April 21, 2017

Travis Rosen breaks down his rankings of the top rookies entering the NFL Draft in 2017 to assess their fantasy football value in re-draft or single-season leagues.

Drafting rookies in your FFL is always a dicey proposition. Trying to figure out your rookie draft board before they've even been drafted by their respective NFL teams is a crap-shoot at best. But maybe your draft is absurdly early, or maybe you're the type of franchise owner who wants all the opinions you can digest, as early as possible.

Either way, here we go with a way-too-early 2017 rookie rankings list. In a few weeks, we'll see how these rankings may change according to each player's eventual landing spot in the NFL.

Note: these rankings are applicable to all single season re-draft league types, not dynasty or keeper leagues.

NFL Rookie Rankings

1. Leonard Fournette (RB, LSU)

Some intrepid drafters (like me) were prescient enough to snag Ezekiel Elliott in the 1st round of their fantasy draft last year. I'm not sure there's a rookie who's a slam dunk to draft with your first round pick, but Fournette is close. Nearly every mock draft out there has Fournette going 4th to Jacksonville, and it’s easy to see why. With neither TJ Yeldon or Chris Ivory able to crack 4.0 ypc or 500 rushing yards, the Jags’ anemic rushing attack needs a huge bolster, and Fournette fits the bill. Sure there are lingering questions of injury proneness and toughness, but there’s more potential reward than risk here with Fournette. With Chris Ivory and his bloated physique (and even more bloated contract) likely to be sent packing, there's little fear of goal-line vulture carries if Fournette gets rolling. As for PPR leagues, he was never a prolific pass-catcher at LSU, but his hands aren’t bad either. Yeldon had 50 catches for the Jags last year, so if Fournette is the bell-cow back, expect him to haul in a decent number of receptions too.

12-team draft projection: Early-mid 2d

2. Christian McCaffrey (RB, Stanford)

This was a tough call. My heart definitely wanted me to go with Dalvin Cook here, who is unmistakably the most explosive back in the draft (just ask any Miami Hurricanes fan who isn’t bent on sour grapes). But in looking at where both Cook and McCaffrey might end up, there’s an awful lot of ambiguity with Cook, with mocks having him pegged everywhere from Tampa Bay to KC. However with McCaffrey, there’s growing consensus that Ron Rivera will snatch him up at #8 for Carolina, and it’s a great fit. With Jonathan Stewart’s rapidly declining production, McCaffrey could be just what Cam Newton and Carolina need to breathe life into their offense that took a shocking nose-dive in productivity in 2016. For you PPR folks, he can catch the ball too, racking up 82 catches his last 2 years at Stanford. McCaffrey raised eyebrows with skipping Stanford’s bowl game and then most recently refusing private workouts. But maybe the latter means he already knows where he’s going? Like say, Charlotte?

12-team draft projection: Late 2d

3. Dalvin Cook (RB, FSU)

As I alluded to in my McCaffrey recommendation, Dalvin Cook is the most explosive, purely talented RB in this draft. The problem is, where is he going to end up? Yea, it matters. Just ask Derrick Henry owners hoping and praying all last season for a DeMarco Murray ankle turn. If Cook ends up in say KC or with the Giants, that could be a dream scenario, as either of those landing spots would offer a great chance to be a plug-and-play high volume starter. If however he ended up in Tampa Bay, it’s a bit murkier, as although Doug Martin had a disastrous 2016, there’s still hope he can return to his 2015 form. So you’d have one-hell of a fun to watch 2-headed monster if you’re a Bucs fan, but a potential Murray/Henry type nightmare if you’re a fantasy owner. Still, if there’s any question about Cook’s talent, pop in a 2016 highlight tape, where Cook excelled against the best competition, as he averaged a ridiculous 7.3 YPC against Michigan in the Orange Bowl and a ludicrous 8.9 YPC against eventual National Champion Clemson.

12-team draft projection: Late 2nd/early 3d

4. Mike Williams (WR, Clemson)

Oh boy, do I hate drafting rookie WRs early. For every Michael Thomas there are how many Laquon Treadwells and Josh Doctsons? But if you’re going to roll the dice on a rookie WR, here’s your guy. With no doubt about his physical attributes, Williams also showed the ability to step up against the best competition, making big plays against Ohio State and Alabama in the College Football Playoffs (Isn’t it stupid we only just started having those?) At the combine he ripped off a sub 4.5 40 at 6’4” 218 lbs. That’s scary. Now the all important question - where might he end up? Most mocks can’t seem to agree on where Williams is heading. If he ended up in Buffalo alongside other former Clemson great Sammy Watkins, that could be something to watch.

12-team draft projection: 5th-6th

5. Joe Mixon (RB, Oklahoma)

Joe Mixon might make me look very, very dumb for putting a WR above him in these rankings, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if that's how it plays out. An explosive runner at 6’1” 226 lbs, Mixon was undoubtedly the more dangerous back over his teammate Samaje Perine at Oklahoma, although a lot of mocks have Perine going before Mixon. And that’s for good reason. Mixon had some ugly off-field entanglements, including assaulting a woman on tape. That sort of thing has, rightfully, become fairly toxic in today’s NFL. But unless NFL execs get him in a room and detect a guy who’s beyond reach as far as staying out of trouble, someone is going to take a chance on Mixon as their potential franchise back, and probably sooner than a lot of the mock draft guys think. Green Bay at 29 could be a very intriguing landing spot.

12-team draft projection: 6th-7th

6. Corey Davis (WR, Western Michigan)

If there’s one thing that makes me antsier than drafting rookie WRs early, it’s rookie WR who went against questionable competition in college. But Davis transcends that mold, and the NFL is littered with thriving mid-major and below WRs. Davis has good size and respectable speed and projects as a plug-and-play #2 WR at worst. He accommodated himself well against Wisconsin in the bowl game despite his team being physically overmatched and turned in a 4.48 40 at 6’3” 209 lbs and the Combine. Baltimore could very well snatch him up at 16 and Joe Flacco desperately needs a reliable target. Davis could foot the bill and turn in decent numbers right off the bat, and unlike a Breshad Perriman, a project based on speed alone, Davis is polished and ready to contribute.

12-team draft projection: 8th-9th

7. Jeremy McNichols (RB, Boise St.)

Boise St. isn’t exactly known as pipeline to the NFL for RBs, but with Jay Ajayi bursting on the scene for the Dolphins last year, there’s another guy who put up eye-popping numbers on the blue turf you might not have heard of. McNichols was a workhorse back in every sense of the word, racking up over 1700 yards and 23 TDs on the ground, while throwing in another 474 receiving yards with 4 catching TDs for good measure. He acquitted himself well at the combine, and physically is in the Doug Martin mold, lower to the ground at 5’9” but strong and well built, with the fluidity to contribute in the passing game and make guys miss. No, he’s doesn’t have the pure upside of Joe Mixon, but he just may be a safer bet for a team looking for a starting back in this draft.

12-team draft projection: 10th-12th

8. David Njoku (TE, Miami)

Whoa whoa.. Hometown bump much? Well yes, but there’s good reason why. Nearly every mock draft in the world has Alabama’s OJ Howard going well before Njoku in the draft and while Howard may prove to be a safer plug-and-play in all aspects of the game as an NFL TE, Njoku was just starting to show the country what he’s capable of as a pass-catcher and red zone target, and I think his immediate fantasy upside may be bigger. While Howard in my mind will be a dependable, highly productive NFL TE, Njoku is a match-up nightmare who may be capable of putting up heyday-era Julius Thomas numbers right off the bat. If he’s there for Matt Stafford and the Lions at 21, big numbers could be in the offing.

12-team draft projection: 10th-12th

9. John Ross (WR, Washington)

As I talked about earlier, speed-demon WRs who project as “projects” in the NFL, especially ones slight of build, have a tendency to be fantasy heartbreakers. Tavon Austin, anyone? Still, Washington's John Ross is an intriguing player and, past failures aside, NFL GMs will always give elite speed a 1st round chance, so it’s not like he won’t have the opportunity. What may make prospective fantasy owners more hopeful is that he’s a little more physically stout than Austin. There’s no question about his ridiculous production for the surprise Huskies, who Ross helped to put up crazy yards and points until they ran into the buzzsaw that was Alabama, as will happen. Ross’s 17 TDs in 2016 can’t be ignored, but neither can his sub-190 lb. stature.

12-team draft projection: 12th-14th

10. Samaje Perine (RB, Oklahoma)

Now comes the boring “safe” RB pick that doesn’t really get anyone excited, but may quietly find his way to a productive fantasy season. Perine is a big, powerful back… and, well… that’s about it. Don’t expect him to dazzle anyone with anything. But he’ll run hard and drag tacklers, and sometimes, that’s more than enough. He could emerge as a 20-carry, goal-line back right off the bat, and that’s fantasy gold. What’s troubling is that Perine’s productivity actually declined precipitously every year at Oklahoma, but not to the point where he wasn’t still very productive, racking up over 1,000 yards and 12 TD while splitting duties with Joe Mixon in 2016. I wouldn't necessarily count on him as one of your starting backs to begin the season, unless he ends up on a RB-hungry team where he's the de facto starter.

12-team draft projection: 14th-UFA

11. OJ Howard (TE, Alabama)

Staying with the “safe bet” theme, OJ Howard is likely to produce in 2017 in the right situation. Howard didn’t dazzle with crazy stats in 2016, but he has a knack for big plays in big games, and turned heads with a blazing 4.51 40 at the Combine. The reason I have Njoku a touch higher is that I could see Njoku taken as a complimentary red zone threat piece added to an already prolific offense. Howard could very well find himself in a rebuilding team/QB situation like Cleveland or with the Jets. But he could easily prove me wrong and put up big numbers from the get-go regardless of where he ends up. One could also argue he was under-utilized at Alabama, leading to a pedestrian 595 receiving yards and only 3 TD.

12-team draft projection: Late 10th-12th

12. D’Onta Foreman (RB, Texas)

How is a guy who weighs in at 248 lbs and ran for over 2000 yards for a power-5 team not at the top of every draft board for RBs? Well, a few reasons. First off, not all of that 248 was good weight, confirmed when he showed up at the Texas pro day at a noticeably slimmer 233. Secondly, you can be a behemoth back in 2017 and still find yourself down the charts looking up at guys like Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon. Just a tough year for RB competition. But Foreman could potentially be the steal of the draft, if his 4.45 40 and 33 inch vertical leap at the UT Pro Day are any indication. There’s no doubt that he’s a uniquely physically gifted RB, and NFL GMs are always enamored with big backs, but he sucks in pass-protection which could really hurt his draft stock. The best bet for Foreman is if he ends up on an NFL team that wants him to carry the rock on 1st and 2nd downs and on the goal line while not exposing his weaknesses.

12-team draft projection: UFA

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis