RADIO
Josh Leonard teaches us about fantasy baseball magic with dark horse picks of outfielder Avisail Garcia and first baseman Steve Pearce.
Conspire With ROIDS
As we begin cycling off our first official ROIDS program, I want to direct your attention away from fantasy baseball for a moment. A popular Katy Perry song goes: “So you wanna play with magic? Boy, you should know what you’re falling for. Baby, do you dare to do this? 'Cause I’m coming at you like a dark horse.”
The pop goddess has conspiracy theorists convinced she wrote this song as a tribute to Satan and the Illuminati. Crazy, right? My theory actually takes it another step. Perhaps, the Illuminati play fantasy baseball? In typical Illuminati fashion, they use pop culture to spread their message-- in this case, fantasy baseball sleeper advice.
Why else would KP have embedded so much secret elite draft advice into her hit song? The good news is, you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to understand what it all means. So in honor of Katy and her devotion to the Illuminati’s interest in fantasy baseball, I have named the D in ROIDS, after her hit song, Dark Horse.
“So you wanna play with magic?”
Well yes Katy, I do. But first you have to know how to find draft magic. Draft magic comes from the eye test. It comes from clues hidden in the comment sections in local sports news. It also comes from advanced statistical analysis. It’s most importantly the magic you feel deep in your plumbs, like a gut feeling. It’s the only reason I was able to predict Michael Brantley’s outbreak in 2014 (I have no proof of this).
At the start of the 2014 season Razzball projected Brantley, then 26, to hit 13 HR and 73 RBI with an OPS of .768. He ultimately nearly doubled his home run projection, had 97 RBI and a .890 OPS. My point is, projections aren't guarantees.
So who knew about Brantley?
Besides me? The small amount of people in Cleveland that religiously watch the Indians play. You find them in the comment sections of local sports stories. Whenever Brantley was under-ranked or underestimated, Indians loyalists would come out of the woodwork. They all knew he was legit and weren't wondering if he would break out, but when. I tend to pay attention to stuff like that.
Magic in Action
So, who has the Katy Perry Dark Horse Magic in 2015? Look no further than Avisail Garcia, outfielder for the Chicago White Sox. Ever watch him play? He passes the eye test. Ask anyone in the South Side of Chicago, and they know what I mean.
His potential 20/20 bat, plus Steamer’s enticing prediction of .282/.336/.479 and 17 HR, 67 RBI is eerily similar to Brantley in 2014. Garcia is currently ranked around the 48th-best outfielder in standard drafts. At only 23 years old, he hasn’t reached his potential.
Garcia’s weaknesses are evident. He has a high swing rate and a tendency to flail at the plate. He’s posted minimal walk rates at every level of play. If he doesn’t improve at the plate, he is B.J. Upton. If he learns discipline, his speed and plus power makes him Shin-Soo Choo.
“Boy you should know what you're falling for. Baby do you dare to do this?” Katy Perry must have been looking into a crystal ball when she wrote those lyrics, because she's serenading me about drafting Baltimore’s Steve Pearce.
Over the 2014 season, Pearce managed a .263 ISO in 363 at-bats. That would would rank him seventh, just ahead of David Ortiz. His 17.5% HR/FB puts him in front of Todd Frazier and not far behind MVP Mike Trout. Additionally, in 383 at bats, Pearce’s 161 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created plus) would have ranked him 16th in MLB.
Steamer predicts very little regression in 2015, with 23 HR, 73 RBI and .270/.349/.467. He reminds me of a 2010 Jose Bautista, when Bautista was the dark horse. I’m not suggesting that you draft Pearce with the expectations of a Jose Bautista, that's crazy. But I think there is substantial draft value where he currently sits.
What I like best about the Joey Bats and Pearce comparison is that each swings a bat like an axe murderer. That's exactly what I want to do to my speakers when the Katy Perry song is playing.
Tune in next week to get your final butt injection of ROIDS, and as a bonus, my Dad will be making a special appearance. If you have any ideas, physical challenges or questions for him, please post them in the comment section.
Missed a letter? Find previous editions of ROIDS here: R O I.
