🖥 CYBER WEEK - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE CYBER
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

K-Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 11: Buy or Sell?

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.

Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.  Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.

 

K-Rate Risers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

Season K-Rate: 24%, Last 30 K-Rate: 33%

Many were a tad worried about deGrom earlier this season, after his fastball showed up in 2016 almost two MPH slower than last year. While he has still been extremely effective with the reduced velocity (2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), it was certainly affecting his strikeouts early in the campaign. But it seems deGrom has finally figured out how to generate the swing and misses with a tad slower fastball. Over his last three starts, he has struck out 28 in only 19 innings.

There is probably no chance that you'd be able to talk your way into acquiring deGrom in your fantasy league due to just a few less strikeouts this early into the season. But at least this uptick in his K rate can put his owners minds to ease, and assure them to stay put with the young ace.

 

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

Season K-Rate: 24%, Last 30 K-Rate: 33%

Shoemaker is on the verge of a huge second half in 2016. He currently owns a 4.76 ERA, but his 3.42 FIP shows that his .325 BABIP and 67.2 LOB% have been rather unlucky. This season Shoemaker has allowed a career low 71.4 Contact%, while causing a career high 14.2 SwStr%. This can be attributed to a new pitch selection, which has seen a 9% decrease in fastballs, and a 13% increase in his change-up. The change-up has been Shoemaker's money pitch this season, and its 5.0 wCH value ranks top ten in the league, sandwiched between Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale.

Including a gem last night against Oakland, Shoemaker has struck out 18 batters in his last two starts, allowing only one earned run over 14 innings. Like I stated previously, Shoemaker is going to have a monster second half this season and it would behoove you to acquire him in your fantasy leagues now, especially if he is still sitting on your waiver wire.

 

K-Rate Fallers

Jaime Garcia, STL

Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 10%

Things have gotten ugly for Garcia recently. Through three starts in June, he has only totaled seven strikeouts. What is most discouraging about this stat is the fact that those three match-ups were against Houston, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, all whom are ranked top ten in the league for most strikeouts this season. His SwStr% has now dropped to 8.8, which is Garcia's lowest since 2008. If you take a look at his heatmaps for the first two months of 2016 versus his three starts in June, you will see that while the control is still there, the command is slipping.

Untitled1

Garcia is still throwing strikes (four BB allowed in last three starts), but as you can see is having trouble keeping the ball out of the middle of the strike zone compared to the first two months which saw Garcia getting the ball up and down to keep hitters off guard. This would explain why along with not racking up strike outs over his last three starts, he has also allowed 26 hits during the same stretch.

Last year, Garcia also struggled with missing bats during the first half of the season, but was able to raise it back up to his career average over the second half. This could very well be the case again in 2016, and the veteran could just be going through a little slump in June. I wouldn't be desperately looking to get rid of him in fantasy leagues yet, but at the same time, he is certainly not a pitcher I would be looking to acquire at this point.

 

 

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Season K-Rate: 19%, Last 30 K-Rate: 13%

Since returning from Tommy John surgery last season, Tanaka has seen his strike out rates slowly dwindle from his impressive 9.31 K/9 showing in his first MLB season. This season has seen his K/9 drop down to 6.60, even after a great performance yesterday against the Twins. If you look at Tanaka's pitch selection for 2016, you will see a huge change from the two previous seasons. So far this year, he has thrown his four seam fastball just 2.6% of the time, compared to 19.4% in 2015 and 25.1% in 2016. But with the drastic decrease in the fastball, has come an increase in his splitter, which he is now throwing for one-third of his pitches (well ahead of any other pitcher in the league). This would explain the large spike in his GB% which is now over 52% for the season, and could also help explain the lack of strikeouts. It seems that Tanaka has taken to a new approach on the mound, one more aligned with a ground-ball pitcher. This is made fairly obvious when comparing his pitch locations from 2014 to those in this season. Keep in mind that 32.4% of the pitches on the second heat map are splitters.

