days ago

A Player To Watch At CJ Cup
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Lacks Upside At TPC Craig Ranch
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Dangerous Pick For CJ Cup
Tom Hoge4 days ago

Seeking Second Tour Victory At CJ Cup
Filip Forsberg5 days ago

Collects Two Apples In Game 5 Win
Juuse Saros5 days ago

Comes Through For Predators In Game 5
Nathan MacKinnon5 days ago

Posts Two More Points In Series-Clinching Win
Mikko Rantanen5 days ago

Helps Finish Off Jets With Three Points
Joseph Woll5 days ago

Excellent In Series-Saving Win
Matthew Knies5 days ago

Bangs In Overtime Winner In Game 5
Evgeny Kuznetsov5 days ago

Posts Goal And Assist In Game 5
Seth Jarvis5 days ago

Puts Up Three Points In Series-Winning Game
Mark Hubbard5 days ago

Will Return To Mediocrity At TPC Craig Ranch
Doug Ghim5 days ago

Putting History In Texas Makes Him A Hard Sell
Nate Lashley5 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Byron Nelson
Kevin Yu5 days ago

A Flier Pick With Likeable Upside At Byron Nelson
Andrew Novak5 days ago

Playing Well Heading To TPC Craig Ranch
Patrick Rodgers5 days ago

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Luke List5 days ago

In Solid Form Heading To TPC Craig Ranch
Tom Kim5 days ago

A Safe Option With A Questionable Ceiling At Byron Nelson
Taylor Montgomery5 days ago

Searching For Form At TPC Craig Ranch
Jason Day5 days ago

To Defend Title At TPC Craig Ranch
Adam Scott5 days ago

Returns To Action At TPC Craig Ranch
PGA5 days ago

Sungjae Im As Good Of A Pick As Any At TPC Craig Ranch
PGA5 days ago

Alex Noren Looks To Take Another Step At TPC Craig Ranch
Mackenzie Hughes5 days ago

Brings Hot Putter To TPC Craig Ranch
Cole Perfetti5 days ago

To Make NHL Postseason Debut Tuesday
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

Trendy Si Woo Kim Heads To Byron Nelson
Connor Hellebuyck5 days ago

Looking To Get Right Tuesday
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Colston Loveland - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Prospects: Top 30 Rankings Big Board - An Early Look

Alright, team, soon we'll be cruising into the sunny days of summer, and it’s prime time to lay down my Top 30 Big Board for the 2025 NFL Draft. For all you draft junkies who’ve been riding shotgun with me through the mock drafts and scouting reports this season—a huge shoutout to you! Now that... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Blake Corum

Leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft, the widespread belief was that Jim Harbaugh would draft and reunite with his former Michigan running back Blake Corum. Instead, Harbaugh opted for a different Wolverine, linebacker Junior Colson, in the third round. Corum will at least play in the same stadium as his former mentor. The Rams... Read More


Bo Nix - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight: Bo Nix

The first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft were heavy on the quarterbacks as six players heard their names called. Of those 12, former Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix was the final selected when the Broncos took him at pick 12. Will Bo Nix start for the Broncos in 2024? What is the fantasy... Read More


Odell Beckham Jr. Signs With Miami Dolphins: 2024 Fantasy Football Impact

Early during the day on Friday, Odell Beckham Jr. signed a one-year contract with the Miami Dolphins. Sources say the deal is worth $3 million with incentives that can push Beckham's financial gains to $8.25 million for the 2024 NFL season. The former 12th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft has been a bit... Read More


Rome Odunze - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Rookie Draft Mock 2024 (Superflex)

Traditionally, quarterbacks go at the top of Superflex dynasty drafts. That is true in startups and rookie-only drafts. However, that rule has faltered over the past two years. The 2022 NFL Draft included zero high-end quarterback prospects, leading to a running back (Breece Hall) landing at 1.01. The next year was different. We had a... Read More


The Fastest Players In The NFL: Who Finished At The Top Last Season?

The 2024 NFL offseason continues to pass by. With several big free agents signing with new teams, exciting rookies being drafted, and training camp just a couple of months away, we're already looking ahead to 2024 Fantasy Football. RotoBaller's David Rispoli digs into some of the NFL's fastest players using NextGen Stats. Which game-breakers were... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 6

What a week of picking outcomes. I went 4-0 on point spreads and 0-4 on over/unders. One thing that we clearly saw in Week 5: the top four teams in the league put a real beat-down on the four worst teams in the league, and the distinction between those two groups in the 2024 UFL... Read More


Frank Gore Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Undrafted Running Back Rookie Sleepers

Last month's NFL Draft saw a number of really good players left on the board after the seven rounds were over. Some of those players are likely going to make it onto NFL rosters in 2024 as undrafted free agents. Some notable recent running backs who went undrafted include three players who saw extensive playing... Read More


Ezekiel Elliott - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers, Undervalued for 2024

The calendar has flipped, and that means we are one step closer to fantasy football drafts. It has surely been a wild offseason that featured many star players changing teams, including at the running back position. Players like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, and Tony Pollard all changed teams this offseason. As a result, we could see some ADP changes at the top of... Read More


Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

When Should I Pick Michael Penix Jr. In Rookie Drafts? Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

The Atlanta Falcons stunned the football world when they selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It was a head-scratching selection considering Atlanta just inked quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in free agency. Dynasty managers now have to figure out when to select Penix... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

Week 5 of UFL action was dominated by the top teams, as all four favorites covered their respective spreads. Birmingham, St. Louis, and Michigan all won in convincing blowouts while delivering some impressive fantasy performances along the way. It might be a lot of the same in Week 6. Birmingham (5-0) takes on Memphis (1-4)... Read More


Quarterback Winners and Losers for 2024 Fantasy Football

With the 2024 NFL Draft officially in the books, we're looking ahead to which Quarterbacks exit the draft as the biggest winners and losers for 2024 Fantasy Football. RotoBaller's David Rispoli digs into some of the notable changes at the Quarterback position following the 2024 NFL Draft. Which QBs are the biggest winners and losers... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 6

Welcome to Week 6 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! We have a fun football weekend on tap, and there are many different routes we can take to construct lineups for DraftKings contests. Adrian Martinez and the Birmingham Stallions will take their 5-0 record on the road against the Memphis Showboats, where they're massive 11.5-point... Read More