Fantasy Football Buy-Lows? Unlucky Star Players (Week 5)

October 8, 2026

John's fantasy football buy-lows, breakouts, trade candidates to target for Week 5 in 2026. These unlucky players are underperforming early for fantasy football.

There are typically only a small handful of elite players who don't have extended stretches of mediocre or poor games and simply dominate all season. Those seasons become legendary in fantasy football lore, such as the 2019 season of San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey.

In his third year with the team that drafted him, the only time he scored single-digit PPR fantasy points was in Week 2. And he only scored under 20 points one more time that year. These performances are far and away the exception rather than the rule, though.

Even top-8 players at their positions have multiple low-scoring games during a season. When multiple of those happen consecutively, they can create a buy-low opportunity that can help reshape the playoff teams in your fantasy football leagues. With that in mind, let's break down five star buy-low players for fantasy football ahead of Week 5!

D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

Swift (hip/knee) had a monster debut this season. In Week 1, he scored 32.4 PPR fantasy points, carrying the ball 18 times for 124 yards and three touchdowns and catching one pass for 10 yards. Since then, he's been significantly quieter. But it's not all his fault.

The injury to quarterback Caleb Williams (hamstring) may not be the biggest factor here. In fact, Williams played most of Week 2 before getting hurt, and Swift only managed 12.9 PPR fantasy points in that game. The Bears backup quarterbacks have arguably played better within the structure of the offense, though they don't have Williams' rushing upside.

Jets' defense comes away with a 4th and goal stop!

NYJvsCHI on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/aSBLWuml0t

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

Swift was ever-so-close to having more touchdowns in the three games since Week 1. You shouldn't blame him for bad luck at the goal line; both teams are fighting over inches of turf, and often, the carries there can go either way.

Swift plays a big role in his team's offense, but his current injury is likely holding him back. Bears backup RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) capitalized on additional opportunities in Week 4, rushing 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns and catching a pass for four yards.

If he misses Week 5, you could get him for even cheaper. It's a wise move to make, as he's the lead back in one of the NFL's best offenses and runs behind an excellent offensive line.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Downs was thought to be in line for a bigger role in his team's passing offense due to the injuries to Colts WR1 Alec Pierce (heel) and Keenan Allen (groin), who both missed Week 4. Downs has popped in efficiency and separation per-route metrics for multiple seasons now, and there was talk of him playing more in 2 wide receiver sets this year.

Instead of a breakout game, we saw Downs targeted just four times, catching three of those passes for just 16 yards. Downs was outproduced by both Ashton Dulin and Laquon Treadwell in Week 4.

Josh Downs Route Running. https://t.co/nDEwFDKnUq

— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 21, 2026

It's hard to fathom that a player who's so obviously a great route-runner and separator, both on film and according to advanced separation metrics, could be so uninvolved in an NFL offense. Gaining fewer yards than Dulin and Treadwell was just insult to injury for fantasy managers.

The Colts offense has been unproductive, though. Quarterback Daniel Jones doesn't look anywhere near 100 percent after tearing his Achilles tendon last season. What's confusing is how he just wasn't looking Downs' way often, even when the slot WR was open. And he was open a lot.

Fantasy managers who drafted him should hang on to him, even if it seems like there's no hope. And there's a nice buy-low opportunity now, because he's perhaps the biggest example of a discrepancy between talent and production for a healthy WR right now.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers offense will probably be in hell for the next few weeks. In Week 4, starting QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) couldn't play because of a thumb injury he suffered in Week 3. He'll be out at least two more weeks, according to reports.

In his absence, the team's receivers did virtually nothing for fantasy football. Bucs WR1 Emeka Egbuka caught just two passes for 13 yards, so that puts it into perspective. Undrafted free agent backup Jalon Daniels mustered just 148 passing yards and threw two interceptions.

His lone touchdown pass came on a dump-off throw to backup RB Kenny Gainwell. Irving was already in a difficult position to start the season. The offensive scheme has already looked lackluster, and Mayfield may still be dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury.

