Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 9 - Jonah Coleman, Javonte Williams, more

November 7, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 9 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Welcome back to another deep dive into running back matchups for Week 9! This article has taken on a life of its own, leading me to uncover more info each week in an attempt to find the absolute best spots for backs every week.

Last week was largely successful in that we established that Jaylen Warren, Braelon Allen (who ended up not being very sneaky once Breece Hall was ruled out), and Bhayshul Tuten were all in tremendous spots. Javonte Williams was a letdown, but we even discussed the potential of Blake Corum here, who ended up having a very solid game as well. I'm going to do the extra data analysis that I added last week again to try to help us separate a few more spots from the rest of the field.

Let's see if we can figure out who we want to use in our lineups this week, shall we? Also, don't forget that this analysis and the data I collect can be applied to prop betting, too! You'll definitely find some of these players in my betting content as well. Alright, let's get into the Week 9 matchups already!

Week 9 Running Back Matchups

These are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. We now have EIGHT weeks of data, and larger sample sizes make our data more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, offensive schemes, projected role and usage, the quality of their opponent, and then taking an educated guess at the projected game script for each back this week.

Two Studs Lapping The Field

• Jahmyr Gibbs ($10K DK, $10.2K FD)
• Christian McCaffrey ($8K DK, $8.7K FD)

So I won't spend too much time on my analysis for these two backs for a few reasons. For one, you already know that they're absolutely elite fantasy studs who have high floors and massive ceilings every week due to their high-value touches.

Gibbs has been out of this world this year, averaging 30 DK points per game. He's averaging over 26 touches per game and has nearly a 90% share of the goal-line carries. The only reason that McCaffrey rates a bit higher is that Miami has been slowly improving against the run, while Vegas is going in the opposite direction.

We saw Braelon Allen run all over this Vegas front last week, and they're officially the worst-rated run defense in the league now. There are some concerns with McCaffrey's workload this week, given that he missed a big chunk of the Atlanta game and finished with just 13 total touches. But that game was two weeks ago; McCaffrey logged full practices toward the end of the week, and the Niners are once again without Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans. So I expect him to see 15-20 touches, and with his efficiency and this plus matchup, he's a tough guy to fade in cash contests.

Spending 18K on two players on DK seems like a lot, but we have a lot of value this week, and we really just need one more running back to feel good about for cash games. The rest of the group can be tournament targets, and I have some really fun candidates this week!

We Need More Data!

Some important definitions for the stats used.

• EPA/Rush = Expected Points Added Per Rushing Attempt
• YBC/Att = Yards Gained BEFORE Contact Per Rushing Attempt
• YaCo/Att = Yards Gained AFTER Contact Per Rushing Attempt
• Explosive Run Rate = Percentage of running plays where the defense allows 10+ yards

So I did this last week in an attempt to find some more additional support for or against the next group of backs in my ratings. Again, I included Blake Corum over Kyren Williams because the former is the only back I'll touch based on how they're priced and how they're currently splitting the work.

Corum is actually a cross-off for me based on how Washington has been considerably better against the run than the other opposing teams on our chart. I think I'm going to invest in some Rams passing stacks instead.

I wouldn't say Kenneth Walker III is a full fade by any means, but he's awfully expensive for what rates out as a decent matchup. He also has started to slowly lose a few touches to backup Emmett Johnson, which makes sense since he was never going to handle 30 touches per game all season if the Chiefs wanted him to be healthy and fresh for a playoff run.

The other back I'm going to skip writing up this week is Quinshon Judkins. I know that the Saints defense looks like the most appealing target, but Judkins has been flat-out terrible when you look at the advanced metrics. One big game against the Titans defense is really all he has to hang his hat on, and he also has Dylan Sampson back in the fold to steal passing-down work. He's cheap, and the matchup is great, but I simply like these other guys better.

Javonte Williams ($7,300 DK, $7,700 FD) 

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

The only thing I don't love about Williams this week is his price. However, being considerably more expensive than the value tier of backs is going to keep his rostership low, and the bad taste is out mouths from a stinker last week (24 carries, only 56 yards, just one catch, no touchdowns) is sure to keep some people away, too.

But that Arizona run defense is considerably better than the Colts (30th in DVOA), who were flattened by Bhayshul Tuten for 104 yards on only 16 carries. They also allowed him two big gains on receptions as Tuten finished with 55 yards receiving.

Bhayshul Tuten With The Jaguars Touchdown Run.

This Game Is 21-0 Now, And Jacksonville Is Running Away With It.

Duval Is Rolling. 🐆 https://t.co/lfj76MiYNd

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 1, 2026

The Indy defense continues to be shoddy tacklers; just watch that clip or a half-dozen others of backs ripping off long runs where they break multiple tackles. In Williams defense, last week his offensive line simply didn't open many holes. But the Colts' front seven is allowing the third-most adjusted line yards and the seventh-most yards before contact, so there should be more opening this week for Williams.

This is a GPP-only type play simply because it's hard to really predict this game script. The Cowboys like to pass and could get sucked into throwing the ball more if their tragically bad defense can't get stops. But we've seen Williams crush it in positive game scripts this season, too, and the Colts could easily pack it (as they did last week) if they go down big early.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD)

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos

Spoiler alert - I like both of the backs in this game. But Hubbard is the guy who is going to provide the most leverage, as Coleman looks like a much more popular play this week.

I often wonder what Hubbard could have done this year if Carolina was playing with both of their starting tackles, but Taylor Moton has been announced out for the season and Ikem Ekwonu has still yet to return to the lineup.

The good news, however, is that Carolina does get veteran Brady Christensen back from injury this week, and he'll help add some much-needed depth at guard as Damien Lewis is out again.

Despite all the injuries, the Panthers offensive line has done a respectable job, paving the way to four 80+ yard rushing totals for Hubbard this season.

Denver has been trending in the right direction as a run-defending unit, and held K9 in check last week. But they also allowed Emmett Johnson to catch five passes and rack up 128 yards and a touchdown as a receiver!

THE ROOKIE EMMETT JOHNSON WITH A 73-YARD TD

KCvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/sGCPC0rJYU

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

Chuba has been very good as a receiver this year, and has 11 catches in his last two games. Hubbard handled 96% of the running back touches last week in the loss to Green Bay and found paydirt for the sixth time in eight games. He's a very good back on a pretty surprisingly decent team in a...better than it looks on paper matchup!

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Jonah Coleman ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD)

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

I'm here for the Coleman value chalk this week! This is our third cash game back, and I don't think there's any reason to resist it.

Coleman has been very clearly the most dynamic back in Denver this year when healthy. Now that R.J. Harvey is out, he only has to compete with J.K. Dobbins for touches, and Dobbins has looked a step slow all season.

Coleman, meanwhile, has looked explosive, and this big play in the fourth quarter is really what helped Denver win a huge game against their division rival.

JONAH COLEMAN DOWN TO THE 4

KCvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/nRd1e0xIhC

— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2026

Carolina is 28th in yards before contact and 24th in adjusted line yards. They've also been bleeding touchdowns to opposing running backs in recent weeks, allowing six over their last four games and two TDs apiece in the last two weeks to Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving.

Coleman is just too cheap and too good not to smash into your builds. Devin Singletary looks like a late-week addition to the value running back conversation, but Coleman is my top play, and I think he'll easily pay off this price tag and could be in line for his biggest role of the season thus far.

Seth McGowan (5,000 DK, $5,900 FD)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

This is my Milly-Maker, large-field slate-winner this week (gosh, I hope). This matchup rates higher than any of the first three I discussed, but the questions surrounding the Colts backfield are what makes it seem like an unplayable spot.

Or is it?

Jonathan Taylor had just 12 touches last week against the Jags and continues to be one of the biggest potential trade targets in the league ahead of the deadline. This game is going to take place only two days before the deadline, and it would make zero sense for Indy to play Taylor much, if at all, and risk having him get hurt.

Sources around the league seem to indicate that the Colts are holding out for a big return, but I'm not sure what they gain in keeping him around in a lost season. Unless they've made up their mind and are done listening to offers (which I doubt), I think they'll be cautious with Taylor.

Enter Seth McGowan, one of the better NFL running backs you probably know very little about! McGowan's EPA per rush is comparable to Kenneth Walker III; he simply hasn't handled many touches this season. He's averaging only 4.6 carries per game for 20.4 yards. However, over the last five weeks, those numbers go up to 6.2 carries and 29.8 yards per game. He's also broken off a 10-yard (or longer) run in every one of those five games!

Let's not forget what Tyler Allgeier did to this Cowboys defense last week. Is Allgeier an elite running back, or is Dallas just a really bad run defense?

Tyler Allgeier breaks free for a 63-yard rushing TD!

AZvsDAL on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/PuMUPt7CLa

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2026

Nothing against Allgeier, but I think it's more of a case of the latter. They're 29th in EPA per rush attempt, 30th in yards before contact per attempt, 26th in yards after contact per attempt, and 23rd in adjusted line yards.

McGowan had only five carries last week, but he gave way to D.J. Giddens in the fourth quarter, who finished 6-43 in mop-up duty. I think McGowan has a real chance at 12-15 touches in a tremendous spot this week. The Colts may stink, but their offensive line is still good, and Dallas has shown us that they're ripe to be run over.

Good luck, everyone -- and thanks for reading.

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