October 3, 2015

Zach Wilkens analyzes the Week 4 NFL matchups for 2015, and provides fantasy football start/sit advice (part 1). Set your optimal lineups based on fantasy football matchups.

Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 4 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 4 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis, breaking down the later slate of games.

There are a couple important notes this week. Remember the Jets @ Dolphins game is in London at 9:30 AM EST. If guys like Chris Ivory or Eric Decker are ruled out you'll need to have them out of your lineup before then. Second, the Eagles @ Redskins game may be pushed back or played under heavy rain due to a hurricane. That could severely hurt the passing game for both teams so keep an eye out for that.

Jets @ Dolphins - Sunday 10/4 @ 9:30 AM EST

Matchups We Love:

Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets - Marshall is looking great this season. Even though the Dolphins do have a very good corner in Brent Grimes I think Marshall will have another strong game. I’m thinking Eric Decker doesn’t play this game and Ivory may not be 100%. Expect Marshall to see a lot of targets - he saw 14 last week.

Matchups We Hate:

Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins - After speculation that Darrelle Revis may move to the slot and cover Jordan Matthews last week, the Jets stuck to their normal gameplan. He stuck to the outside all game holding Nelson Agholor to no catches on two targets. That means Revis will most likely be on Matthews the most this game and not Jarvis Landry. I like what Matthews has shown so far but I can’t expect much here.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins - The Jets surprisingly struggled to stop Ryan Mathews last week, allowing him to get 128 total yards and a touchdown. Darren Sproles also scored. I’m still respecting the Jets run defense. It doesn’t help that Miller has been held to just 13 touches per game so far. He is a low-end RB2 here.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins - I wouldn’t be starting Tannehill here unless I had to. The Jets have held opposing QBs to under 10 points in all three games this season. Furthermore, Tannehill just hasn’t looked that good. He will probably turn it around but not this week.

Notable Players:

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets - Last week he was active but those who chose to start him (myself included) were extremely disappointed as he didn’t see the field. He was a full participant in practice Thursday so things are looking much better this week. Despite the presence of Ndamukong Suh the Dolphins have merely been an okay run defense. With a lot of uncertainty at the RB position outside of the top ten this year I think Ivory is an above average RB2.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins - We should expect a similar but slightly better game to Jordan Matthews last week. Landry won’t see a whole lot of Darrelle Revis playing mostly in the slot so I think he should see 6-8 catches once again. That makes him a great PPR play as usual but just an okay flex play in standard.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Dolphins - Cameron had some solid yardage in the first game but was quiet last week. The Jets have only given up 95 yards to tight ends through three games so keep expectations to a minimum here. Cameron is an okay start at best.

Devante Parker, WR, Dolphins - Parker is continuing to see increased playing time and targets. Obviously a tough matchup here but I’m continuing to monitor the situation. I still really like Parker and I think he is inching closer to a breakout week.

Jaguars @ Colts - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts - Last week I basically guaranteed a big game for Luck and it didn’t happen. I won’t go so far to say that again but it is a good matchup. Even if Luck’s issues persist he will be very startable here.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts - Hilton had a very nice 94 yards last week but was held out of the end zone once more. A touchdown is coming soon and this week is as likely as any. I definitely expect 100+ yards.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts - Moncrief has shown me everything I need to see and I think he makes a great WR2 at this point. In another good matchup I don’t see why he can’t score once again.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars - Bortles is looking better this season and he should be able to get the ball to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns without much difficulty here. I think he makes a nice QB2.

Matchups We Hate:

I wouldn’t say I hate any matchups here. There is definitely one I think will be a tough challenge and I’ll discuss that below.

Notable Players:

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars - Robinson has had one great game, one bad game and last week he was just alright with 68 yards. This week he gets a big challenge against Vontae Davis. I think at the very least with the number of targets he should see he will come out of this one alright once again. It’s worth noting that he was shut down by Panthers CB Josh Norman in Week 1 so temper expectations.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars - The ‘lesser’ Allen was the one that scored last week but he is still being heavily out-targeted by Robinson. Still in a matchup where the Jags are expected to play from behind I expect Hurns to have some big opportunities. He could certainly give flex value here.

Frank Gore, RB, Colts - Outside of last week against the Pats the Jags have looked very good against the run. I’m not sure which Jags defense we will get because they will be focusing on Andrew Luck. That may open up the run game for Frank Gore, who is looking better every week. I think he makes a very good start despite some concerns about the matchup.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jags - Yeldon has managed just a 3.2 YPC so far so it’s hard to trust him. On one hand the Colts have given up 4 rushing touchdowns so this may be his best chance yet to score. On the other hand they are only allowing 3.6 YPC and have not allowed a 100 yard rusher yet this season. I see Yeldon as a low-end RB2.

Giants @ Bills - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Karlos Williams, RB, Bills - It looks like there is a very high chance that Williams will start in place of LeSean McCoy. I’m really excited for this because I own him in a couple places for one, but he has also flashed some explosiveness already. Williams’ 7.8 YPC is easily the highest of anyone with even just 10+ carries. The Giants are not a great defense so Williams should be able to put up big numbers. He is a must-start (unless McCoy is a surprise active of course).

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills - At this point I’m a Tyrod believer. He has a 74.4% completion rate with 7 touchdowns in three games. He can add 4+ points as a rusher in any game as well. Even with Sammy Watkins probably out here, I like Tyrod a lot. The Giants have given up the most passing yards through three weeks.

Charles Clay, TE, Bills - Clay should get a nice bump without Watkins. His 7 targets last week were a season high. The Giants have given up high yardage to tight ends in every game so far and I have Clay in my top 10 this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Eli Manning, QB, Giants - The Bills have actually given up the second most passing yards, behind only their opponent this week. Of course, 466 of those yards were from the unstoppable Tom Brady. I focus more on the fact that the Bills are allowing just a 57.6% completion rate, fourth lowest in the league. For Eli Manning it’s either a couple late scores or bust and that scares me away.

Notable Players:

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants - I expect OBJ to be fine but I wouldn’t call it an easy matchup. He’s still a WR1.

Giants RBs - This situation is pretty messy. There is no real favorite between Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams. Neither is averaging more than 3.3 YPC. Shane Vereen is the closest thing to consistency as the receiving back. But even then his reception totals have been: 4, 8, 0. I still think Vereen is a solid PPR flex but otherwise I’m avoiding.

Percy Harvin, WR, Bills - Harvin has caught 16 of 18 targets this season making him a pretty good PPR play. With Watkins out, Harvin gets a definite bump in a nice matchup here.

Panthers @ Buccaneers - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - This defense isn’t going to stop Cam Newton. Make sure he is in your lineups.

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers - Cam’s top target should have no problem catching six plus and finding the end zone. The only other time the Bucs faced a fantasy relevant TE it was Delanie Walker and he put up 40 yards and a score in just over half a game.

Matchups We Hate:

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers - I’m assuming Evans will line up against CB Josh Norman who is fast emerging as a shutdown corner. Last week Evans saw 17 targets so if he gets that many he should have a strong day once again. Otherwise it might be tough sledding. I think he should still be in most lineups but he’s probably a low-end WR2 here.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers - Doug Martin hasn’t really done much this year. He has a 3.9 YPC and no touchdowns. Even without Luke Kuechly for the past two weeks (and it looks like he’ll miss this one) the Panthers have had a stout run defense. I’d probably avoid Martin here.

Notable Players:

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers - Lost in the disappointments of other aging receivers (Roddy White, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson), VJax has not exceeded 54 rec yards in any of the three games so far, even despite 0 yards from Mike Evans in the first two games. That’s troubling. Assuming Josh Norman is on Evans, that should allow VJax to get a nice number of targets but I see him only as a flex play here.

Eagles @ Redskins - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles - I thought Jordan Matthews did alright in a tough matchup. He caught 6 of 7 targets even though it was only for 49 yards. The rest of the Eagles WRs caught 0 passes. Weather permitting (potential hurricane rains?) I think he’ll have a really nice game this week.

Matchups We Hate:

DeMarco Murray / Ryan Mathews, RBs, Eagles - Believe it or not the Redskins have given up the fewest rushing yards to running backs so far while also allowing just a 3.1 YPC. I think the addition of NT Terrance Knighton is a big part of that so I am certainly buying into it to an extent. I still like DeMarco to lead the team in carries this week and he is the one I would start if you own either but I’m not expecting too much.

Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins - For whatever reason the Eagles have always stopped tight ends in the Chip Kelly era. They currently have a 17 game streak without allowing a touchdown to a tight end. Jordan Reed has never had more than 38 yards against the Eagles in three games. This year certainly feels a little different so I could see some decent yardage but don’t expect a score.

Notable Players:

Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles - I do think he turns it around at some point but I don’t have the confidence to start him here. Especially if the weather is bad.

Matt Jones / Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins - After last week I’m pretty sure Matt Jones is the more startable of the two. I’d consider him a low-end RB2 due to the continued uncertainty between the two. I definitely don't have enough confidence to start Alf after the touch split last week.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins - He’s had at least 5 catches in every game so he definitely has some PPR appeal. I would guess he gets something around 6 for 70 here.

Raiders @ Bears - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders - Carr looks much improved this year and this is a really nice matchup. He is on the verge of QB1 territory here and very streamable.

Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders - Along with Carr, Cooper has looked great. This week against the Bears he is a must start

Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders - The Bears have allowed at least 87 RB rush yards in every game. That includes over 100 to UDFA Thomas Rawls last week. Murray should have no problem putting up RB1 numbers here.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears - Forte is the one Bear I’d feel really good about. He is the focus of the offense. I was surprised he had no catches last week but I don’t expect that to continue.

Matchups We Hate:

Nothing! Neither defense scares me much.

Notable Players:

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - Jeffery should return this week and he is a low-end WR2/flex play. With Jimmy Clausen throwing and Alshon probably not 100% I can’t expect typical Alshon numbers but the Raiders secondary is pretty bad.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - Again, not super confident with Jimmy Clausen throwing but you are probably starting Bennett here.

Texans @ Falcons - Sunday 10/4 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans - Hopkins has had 11+ targets in every game. That puts him tied 3rd most in the league. When you have that many targets you’ll have a good game almost every time. Start him.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons - Simply unstoppable. ‘nuff said.

Matchups We Hate:

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons - I know, I know - he just had a monster game. Let’s see how he does against J.J. Watt. The Texans even managed to mostly contain Jamaal Charles so I just don’t see a repeat performance for Freeman. I do think he can be a low-end RB2 but that’s it.

Notable Players:

Arian Foster, RB, Texans - Foster will be a game time decision. If he plays I think he should be in your lineups against a defense that let Joseph Randle score three touchdowns last week (and then shut him out for a half). If Foster sits, Alfred Blue is a low-end RB2 play.

Chiefs @ Bengals - Sunday 10/4 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals - Honestly, he looks great right now. Those that gambled on him in drafts (vs a guy like Sam Bradford) have been rewarded. The Chiefs do have CB Sean Smith back this week but I think Dalton should play well.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals - I’m not expecting 200 yards again but I don’t see anyone that can shut Green down here.

Matchups We Hate:

Bengals RBs - Hate is a relative term here because I think both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard can be startable but not great starts. I am still (perhaps foolishly) a believer in Hill and I think he can score in any given week. This is a very tough matchup. The Chiefs are very stingy and that includes holding RBs to just 8 catches through three games. Expect Giovani Bernard to possibly come back to Earth this week.

Notable Players:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs - The Bengals did a good job shutting down Justin Forsett and Latavius Murray but Jamaal Charles is mostly unstoppable. Maybe it won’t be a top 3 day but it should still be a good game.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs - It took a ton of throwing in the second half to get Maclin a good game (and a Chiefs WR touchdown!). I think that is what he will need this week as well. I have him around WR20.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - Kelce has done a fine job in every game so far but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. I think most owners were hoping for more frequent touchdown scoring. That could certainly happen this week but the Bengals have yet to allow a tight end to score.

Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals - Previously teams could beat up on the Chiefs #2 CB but with Sean Smith coming back and everyone getting bumped down, that may not be the case anymore. I think Jones is still a solid flex play.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals - The Chiefs have not allowed more than 33 yards to a tight end yet but Eifert should beat that. Even though he had a 0 last week he was incredibly close to having a touchdown but it was denied due to the catch rule. I think Eifert has a good chance for a top-five day.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]