Jalon Daniels' first career TD! 🙌

@GBvsTB on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/MKQijt4XeA

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

But without Mayfield, Irving is in a nearly impossible situation to succeed in. The offense isn't productive enough to overcome. And with two more games of Daniels starting, fantasy managers who drafted Irving may get impatient.

It would be wise to see the forest for the trees here. Irving probably doesn't have the upside he had his rookie season, as he hasn't been able to replicate his success from when Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay. But he probably won't be scoring single-digit PPR fantasy points every game.

If you need an RB2 with later-season upside, Irving is worth pursuing in a trade.

Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears

Burden has led the Bears in target share this season, and ranks 15th in the NFL among receivers in that metric. He leads his team in targets through four games, though he's just behind WRs Rome Odunze and Kalif Raymond in receiving yards.

Raymond has been a big surprise this season -- through the first three games, he was the team's most productive fantasy pass-catcher. But that may be more of an aberration than anything, and Burden has re-established himself as the team's top target. With 17 targets in his last two games, it's reasonable to think that better days are ahead.

LUTHER BURDEN III TOUCHDOWN ON THE OPENING DRIVE!

@PHIvsCHI on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/nIcigJhv1e

— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2026

His lone touchdown this season featured him staying upright through multiple tackle attempts and pushing the pile like a running back into the end zone for a score. Bears head coach Ben Johnson's scheme emphasizes taking the easy completions, like those to Burden, and letting the pass-catchers do work after the catch.

Johnson has been good at scheming them open. The big problem here is Bears starting quarterback Williams' strange unwillingness to take those easy completions and continue forcing the ball downfield, even though he's one of the least accurate deep passers in the NFL.

Caleb Williams' accuracy is just so bad. Multiple terrible misses on easy throws every game. https://t.co/EK0yL63PTg

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 13, 2026

If he threw to the pass-catchers Johnson schemes open regularly, Burden would probably have broken out in Week 1. We'll see how things shake out, but when he actually got significant targets last season, he was very productive. Buying low on him in hopes things get better is a solid move.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Denver Broncos

We've seen numerous high-profile examples of talented wide receivers being dealt to new teams, assimilating themselves into the new offense, and immediately becoming elite fantasy players. One good example of this is Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams, who finished as the WR9 in PPR fantasy leagues.

Waddle's move to the Broncos was seen as such a move -- he'd now only have to compete with an aging WR Courtland Sutton in an offense run by future Hall of Famer and offensive-minded head coach Sean Payton, and would be getting a quarterback upgrade by catching passes from QB Bo Nix.

Jaylen Waddle's first TD as a Bronco!

DENvsSF on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/Z4yGw8NGYk

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026

But it took him four games to score his first touchdown with his new team, and he managed just one catch for two yards in Week 1 and two catches for 10 yards in Week 3. His worst two-game sample had him total only 7.6 PPR fantasy points.

He has 23 targets in his last three games, so there's reason for optimism. He caught only two of his seven targets in Week 3, so he and Nix could develop better chemistry as the season goes on. Nix has struggled greatly since offensive coordinator Davis Webb has taken over playcalling.

#Broncos coach Sean Payton will be more heavily involved in offensive play-calling this week, sources told me and @MikeGarafolo.

The process will remain collaborative, with OC Davis Webb continuing to be a major voice on game day & during the week. But Payton will have say. https://t.co/H7YBs1k4vt

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 8, 2026

Denver is already making changes in that regard, and it's reasonable to assume that Payton being more involved will help Nix play better, which will boost the passing offense. Waddle is good enough to be the clear WR1 in this offense -- Sutton's play has fallen off a cliff this year, and it's obvious who their most talented wideout is.

If Payton can help the Broncos offense return to last season's effectiveness, Waddle could be in for a big year. This could be the lowest his value sinks all season, making him a great buy-low player to snag.

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