1Untitled

Generally, such a dramatic decline in a pitchers strikeout rate would have owners trying to sell before the increase in contact begins to turn into more balls landing over the fences. But in this particular case, the drop in strikeouts from Tanaka could create a very nice buy-low opportunity for the fantasy owners that are less in need of strikeouts and more in need of ERA and WHIP help. Even though it is not quite the Tanaka we were expecting after what we saw in 2014, he is finding great success with this new approach in 2016, and you can expect that to continue for the rest of the season.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tee Higgins

Back in the Concussion Protocol
Riley Leonard

Week 15 Status Uncertain Due to Knee Injury
Mike Evans

Could Return on Thursday Night
De'Von Achane

May Require Rest This Week
Daniel Jones

' Season Over With Torn Achilles
Rory McIlroy

Ends 2025 as the Year's Most Unburdened Player
Aaron Rai

Needs to Figure Out Putting Woes This Offseason
Jordan Spieth

Plays Better on Paper in 2025 Than Results Show
Shedeur Sanders

Will Start for Browns the Rest of the Season
PGA

Chris Gotterup Needs to Find Better Touch and Consistency This Offseason
Hideki Matsuyama

Ends 2025 Season With a Bookend Victory
CFB

Tennessee Fires Defensive Coordinator Tim Banks
Scottie Scheffler

Comes Up Just Shy of Hero World Challenge Victory
Jordan Poole

Remains Sidelined on Monday
Merab Dvalishvili

Drops A Decision At UFC 323
Herbert Jones

Tagged as Questionable Against Spurs
Petr Yan

Reclaims Bantamweight Title
CeeDee Lamb

Progressing Well After Concussion
Stephon Castle

has a Chance to Return on Monday
Alexandre Pantoja

Era Ends With Gruesome Injury
Joshua Van

Becomes Second-Youngest UFC Champion
Dillon Brooks

Iffy for Monday Night
Brandon Moreno

Suffers His First TKO Loss
Brandon Moreno

Tatsuro Taira Becomes First Fighter To Finish Brandon Moreno
Garrett Wilson

No Timetable Yet for Garrett Wilson's Return
Henry Cejudo

Payton Talbott Retires Henry Cejudo
Henry Cejudo

Retires After UFC 323 Loss
Jan Blachowicz

Bogdan Guskov Vs. Jan Blachowicz Ends In A Majority Draw
Jan Blachowicz

And Bogdan Guskov Fight To Majority Draw
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Could Return on Monday Night
Keegan Murray

Listed as Questionable Vs. Pacers
DK Metcalf

Spends Night in Hospital Due to Stomach Pain
CFB

Texas RB CJ Baxter Entering Transfer Portal
Mark Stone

Records Two Assists in Sunday's Win
Carter Hart

Defeats Rangers Sunday
Cutter Gauthier

Delivers Two Assists Sunday
Leo Carlsson

Nets Two Goals in Blowout Win
Logan Thompson

Posts First Shutout of the Season
Brayden Schenn

Leads Blues to Victory Sunday
Macklin Celebrini

Bags Three Points in Impressive Road Victory
Jaylen Wright

Runs Wild in Week 14 Win
Chase Brown

Scores Two Touchdowns in Week 14 Loss
Nico Collins

Leads Texans in Receiving in Sunday Night Win
San Francisco Giants

Jeff Kent Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame
Ketel Marte

Red Sox Interested in Trading for Ketel Marte
Kyle Schwarber

Pirates Make Four-Year Offer to Kyle Schwarber
Travis Etienne Jr.

Scores Two Touchdowns in Week 14
Christian Watson

Continues to Find the End Zone in Week 14
Blake Corum

Leads Rams Backfield With Phenomenal Week 14 Showing
Michael Wilson

Enjoys Heavy Involvement in Week 14
Puka Nacua

Enjoys Best Game of the Season in Rout of Cardinals
Harold Fannin Jr.

Eclipses Century Mark, Scores Touchdown Sunday
CFB

Mississippi State, Rice Accept Bowl Bids as 5-7 Teams
CFB

Auburn, Florida State, Baylor Among Teams to Decline Bowl Bids
Paul George

Available on Sunday Evening
Joel Embiid

Available Against Lakers
Lauri Markkanen

Ruled Out Versus OKC
Geno Smith

Doesn't Return to Week 14 Game Against Broncos
DK Metcalf

Totals Almost 150 Yards in Big Win Over Ravens
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active on Sunday Night
CFB

Rob Aurich Set to Become Nebraska's Defensive Coordinator
LeBron James

Available Versus Philadelphia
Geno Smith

Questionable to Return With Shoulder Injury
MON

Samuel Montembeault Ruled Out for Sunday
Carter Hart

Available Against Rangers Sunday
Ryan Leonard

to Miss "Extended Period of Time"
John Carlson

a Game-Time Decision Sunday
Jordan Kyrou

Unavailable Against Canadiens
Matt Duchene

Set to Return Against Penguins
Pyotr Kochetkov

Back for Hurricanes Sunday
Evgeni Malkin

Won't Play on Sunday
CFB

Notre Dame Opting Out of Postseason Amid College Football Playoff Exclusion
Karl-Anthony Towns

Ruled Out Against Orlando
Draymond Green

Remains on the Shelf Versus Chicago
Jimmy Butler III

Expected to Return on Sunday
Immanuel Quickley

Now Probable Versus Boston
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Will Miss First Game of the Year on Sunday
Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Probable Against Lakers
Ja Morant

Doubtful Against Portland
Robert Williams III

Now Questionable Versus Memphis
Donovan Clingan

Questionable Versus Grizzlies
CFB

Kendal Briles a Candidate for South Carolina Offensive Coordinator Job
CFB

James Madison Playoff-Bound After Duke Wins ACC Title?
CFB

Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama on College Football Playoff Bubble
CFB

Brent Pry Could Return to Virginia Tech as Defensive Coordinator
Darcy Kuemper

Ends Losing Streak With Shutout Performance
Nikolaj Ehlers

Collects Three Points in Saturday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

Ties Franchise Record With 25th Shutout
Sam Bennett

Bags Season-High Four Points Saturday
Jordan Kyrou

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Saturday
Dominic James

Hurt on Saturday
LaMelo Ball

Won't Suit Up Against Denver
Jose A. Ferrer

Mariners Acquire Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals
Harry Ford

Traded to the Nationals
Cody Bellinger

Drawing Interest From the Phillies
MacKenzie Gore

Will the Nationals Trade MacKenzie Gore?
Byron Buxton

Twins Not Planning to Trade Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton
Petr Yan

Looks To Reclaim Bantamweight Belt
Merab Dvalishvili

Set For His Fourth Title Defense
Joshua Van

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fifth Title Defense At UFC 323
Tatsuro Taira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Brandon Moreno

Searches For His Third Win In A Row
Payton Talbott

A Favorite At UFC 323
Henry Cejudo

Set For His Retirement Fight
Jan Blachowicz

Set To Open Up UFC 323 Main Card
Bogdan Guskov

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
CFB

Emmett Johnson Leaving Nebraska for 2026 NFL Draft
CFB

Jam Miller Unlikely to Play in SEC Title Game
CFB

Penn State Expected to Hire Matt Campbell from Iowa State
CFB

Arkansas Targeting Ron Roberts for Defensive Coordinator Job
Jhostynxon Garcia

Pirates Acquire Jhostynxon Garcia From Red Sox
Cody Bellinger

Yankees Pushing Hard to Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
CFB

Penn State Eyeing Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell For Coaching Vacancy
Alex Bregman

Cubs Have Renewed Interest in Alex Bregman
CFB

Billy Napier Finalizing Deal to Become James Madison's New Head Coach
CFB

Buster Faulkner Set to Become Florida's New Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP